Hello everyone, welcome to today's Tianxia Ping Shuo program.
According to a report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, then in the past three months, Ukraine's allies, including the United States and EU member states, have seen their aid to Ukraine fall to its lowest level since the start of the war, so is the spring of war coming for Russia?
According to a German research institute, they tracked more than 40 countries that provide ** to Ukraine, and they found that in 2024, there are more than 20 countries that have clearly stated that they will continue to support Ukraine to continue to fight, that is, about half.
The other half of the countries, he did not say that they would not support Ukraine in 2024, but did not put forward a plan to support Ukraine in the new year. And in the past three months, the United States and other NATO members have also supported Ukraine at its lowest level since the start of the war.
His report has aroused a lot of attention, we have been saying since September this year that the battlefield in Ukraine has undergone subtle changes, from the British *** spokesman said that Ukraine should be grateful to the United Kingdom for its efforts, not for nothing.
Slovakia** also unilaterally interrupted aid to Ukraine, and a prime minister in Italy drank and talked nonsense, saying that he was tired of the so-called aid to Ukraine.
We look at this situation to show that there have been subtle changes in Russia and Ukraine, and we have mentioned this many times since September, and today, this is even more clear.
What is the reason provided by many countries, that Ukraine has not achieved further expansion results in the battlefield, so we want to stop or reduce aid.
Now that both Russia and Ukraine are in a state of exhaustion, then Ukraine, due to the limitation of comprehensive national strength, may suffer greater losses.
It is almost universally recognized that the number of people killed on both sides of the war is higher than that of Russia, compared with the data on various war losses, but the number of people killed in Ukraine is higher than that of Russia.
So for Russia, did he usher in spring, and what is the reason for all this?
First of all, the first is that Russia is a nuclear power after all, and the United States can only do it step by step by strategically squeezing Russia, and it is impossible for him to crush Russia all at once, and it is impossible for him to do this.
This round he has already got Sweden and Finland, and has de facto included Ukraine in NATO, so his basic goal has been largely achieved in this round.
Second, the start of the Arab-Israeli war in the Middle East and Russia's obvious tilt toward China since September this year have also aroused the vigilance of the United States.
From the point of view of the United States, that is to say, Russia's economic recovery has shown certain signs this year, especially since the second half of the year. China's ** is likely to exceed more than 200 billion this year.
China and Russia have been saying since ten years ago that they will let China and Russia's ** exceed 200 billion, but the result has not been realized.
But just after the West imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia and Russia fully opened up its first to China, you can see that the first amount of China and Russia quickly exceeded 200 billion.
This shows that Russia has accelerated its economic tilt towards China, which has aroused the vigilance of the United States.
All this shows that this round is not only the close exchanges between the two countries and military industrial enterprises, but also the deepening of exchanges between the Russian people's society and China with the opening up of society. This cannot fail to alert the United States.
We have proposed before that the three red lines of the United States to determine Russia, whether they are the four regions of eastern Ukraine, Crimea, or Belarus, have not seen it, netizens, please go back and take a look. In other words, Russia cannot be allowed to fully turn to China, which is also a strategic consideration of the United States.
The third is the impact of the Arab-Israeli war. So Israel's retaliation activities still go beyond the need for self-defense, and it is said that Israel has the ability to retaliate, but at present, retaliation is indeed more than legitimate defense. So the United States also has to devote more energy to the Arab and Israeli side.
So for three reasons, the United States has de facto acquired Sweden, Finland and UkraineThe second point is that Russia cannot be allowed to accelerate its fall towards China;The third point is to deal with the new Palestinian-Israeli war, and the United States and Russia have begun to ease up.
There are even German ** reports that the intelligence services of the two countries have begun to contact each other in private, which, we see, is also in line with the general characteristics of the operation of great powers.
Generally speaking, because of the *** door negotiation it will arouse public concern. It is also a common practice for both parties, such as intelligence services, or other private departments, to first conduct secret contacts, and then rise to *** after a certain result.
Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian war, as we have judged since September, has basically reached an inflection point, and even if the war continues next year, it will generally form such a strategy of fighting and talking.
He will not be like in the first two years, basically fighting endlessly, and the intensity of the war will gradually subside, which is indeed a good thing for Russia.
Then is this war in Russia all right?Isn't that all right?Neither is it. The question of how Russia will end this war and how he will define Ukraine de jure is still very critical.
If this war, for example, is that there is no armistice agreement, and there is no peace treaty, and the two sides acquiesce to the facts to end it, then 5 or 10 years later, the United States will again talk about the Ukraine issue to continue to squeeze Russia, which is a sure thing.
Therefore, how Russia can successfully end this war is the most important thing for him, and Russia launched this war, so how Russia can end this war decently and legally is the key to him.
In my opinion, that is to say, if Putin is in power, then the process will continue for a long time, because the so-called expansion of territory by establishing the image of a political strongman is itself Putin's political legitimacy.
His ability to win 70 or even 80 percent of the popular support is not unrelated to the image he has created as a political strongman. Therefore, if he continues to govern, he will completely ease up with Ukraine, and the process will be greatly delayed, and if he does not continue to serve as the first in 2024, the new generation of national leaders may quickly solve the problem with Ukraine.
So is it better for Putin to be re-elected or not to be re-elected?I think it may be better for him to gradually withdraw from the throne of **, just to achieve the so-called semi-retirement.
For example, Putin elects a new prime minister by serving as prime minister for another term, and then he serves as prime minister for another term, and then completely retires to the next term, or he serves as the chairman of the committee for another term, and then fully retires, gradually retiring, which may be good for Russia and for him, and it is also a good thing for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Zelensky** Over there, it may also be like this, the recent conflict between him and the so-called Minister of Defense may not only reflect the contradictions and conflicts between the two of them, it may imply that the West may use the Minister of Defense to knock Zelensky's meaning.
Let's just say that the battle is about the same, and if the price offered by Russia is right, then this round will end here.