The cycle of rapid economic growth has ended, so the average annual growth rate of 8% expected by Lin Yifu must be wrong;Not only that, but the problem to be solved in the future is not to maintain long-term, but to accumulate debt and overcapacity.
This is a phenomenon fraught with contradictions.
In the past, China was lucky to turn into debt, the economy was developing at a high speed, the tax base was expanding, and it was not a problem to use long-term debt to turn short-term debt into short-term debt, and to stabilize the debt ratio through taxation in the course of growthThe situation is different now, with a recession, a downward trend in growth since 2012, and overcapacity in the post-pandemic era.
Since it is overcapacity, it is difficult to promote production by expanding the fiscal deficit, so there are only two ways to solve overcapacity: one is to increase household income, and the other is to release production capacity to the world.
Ways to increase income: Employment
Increasing the income of residents is the common cry of all experts, and the question is how to increase it
Issuing money and issuing coupons?Huang Qifan said that China's disposable income will increase by 12 trillion yuan, and it will be balancedThis magnitude doesn't seem to be huge;The United States issued 5 trillion US dollars during the epidemic, about 35 trillion yuan, in terms of population, China wants to send to this level, when it is more than 140 trillion, can it do this?It is completely impossible, because what we need to do now is to turn into debts, and the collective income of local property throughout the country cannot make ends meet, and it is necessary to ensure the normal operation of local finances through the issuance of special treasury bonds and the conversion of long-term debts into short-term debts.
The ideal way to increase residents' income is to expand the middle-income group.
This statement is actually to increase the number of jobs in private enterprises.
The so-called middle-income people, that is, people with a monthly salary of more than 5,000 yuan, 85% of the employment supported by private enterprises The median line of its average salary is above 5000 per month, therefore, everyone is scolding and exploiting workers, this matter is still put aside, after all, material wealth has not reached the great richness that Engels said, political slogans can not replace the reality of the economy, the reality is that China can enter the middle-income country, mainly because of the contribution of private enterprises to employment, not only that, if China's economy wants to increase employment, it will still be dominated by private enterprises.
Huang Qifan said that it is necessary to double the number of middle-income people, that is, 400 million. Don't count on this magnitude in the short term, because now there is overcapacity, and what companies need to do is to shrink their balance sheets, lay off employees and reduce salaries.
So, how can China quickly get out of the big cycle of overcapacity?
A breakthrough in foreign trade will be a decisive choice
Expanding the middle-income group is unlikely in a cycle of overcapacity, so the most effective way is to increase production capacity through external demand.
Understanding this underlying logic, China has a better understanding of the policy, and China has made a statement: China-US relations can only be cooperated, not chosen.
Of course, the breakthrough of foreign trade is not more important than which country's negotiations, but whether China can accept the rules of international organizations, with the focus on CPTPP. After Trump withdrew from the group to protect the interests of American workers, Japan began to lead the promotion of the TPP, and the TPP was renamed CPTPP. On March 31, 2023, British Minister Badenoch announced that the United Kingdom officially joined the CPTPP as the 12th member state. According to the order of submission, the next one should be China.
China did not approve the application, and China has not given up its efforts.
China is studying more than 2,300 articles, and if it can cross the threshold and join the agreement, it can be said that it will be a major event of epoch-making significance.
How likely is this?
To name a thing: independent trade unions.
The CPTPP requires States parties to ensure workers' rights and rights, and requires workers to have the right to collective bargaining.
This article can be said to be aimed at countries that do not have independent trade unions, or more precisely, countries with different systems, because independent trade unions are not legally subject to institutional constraints.
Workers can form delegations to bargain with management and negotiate benefits, including wages. At present, China's trade unions are all workers' organizations under the leadership of the party and the party, which exist but are not independent, and the roles they play are not the same. Independent unions in the U.S. auto industry are demanding higher wages, because the industry is bumper and profitable, and the end result is that the management simply makes concessions.
Another difficult hurdle to cross is the elimination of non-market practices, and the CPTPP requires that the parties must be fully competitive markets.
State-owned enterprises compete fairly and cannot have special rights and policy dividends that are higher than the market.
This means that the monopoly of all state-owned enterprises will eventually be broken, and in the short term, communications, petroleum, aerospace, and finance will allow the private economy to settle in, and state-owned enterprises will not be able to obtain all kinds of subsidies, taxes, and bank loans, and compete with private enterprises under the same conditions.
The CPTPP is open to information and data.
The whole information will be fully opened, and the international Internet giants will return to operate in China, which may be more fundamental, because our current understanding of global information is not comprehensive.
In this way, if China accepts these terms, China's economic structure and social form will change in a century, how likely is it?
One thing is for sure, the CPTPP will not change the terms of the joint agreement, but will only make concessions to China on a limited scale.
CPTPP is the world's highest standard of free trade agreement, can pass the CPTPP threshold, China-Europe, China-US related problems are a matter of course.
Judging from the reality of China's economy, it is very important to break through foreign trade;From the perspective of real Chinese society, crossing the five thresholds of CPTPP seems to be beyond imagination.