The United States' "core disease" cannot be **?The Chinese market does not want to be a lifesaver
According to the agency, in 2022-2023, the semiconductor market will begin to decline significantly. How big is this landslide, ** will drop by 20%+, possibly more than 20 years, which is the longest landslide cycle for semiconductors.
This recession will involve upstream materials, EDA, IP, semiconductor equipment and other leading companies, as well as wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, and the next integrated circuit factory, so all semiconductor companies are at risk.
As a wafer powerhouse, the United States occupies 50% of the global market, but it is also a dominant company in semiconductor equipment, EDA, semiconductor materials, intellectual property and other fields, so it has suffered from this recession"Core disease"。
Because chips are not easy to sell, ** is falling, Micron, Qualcomm, Intel, NVIDIA, AMD and other chip giants are all plummeting in performance, everyone is laying off employees, reducing production, and in the capital market, the market value has been cut in half.
The most important thing is that we don't know when the situation will improve yet, but according to the relevant agencies**, we will not see any improvement in the second half of 2023.
So, how do we ** American"Core disease"What about it?Many professionals say that they still have to rely on the Chinese market to treat their diseases.
First of all, according to Gartner market statistics, the global semiconductor market revenue will reach $595 billion in 2021. According to customs data, the value of chips imported by China in 2021 was about $440 billion.
What does this mean?Two-thirds of the world's chips will eventually be sold to the Chinese market, which is the world's manufacturing base for electronics.
The United States accounts for about 50% of the world's chip market, so its semiconductor output value is about 300 billion US dollars, in other words, chips from the United States, the Chinese market can actually be consumed, as long as the Chinese market is willing to buy.
As soon as this data is released, we can see what the problem is, the United States"Core disease"In the face of the huge demand of the Chinese market, it is nothing at all"Disease"As long as the Chinese market is willing, the chip factories in the United States can all be taken over by the Chinese market.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that in order to give American chip factories"Healing"In 2023, the United States will do everything in its power to find ways to get the Chinese market to buy American chips.
What tricks will appear?I think there may be price cuts**, such as Qualcomm news that chips will be reduced in 2023;There is also a suppression of China's main production capacity, such as not allowing the import of some key equipment, materials, technologies, etc., so that the domestic chip production capacity is reduced, so that more chips have to be imported;There is also the use of political pressure to force us to buy and so on.
But this time it will obviously not be so easy to agree, I hope that this time China's chips can withstand the pressure, work hard to develop themselves, improve the self-sufficiency rate of chips, reduce imports, and no longer help the United States"Core disease"。