Project Sword
How the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends is becoming a focal issue. Recently, Russia has released a very unexpected rumor in a very good situation, and Putin seems to want to let Zelensky go.
But judging from various news, this kind of "smoke bomb" released by Russia is another Western army.
Recently, a number of "sources" said that Russia's Putin privately expressed his openness to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but the precondition for a ceasefire is that Russia can continue to control four places in eastern Ukraine and occupy about 20% of Ukraine's land. In exchange, Putin no longer seeks to get Ukraine Zelensky and is willing to continue to accept Ukraine as a sovereign state with Kyiv as its capital.
It should be said that this is the news released by the Kremlin to the outside world, but the United States and Western political circles are skeptical of the news that "Putin is leaning towards peace talks" and believe that it is not trustworthy.
Putin's way of operation, I am afraid that the West will not understand Putin's attitude seems a little surprising, and this is also the first time since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine that Zelensky has clearly stated his position on Zelensky's future. However, it is still important to note that this does not mean that Putin has compromised on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, because this statement does not contradict Russia's goals that were made public at the beginning of the war.
In fact, Russia has never changed its goal of "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine, and has even increased its territorial claims to Ukraine.
Even in the most critical situation facing the Russian army, Russia has never let go of its strategic goals. Therefore, if the West sees Putin's statement as a softening of attitude, it will be playing the trick.
Putin, the pro-Russian armed force in eastern Ukraine, seems to want to let Zelensky go, but in fact he has given the West and Zelensky a step down. On the one hand, Ukraine's "independence" is a very good condition for the West, and the creation of a buffer zone with Russia now seems very necessary.
On the other hand, the biggest threat to Zelensky's position at the moment does not come from Russia, but from the competition for power within Ukraine. Although the Russian army controls the initiative on the battlefield and has a military advantage, with the current strength of the Russian army and taking into account the will of the West, the possibility of Russia taking down Kyiv and overthrowing the Zelensky regime is very slim.
However, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny has the possibility of becoming the first, and according to the current Ukrainian poll data, Zelensky's support has fallen sharply, and Zaluzhny has achieved a reversal. If the election is held now, Zelensky is extremely likely.
In this regard, Zelensky refused to carry out ** on the grounds of "wartime". To a certain extent, Zelensky values his ** position, and if Russia promises to keep Zelensky's ** position, it may shake Zelensky's determination to "fight to the end".
Zelensky's future can be described as confusing, and Putin's statement of "letting Zelensky go" is also likely to be a "smoke bomb" for the West.
Because Putin's message in public and in private is not consistent. Publicly, Putin has sent an extremely strong message through channels such as his annual press conference, vowing not to withdraw troops until the goal is achieved, and his private openness, if not contradicts the substance, is a diametrically opposed signal.
This contrast makes it impossible for the West to figure out Putin's true thoughts, thus achieving the goal of interfering with the West's strategic judgment. After all, the West has shown obvious fatigue with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and any "friendly" attitude of Putin may prompt the West to have more ideas of abandoning Ukraine.
On Russia's own side, Putin's openly tough stance can demonstrate a firm defense of Russia's national interests. Privately revealing an open attitude towards peace talks may be to reduce the pressure on Russia from the international community and appease some domestic sentiments.
In short, in the case of "who wins and who loses in Russia and Ukraine" has lost its suspense, there will be a lot of room for imagination in what way the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will "end the whole play". The final outcome may not be too surprising, but now all parties will continue to play fiercely for this outcome.