Do you know what the marriage rate is in 2023?According to official statistics, in the first three quarters of 2023, there were a total of 54450,000 couples have registered for marriage, and from this trend, it is estimated that less than 7 million couples will get married throughout the year, which is about 10% less than the 7.64 million couples in 2023, and the marriage rate in 2023 will be 522%。
According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 2023, China's marriage registration data will be 81310,000 pairs, which is the second time it has fallen below the 9 million mark after falling below the 10 million pair mark in 2023, which is also a new low since 2003 and is only 60% of the peak in 2013
Why are young people increasingly reluctant to get married?There are many reasons for this, such as economic pressure, lifestyle, psychological problems, etc., and the lack of long-term stable relationships may be the root cause.
Marriage is a very troublesome thing for many people, which involves the negotiation of both parents, wedding photos, wedding venues, photographers, makeup, etc., as well as various local customs, etc., which make young people think about it. Of course, the high bride price in many places directly dissuades most young people who want to get married, so the state has recently cracked down on the trend of comparing bride prices.
As the marriage rate decreases, so does the birth rate of newborns. On January 17, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics released population data showing that the net increase in population in 2022 was minus 850,000, that is, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 850,000.
As early as 2019, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences announced that the population would enter negative growth in 2030, and then adjusted to 2027.
Now, this time has been advanced by another 5 years.
It can be said that the population alarm in our country has been sounded, and it is time to introduce relevant interventions.
I wonder if you remember what a professor said about the topic of birth?A professor in Xiamen has proposed punishment for families who do not have children. This view has caused controversy as to whether the question of why young people are reluctant to have more children is just because of life pressure, or is there a deeper reason behind it?
To understand this phenomenon, let's take a look at some data:
In 2021, China added 480,000 people to the population, with 10.62 million births and a birth rate of 752, and the natural population growth rate is 034 , this year may usher in the first negative population growth. These figures hit a record low since 1962, showing a cliff in Chinese's population and birth rate**.
Behind this, in 2020, China's birth rate fell below 10 for the first time, at 852 , the natural increase in population is 145‰；The net increase in population was 5.3 million in 2018, 4.67 million in 2019, and only 2.04 million in 2020In 2021, there will be a net increase of 480,000 people. In the past few years, China's population birth data has been greatly improved, which can almost be said to be a cliff.
So, why is everyone reluctant to have children?Someone summed up several reasons:
The pace of life in the metropolis is too fast, and young people are so pressured by high housing prices that they have no time to think about having children every day.
Women's sense of independence awakens, becoming the elite of society, working hard to earn money for a better life and more right to speak, and even in order to have money to buy a house before marriage, and have a place to live after marriage.
The cost of raising a child is too high, and the cost of education is a huge burden that discourages many parents. In this regard, on the 11th, a joint document from Ren Zeping and a number of experts once again aroused widespread concern in the society. The article calls for vigorous birth subsidies to boost fertility rates, promote family growth, and promote the expansion of domestic demand. According to preliminary calculations, it is expected that about 1-3 trillion subsidies will be needed.
Experts believe that the most worthwhile investment at present is children, the current infrastructure investment tends to be saturated, manufacturing overcapacity, real estate supply is balanced, and there is excessive competition in education, but the investment in the number of children is not enough. According to the average monthly subsidy of 1,500 yuan per child, that is, the average annual subsidy per child is 180,000 yuan.
In order to solve this problem, the state has previously issued a document to further improve and implement active childbirth support measures, which mentions housing policy support, mainly including:
Public rental housing allocation is skewed;
Cities with conditions can appropriately increase the loan amount of the housing provident fund;
All localities may, in light of actual conditions, further study and formulate preferential policies for the implementation of differentiated leasing and purchasing housing based on the burden of raising minor children.
With the blessing of these three favorable policies, the financial pressure on parents is expected to be relatively reduced. Although these measures are of limited help, they can alleviate the financial burden on parents to a certain extent.
In fact, looking back, if we think about it, the disappearance of the demographic dividend is also a critical period for us to think about how to develop with high quality. Thinking about how to improve the well-being of young people's lives may be the most effective way to catalyze it.