According to the data from the National Economic Statistics Report for the first three quarters of 2023, we can see the comparison of the economic growth rates of advanced economies and large developing economies. The economic growth rates of developed economies such as Spain, Japan, Canada, and South Korea are relatively low, respectively. 5% and 11%。The economies of France and Italy grew at 07%, and the UK's economy grew by 05%, while Germany's economy fell by 04%。By comparison, the U.S. economy grew by 25%, which is at the leading level.
However, compared to large developing economies such as India, China, Indonesia, and Mexico, the US does not have an advantage in GDP growth. However, with the help of inflation and exchange rate factors, the size of the US economy rose sharply to 20 in the first three quarters$278 trillion, which actually extends its lead as well.
Against the backdrop of the global pandemic, a number of leading indicators have predicted that the U.S. economy is about to fall into recession, and many institutions** will experience a recession in the U.S. economy at some point in 2023. However, according to the official statistics of the US Department of Commerce, the development of the US economy has repeatedly exceeded expectations, successfully avoiding the so-called"Hard landing"。
In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by 19%, and the year-on-year growth rate expanded to 25%。In the third quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. economy further increased to 2.%.8%, and the annualized growth rate is as high as 52%, with no signs of recession at all. According to statistics, the economic growth rate for the whole of 2023 is highly likely to be 24% to 2The 5% range is clearly stronger than in 2022.
While other advanced economies face a friring outlook and a weak global economy, the U.S. economy is on its own. Even as other large developing economies struggle to meet market expectations, the United States has repeatedly delivered a report card that exceeds expectations. In"A recession is coming"The U.S. economy is bound to exceed $27 trillion and once again exceed a quarter of the global economy, remaining the only superpower. It can be said that the US economy is by no means a recession.
First of all, the assets of US residents are still in very good shape, and they have enough financial resources to spend. According to statistics, as of June this year, the balance of deposits of American resident households and nonprofit organizations reached 17056 trillion dollars, while the per capita savings per person are as high as 5$110,000. So much money may flow into the consumer market at any time, becoming the biggest driving force for US economic growth.
Second, U.S. residents have accumulated about $430 billion in excess savings during the pandemic, which are expected to last through the first half of 2024. In other words, private consumption in the United States will remain relatively vigorous in the next two to three quarters. Coupled with the fact that the income of the employed in the United States has risen more than the CPI, the additional boost will continue to support the growth of consumption.
In addition, investment is also one of the important reasons why the U.S. economy is not in recession. Residential investment, equipment investment, intellectual property investment, and inventory investment contributed 1. to U.S. GDP in the third quarter of this year82 percentage points, ranking second only to private consumption.
From Obama to Trump to the current Biden, despite the differences in the policy agenda, they have actively promoted the return of manufacturing to the United States, emphasized the consolidation of chain security, and included a number of emerging industries in the strategic development plan. The investment expansion effect brought about by these measures has become an important engine for American people's consumption, keeping pace with household consumption.
The U.S. economy showed strong growth momentum in the first three quarters of 2023, successfully breaking the recession narrative. The main reasons for this include the solid state of household assets, the accumulation of excess savings, and the driving effect of investment. The U.S. economy remains resilient and has exceeded expectations on several occasions.
However, we should also note that the U.S. economy still faces some challenges as the pandemic progresses further and the global economy is uncertain. For example, rising inflationary pressures, mutations of the coronavirus, etc., may have a negative impact on economic growth. Therefore, the United States** and relevant departments need to continue to remain vigilant and formulate corresponding policy measures to ensure the stable development of the economy.
From a personal perspective, I think the main reason the U.S. economy was able to emerge from a recession was its internal resilience and adaptability. As the core of the global economy, the United States has strong innovation capabilities and international competitiveness. In addition, the macroeconomic control of the United States and the vitality of the domestic market have also provided strong support for the economic recovery.
However, we should also note that economic growth cannot rely solely on private consumption and investment, but also needs to take into account the impact of the global economic environment and various external factors. Therefore, even if the U.S. economy is currently performing strongly, it is important to remain vigilant, closely monitor the development of the economy, and be prepared to deal with risks and challenges.