The world is like playing cards, sometimes the cards are good, sometimes the cards are bad, but as long as the game is opened, the good and bad have to be played.
Obviously, this year's corn hand is not very good, or not very good, but very bad.
Corn from the beginning of the harvest, it is ruthless**, and the more and more fierce, in this short period of two months, hit a low in the past two years, and some areas have broken through the cost line.
MoreoverThere aren't many cards available in Corn's hand this year either.
Like likeThe international grain price card of previous years has become invalid this year.
In the first two years, the international corn ** rose, and the import cost exceeded the domestic cost, which also boosted the domestic market sentiment and bullish expectations.
However, with the decline in international food prices, the continuous decline in import costs, and the continuous increase in imports, the story of imported corn can no longer be told.
Another example is that in the past two years, the policy has frequently thrown out "king fried" to boost corn gas.
But this year, with the purchase price of "Zhongzitou" continues to fall, not to mention the "king bomb", even an ordinary hard card is not counted.
As for the reluctance to sell, it is even more none.
Although no one is willing to see the corn straight line, they all want to sell it at a high price, but their pockets are not hard, and they really can't stand it.
Finally called back and forth,There is only one card left in Corn's hand, and that is the weather.
The weather card has been played twice this year by cornOne managed to stabilize the field, but the other failed.
It is said that the weather card has been tried and tested repeatedly in the past two years, because as long as the sky is powerful, traffic will inevitably be blocked, and the volume will inevitably go down, even if it can't rise, it can stabilize the downward trend.
ButWhy did it fail?
On the one hand, the weather changes in the previous round led to a backward shift in selling pressure, and the pressure surgedOn the other hand, the bearish sentiment is too strong, and the market frequently stages chasing up and down, and there is a phenomenon of immeasurable **.
But the weather card is a double-edged swordOnce it clears, the upper volume increases, and it is easy to fall again.
For example,Recently, the Shandong market is staging a "backlash" of the weather.
Shandong corn, which had just risen for a few days, suddenly turned around and fell sharply again, and did not even give the market a chance to react. And Shandong fell so sharply, the Northeast was also a little panicked, and the market just stabilized and was a little shaky.
However, the weather forecast shows thatDuring New Year's Day, a new wave of cold air will hit, and temperatures will begin to drop again in most parts of the north, while snow will fall again in places such as the northeast.
So,Will this weather card stabilize the big picture?
There may be a slight stabilization and recovery, but not for long, and risks are accumulating.
On the one hand, with the arrival of New Year's Day, some feed companies may usher in a certain demand for replenishment, but this amount will not be too large.
Because the pig price is still in the first place, and everyone is bearish about the follow-up corn market, it is difficult to have too much increment if it only maintains the rigid demand for storage.
On the other hand, it was in January that was even more worryingThe corn market in January is likely to increase both supply and demand, but the increase may be significantly greater than the increase in demand.
The increase in corn mainly comes from 3 aspects:
First, this year's corn has a bumper yield and increased income, and the corn itself is higher than last year.
Second, the progress of purchase and sales was slow, and the demand for realization increased before the year, resulting in increased selling pressure in January.
Originally, when the corn was just harvested this year, the progress of market purchase and sales was relatively smooth, but with the continuous development of corn and several rounds of blizzards blocking traffic, the progress of corn purchase and sales slowed down significantly.
As of the end of December, the purchase and sales progress of the major corn producing areas was slow compared with the same period last yearThe Northeast market as a whole is about 5% to 6% slower, while the North China market is 8% to 9% slower.
However, this year's corn production has increased again, and the grain sales in the bear market have become more anxious, so the overwhelming pressure has all surged into January.
The third is that although the weather can support the ** in stages, it will move the greater pressure back.
Judging from the impact of the last round of weather on the corn market, this is the case, although the short-term can stabilize the market, or even rise, but the price is to put greater pressure on the market outlook.
Therefore, this weather card may be able to stabilize ** for a short time, butIn the long run, the selling pressure cannot be released, and no matter when it moves, it will be a "bomb" for the corn market.
This year's corn is destined to be a rainy night boat.
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