Project Sword
The United States has made a big deal about "multinational cruises" in the Middle East, but few have responded. It can be said that the United States has indeed dug a hole for itself to jump, and now it is Iran's turn to fight a turnaround.
The recent Houthi blockade of the Red Sea has resulted in attacks and damage to several ships heading to Israel, and several merchant ships have even been captured by the Houthis. The Suez Canal, an international waterway, has become unsafe in the eyes of some shipping companies, and many merchant ships have made a detour to the Cape of Good Hope to avoid being attacked or accidentally injured.
Currently, about 12% of the world's shipping volume passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, so the blockade by the Houthis has had a huge impact on world shipping. If it continues for a long time, prices in various countries will usher in a wave of soaring, and the already fragile global ** chain system may be impacted again.
For Israel, this is tantamount to choking an economic artery. For the United States, inflation, which has finally stabilized, may soar uncontrollably, which will directly affect Biden's election results.
The Houthi commandos landed on board and captured an Israeli merchant ship, and in response, the United States decided to unite its allies to organize an escort formation to provide air defense and maritime defense for the passing merchant ships, codenamed "Prosperity Guardian".
It is worth mentioning that the United States currently has only 2 ** ships near the Red Sea that can be used to carry out escort missions, so its so-called call on allies to organize "multinational cruise" formations is likely to be a last resort.
And the U.S. military has shown no signs of launching a military strike against the Houthis or Iran, and is still trying to dissuade Israel from reducing the intensity of the conflict. It can be seen that the United States is unwilling to expand the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, still less is it willing to directly intervene in the chaotic situation in the Middle East.
However, if the U.S. military is only an escort, its effect is still limited, and the escort of ** does not completely guarantee 100% interception of anti-American missiles and drones, and as long as there is a risk of being attacked, many merchant ships will not carry out such an adventure.
The most effective way is to eradicate the threat at the source, but this means that the US military must launch an attack on the Houthis and even Iran, which is a situation that the United States is extremely unwilling to see now, so the so-called "multinational cruise" does not really solve the problem, and is essentially a demonstration of the attitude of the United States to alleviate the unfavorable situation.
The US Navy destroyer USS Carney ambushed and patrolled in the Red Sea is interesting because the United States initially claimed that "more than 20 countries have joined the Red Sea escort alliance," but this bold statement was quickly slapped in the face. Most countries are only willing to send a few technical staff to participate symbolically, and eight countries are even reluctant to publish the list of participants.
This makes the U.S. "Prosperity Guardian" program a huge challenge, and without sufficient ally support, it will be very difficult for the U.S. Navy to be solely responsible for escort operations near the Red Sea.
I am afraid that the United States now has a profound understanding of what it means to "ride a tiger and it is difficult to get down."
Carrying out escort operations in the Red Sea requires a large number of advanced ships with high-performance air defense capabilities, but the United States is now unable to send a sufficient number of ships, and although some of NATO's ** have good air defense performance, most NATO countries are reluctant to assist, including Spain, France and Italy, which have advanced **. Only Britain and Greece have expressed their willingness to send a small number of ships to participate, but their air defense capabilities are relatively limited.
If the United States has no way to persuade more allies to join, then this "Guardian of Prosperity" is likely to go bankrupt, so it is not ruled out that the United States will turn its attention to the two allies of Japan and South Korea in Asia, which also have more advanced ** and are obedient to the United States. But if it reaches the point where only Japan and South Korea can join, the current "isolation" situation of the United States will be completely exposed.
The current embarrassment of the United States, an Israeli merchant ship that was hit, has made Iran's actions begin to become bold. A commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said recently that if the United States and its allies continue to commit crimes in the Gaza Strip, it could prompt the emergence of new resistance forces, at which point "the Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar and other waterways" could be closed.
In other words, taking advantage of the difficulty of the United States riding the tiger, Iran tried to "grasp" the United States in turn, which can be regarded as a turnaround.
In fact, Iran appears to have been involved in the attack on merchant ships. A "Israeli-related" merchant ship that was outside the range of Yemeni drone attacks was attacked, most likely by several "drone carriers" converted by Iran. Of course, Iran denied this.
However, if the United States and Israel continue to commit violence in Gaza, Iran's behind-the-scenes actions are likely to come to the fore, and at that point, the United States will have to intervene in this dispute in order to maintain maritime hegemony in the Middle East, which the United States absolutely does not want.