In 2023, China's economy will rebound and high-quality development will be steadily promoted. Looking to the future, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges to further promote the economic recovery. In the coming 2024, how can China's economy strengthen its foundation and gather momentum to achieve a new leap?
From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing to comprehensively summarize the economic work in 2023, deeply analyze the current economic situation, and systematically deploy the economic work in 2024. In an interview with People's Daily Finance, a number of experts and scholars pointed out that the meeting reaffirmed the importance and necessity of reform and opening up, emphasizing that adhering to high-quality development is the "last word in the new era", reflecting the enterprising signal of focusing on development. At the same time, the meeting's judgment on the current situation is plain, objective and realistic, and many measures put forward around the nine key tasks next year are pragmatic and accurate, emphasizing the continuity and coordination of policies everywhere, reflecting the systematic and overall situation of decision-making.
To promote stability, first establish and then break, adhere to development, strengthen confidence and determination.
* The economic work conference pointed out that, on the whole, the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed, so it is necessary to enhance confidence and confidence. The meeting believed that it is necessary to adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era. The meeting demanded that next year, we should persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down.
Focusing on relevant expressions, the interviewed experts and scholars believe that the meeting sent a more positive and enterprising signal of stable development, confidence and strong determination, indicating that next year's relevant economic policies will pay more attention to precise efforts and effective implementation.
Wei Qijia, director and researcher of the Industrial Economy Research Office of the Economic Department of the State Information Center, pointed out that stable economic growth is the most effective "reassurance". In 2023, China's economic operation will maintain a positive momentum of recovery, laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected goals for the whole year.
Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyst of the research department of CICC, believes that the content of the meeting shows that economic construction is the central task and high-quality development is the primary task. At the same time, in this meeting, the fiscal policy compared with last year's "afterburner efficiency" more emphasis on "moderate afterburner", monetary policy from last year's "precise and powerful" adjusted to "flexible, moderate, accurate and effective", and in the expression of the emphasis on "social financing scale, monetary volume and economic growth and the level of expected goals matched", "promote the social comprehensive financing cost to stabilize and decline", on the whole, the relevant statements make the market feel a positive signal.
Pan Jiaofeng, dean of the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, explained that the emphasis on "promoting stability through progress" indicates that the policy orientation is to solve the problems of insufficient aggregate demand and weak expectations with the idea of development.
Through the content of the meeting to sort out the policy context, Wei Qijia believes that the continuity and stability of China's macroeconomic policies have not changed. "From the perspective of policy expression, they are all closely focused on promoting high-quality economic development, which particularly emphasizes that various policies should form a joint force and maintain the consistency of macro policy orientation. ”
Pan Jiaofeng said that overall, the meeting released a positive and enterprising signal. The meeting specifically pointed out that we should seize all favorable opportunities, make use of all favorable conditions, and get a good grasp of doing what we can, and do more if we can. This actually emphasizes the determination that no matter how the external environment changes, we must give priority to our own affairs with a positive attitude. He said.
Seeking truth from facts, seeking truth and being pragmatic, and making scientific decisions according to the time and situation.
Based on the present, the first economic work conference not only fully affirmed the "economic rebound", but also did not avoid the direct judgment of "difficulties and challenges". A number of experts and scholars believe that the conference embodies the spirit of seeking truth from facts, seeking truth and pragmatism.
*Wang Yukai, a professor at the Party School (National Academy of Administration) and deputy director of the Academic Committee of the China Administrative System Reform Research Association, said that the "next year's proposal to persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down" is particularly concerning. He believes that the four words of "first establish and then break", especially reflect the best time and situation, scientific decision-making, and provide exploration space and fault-tolerant mechanism for "in-depth reform and high-level opening-up".
Wang Yukai also observed that the meeting responded to a number of important social concerns and "prescribed the right medicine" for the problem. For example, the meeting emphasized that to promote the development and growth of private enterprises, a number of measures should be implemented in market access, factor acquisition, fair law enforcement, and protection of rights and interests. Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. "Facing the future, Chinese-style modernization needs more strong impetus, and such measures are conducive to further enhancing the confidence of private enterprises in the development of their careers. He said.
Wei Qijia mentioned that the nine key work deployments emphasized by the meeting also adhered to the problem-oriented and goal-oriented, and the direction was directly aimed at "continuously promoting the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth".
It is worth noting that this year's conference will "lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation" as the first item of key work. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and to develop new quality productive forces.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute at Tsinghua University, observed that the new term "new quality productivity" was mentioned at the meeting. He said that the new stage needs to open up a new track, and the new track can only be born by relying on innovation, and the above statement has made a closer combination of innovation and industrial relations.
The core of new quality productivity is innovation, and the carrier is industry. Zang Jiyuan, deputy director of the Manufacturing Research Office of the Strategic Consulting Center of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, analyzed that China is moving from the latecomer catch-up model of "introduction-digestion-absorption-re-innovation" to a new model of innovation-led development. In the future, it is still necessary to rely on innovation-driven to solve problems and promote development.
Dong Yu also observed, "The content of the meeting has created a lot of opportunities for everyone to 'let go and do it', and all parties, including local governments, should see the opportunity, be proactive, and do a good job in high-quality development, and I believe that they will continue to be supported by incentive policies." ”
Grasp the overall situation, make concerted efforts, dialectically unify and grasp the law of development.
Economic work involves many links, a wide scope, and a great impact. A number of experts and scholars believe that the economic work conference has strengthened the dialectical unity of multiple sets of important relationships, reflected the systematic and overall view of decision-making, and provided a formula and compass for precise and comprehensive policy implementation at all levels.
On the basis of 'seeking progress while maintaining stability' in the past, the meeting also put forward the idea of 'promoting stability through progress' and 'establishing first and then breaking down'. Among them, 'first establish and then break', is not only an important insistence on doing a good job in next year's economic work, but also a clear guide in the specific work. Wei Qijia said.
Yu Miaojie, deputy secretary of the Party Committee and president of Liaoning University, said that "promoting stability by progress" is one of the main lines of the policy keynote, reflecting the dialectical relationship between development and security - security is the premise of development, and development is the guarantee of security. Dong Yu also believes that "promoting stability through progress" is a new summary of the relationship between "progress" and "stability" in China's economy, and is a higher level of stability.
Pan Jiaofeng believes that the formulation of "first establishing and then breaking" reflects our current new understanding of the law of transformation and development. "Industrial transformation and upgrading cannot simply implement 'one size fits all', and we must beware of industrial hollowing and hollowing. In the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, it is necessary to wait for new industries and new kinetic energy to be 'established' first, and the direction is clear, so that we can do the work of 'breaking'. ”
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, pointed out that the meeting called for "enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation", and specifically pointed out that it is necessary to "strengthen policy coordination to ensure that the same direction is used to form a joint force". This means that policy coherence will be further strengthened in the future, possibly taking into account, in particular, the impact of non-economic policies on macroeconomic policies.
Doing a good job in economic work is a systematic project, and it is necessary to grasp the rhythm, intensity and focus in the process of promotion, and implement more accurate and effective policies in order to stimulate the endogenous power of the main body of business. Wei Qijia said that in the face of the requirements of high-quality economic development and changes in the international and domestic environment, we can only better grasp the sequence and dialectical relationship between "progress" and "stability", "establishment" and "breaking", effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, and consolidate and enhance the upward trend, so as to continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.
*: People's Daily Online).