to"Insight into new consumption trends and stimulate new consumption potential"At the consumption sub-forum of the 6th Hongqiao International Economic Forum as the theme, Mayor Huang of Chongqing made a speech to increase knowledge.
I have selected only one issue that deserves attention: China's economy must shift from an investment-led to a consumption-led one.
This truth is actually very simple, in general, investment is to create **, consumption is to create demand. China's economic situation is very severe, why are corporate profits plummeting?Why are all businesses laying off employees and cutting salaries?Why is the youth unemployment rate so high Why has the area of commercial housing sales dropped from 100 million square meters to less than 100 million square meters?All these whys, point to one thing: overcapacity.
Since it is overcapacity, it is inevitable to turn to consumption.
China has a population of 1.4 billion, who is the main consumer force?
It is a middle-income group of more than 400 million people, about 400 million people.
This volume is also very remarkable on a global scale, but when you calculate the proportion, many of China's data are at a low level, and Chinese's per capita GDP will catch up with and exceed the global per capita in 2021 So, what is the proportion of residents' income?is developed in the above.
Huang Qifan's data shows that China's urban residents have real estate debt alone as a proportion of household income of 1379%, higher than 90% in the United States, and also higher than 130% in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany;The average annual portion of debt service is equivalent to 15% of income, compared to 7 percent in the United States8%, Europe is generally 8%-9%. The income level is not high, but the house price is high and the interest rate is high, which locks the liquidity of residents' income
Mr. Huang just asked the question.
And then there is the second distribution shared by the whole people.
This is also an important aspect that affects residents' income.
The level of social security in China is also low;Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that the proportion of social security expenditure to GDP reached 3 in 202021%, compared to 2 in 202196%。And the proportion of European countries is as high as that. Whose responsibility is social security?
It is also a notoriously high tax system, which is taken from real estate and enterprises, and is used for the people. The two sessions proposed that the use of fiscal revenues for people's livelihood is now the case in the United States
To put it simply, it is not the market that determines the low proportion of residents' income, but the intensity of the fiscal effort to use it to the people.
Mr. Huang made an interesting arithmetic, in 2022, the disposable income of American residents accounted for nearly 70% of GDP, and China's is 43%, roughly 52 trillion yuan, if the proportion of residents' income, according to the strategic model based on internal circulation, increase to 10 percentage points on the basis of the current proportion, with China's GDP scale of 1210207 billion yuan in 2022, it should increase by 12 trillion yuan for residents' disposable income.
How to increase this trillion?
The epidemic in the United States has sent trillions of dollars, about one trillion yuan, and according to the per capita level, it is a trillion yuan multiplied by the population, and one trillion is really a piece of cake.
Mr. Huang has made another calculation, and really expanded the number of wage earners, who currently account for 60% of disposable income, so it is necessary to double the current 400 million middle-income people to 700 million or 800 million in the next ten years, and halve the number of low-income people from 600 million to 300 million, so as to achieve important structural changes.
Can this beautiful ideal be realized?
At the rate of growth of China's economy, it is possible to double in more than a decade;However, we also got a quantitative concept, and it was too difficult to increase income, and it took more than ten years of hard work. Why can't we reduce fiscal spending?Implement the spirit of the two sessions, use the fiscal revenue to establish a social security mechanism in medical care, education, pension and other aspects, liberalize real estate, and reduce loan interest.
It is very easy to raise the income level of residents, that is, to make profits with the people, and determine the housing price-to-income ratio, mortgage interest and social security according to the international normal standards, and there should not be a problem that is lower than the average level of Western countriesHowever, it is easy in theory, but it is difficult in practice, because, the current situation is. It is not enough for the finance to rely on enterprise tax alone, and it is necessary to rely on land transfer money, which is one trillion yuan per annum, and this trillion yuan will eventually be reflected in the sales of commercial housing.
Due to the decline in real estate sales, the local finances are collectively unable to make ends meet, and the most urgent task now is not to supplement the trillions of residents' income, but to issue special treasury bonds, replacing short-term debts with long-term debts, so that local finances can operate normally.
In this way, it is very difficult for Mr. Huang to raise residents' incomes by one trillion yuan.
As a result, the problem has become a bit absurd, the common people are counting on the fiscal to expand the redistribution shared by the whole people, while the fiscal is counting on the common people to desperately buy houses and support land transfer funds.
Who counts on whom?