Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Huatai ** released a research report saying that the total sales of air conditioners in November were +9 year-on-year9%, continuing to increase positively (total sales volume in October +77%）。Among them, domestic sales were +3 year-on-year5%, compared with the year-on-year growth rate in the previous two months (domestic sales in September and October were -20 year-on-year1%/-4.5%）。Although as the temperature drops, air conditioners have entered the off-season market, due to the demand for early stocking by enterprises, the actual domestic sales in November are better than the scheduled production. According to industry data, the production of household air conditioners in December was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6 over the same period last year8%。
Looking forward to December, taking into account factors such as the off-season of air conditioners and the collection of goods in the domestic market in the first half of the year, the bank expects that domestic sales may still be in the seasonal stage. In terms of exports, with the recovery of overseas market demand, the advantage of the RMB exchange rate may still exist, so the bank expects that the export of air conditioners in December will still be optimistic under the influence of last year's low base.
Huatai** views are as follows:
Domestic sales of air conditioners in November 2023 were +3 year-on-year5%
According to industry** data, domestic sales in November 2023 were +35%, the growth rate returned to positive (-4 year-on-year in October.)5%), a significant increase from November 2019 (+2.).7%）。Based on the data from January to November, domestic sales were +14 year-on-year3%, compared to +9 from January-November 20191%。On the one hand, the momentum of real estate bottom repair continues, and offline consumption is limited due to the epidemic in the same period last year, and the consumption under home lines has recovered significantly. In addition, the company's stocking demand is ahead of schedule, and the actual domestic sales and shipments in November are better than the production schedule. From the perspective of brand performance, the share of CR3 domestic sales from January to November was -3 year-on-year7pct (1-10-1.)6pct）。
Air conditioning exports in November 2023 were +16 year-on-year8%
Since the year-on-year growth rate turned positive in May, air-conditioning exports have maintained a high growth rate for half a yearHowever, compared with the previous three months, the year-on-year growth rate of air conditioning exports in November narrowed slightly (export sales from August to October were +27.).5%/+25.3%/+26.9%）。As overseas demand continues to pick up, cross-border e-commerce platforms have improved the performance of the holiday shopping season by holding first-class activities, increasing traffic investment, and improving service levels. At the same time, in the short term, with the advantage of ** and exchange rate, the export growth of the Belt and Road countries and the third world's most populous countries has increased significantly. Based on the data from January to November 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of exports continued to improve month-on-month (+61%, exports from January to October +5 year-on-year1%), +17. from January-November 20191%。Considering the impact of the low base of exports in the second half of the year and the good performance of the holiday shopping season, we expect exports to remain positive. In addition, the share of CR3 exports from January to November was -4 year-on-year9pct (1-10-3.)1pct）。
Domestic sales may still be in the seasonal** stage, and exports still maintain double-digit growth
According to Aowei Cloud Network, the cumulative online and offline sales of air conditioners in the first 50 weeks in China were +14 year-on-year6%/-2.5%, compared with the first 46 weeks, the online year-on-year growth rate declined slightly, and the offline year-on-year decline narrowed slightly (the cumulative sales volume of online and offline KA in the first 46 weeks were +15 year-on-year3%/-2.7%）。Since December, the temperature has gradually dropped, the demand for air conditioners has fallen, and the Double 11 promotion has suppressed short-term demand, and the enthusiasm for online transactions has dropped slightly. However, the successive introduction of favorable policies for real estate, coupled with the restrictions on offline consumption caused by the epidemic in the same period last year, made offline consumption show a recovery trend. However, considering the reduced dependence of consumers on big promotions and the early release of demand in the first half of the year, we believe that looking forward to December, domestic sales may still be in the seasonal** stage. In addition, with the recovery of overseas market demand, the demand performance of the Belt and Road countries and the third world's most populous countries is relatively positive, the growth of orders in emerging markets is good, and the sharp decline in international freight rates this year, the low RMB exchange rate and other factors, the export recovery trend may continue, driving the overall growth of the air conditioning market.
Risk Warning:
The prosperity of the air-conditioning industry has declined more than expected;Intensified competition in the industry;Risk of declining export orders.