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Zircon sandIt is a raw material for the zirconium industry.
In June 2021, South Africa's Richards Bay Mining announced the cessation of all mining and smelting operations due to security concerns, resulting in a sudden supply crunch for global zircon sand. Affected by this, the global zircon sand has soared, and related companies in the domestic zirconium industry have also made a lot of money and can even be usedEarn money every dayto describe.
Zircon sand ** trend.
A brief boom was followed by a long depression.
In the past two years, the ** of zircon sand has entered a sustained oneDownward channelThe life of companies in the industry is becoming more and more difficult, and the industry leader Oriental Zirconium (002169) has also turned from profit to loss.
Can such a big ** be reproduced?Today, let's also talk about zirconium.
1. Rare, but not too rare
Zirconium belongsRare metals, but that's a bit of a misnomer.
The abundance value of zirconium in the earth is even greater than that of common metals such as copper, nickel, lead and zinc, and the reason why it is called a rare metal is because there are few independent deposits of zirconium and the difficulty of mining is relatively high. The global available zirconium resources are about:68 million tons(in terms of zro2), at present, it is enough for all mankind to use 90 years, so this amount is actually not "rare" at all.
The zirconium element hasHigh melting point(1852), high boiling point (4370), non-toxic, environmental protection, corrosion resistance and a series of excellent properties, so it is widely used in ceramics, glass, atomic energy, chemical industry, foundry and medical and other industrial fields. Zirconium asAerospacewithNuclear industryThe material is significantly superior to titanium in all respects. As a member of the emerging industry, zirconium products are known as "the most promising products in the 21st century" and "the No. 1 metal in the atomic energy era".
Downstream Applications of Zirconium Data**: Global Zirconium Ore Resources Status and Utilization Trend", CNKI.
At present, the main application of zirconium is to obtain the upstream zircon sand after various technological processesZirconium dioxideZirconium chlorideand other products, and then applied to various industries. From the point of view of the proportion of demand,Ceramics occupy more than halfOther applications include foundry sand, zirconium chemicals, refractories, etc.
Downstream applications of global zirconium Source**: Haitong International**.
There are also a very small number of "lucky" zirconium used in the high-end field, some are used in nuclear power plants and aerospace, and zirconium is in3D printingSemiconductorsPerovskite cellsSolid-state batteriesand other fields also have applications. Let's press these first.
2. Rare metals that are scarce in China
China has a lot of land and resources, and there is generally no shortage of "rare" things, and some are even abundant. For example, rare earths, tungsten, gallium, germanium, etc., some metals may account for more than half of the world's output, and can even be used as a trump card against the "neck" of some countries.
It is also a rare metal, and the status of zirconium is very embarrassing. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the global zirconium resource reserves in 2023 will be about 68 million tons, of which Australia and South Africa account for 80%, and China's zirconium resources are almost negligible. Although China is the largest in the worldZirconium resource consuming countries, but the supply of domestic resources is seriously insufficientHeavy dependence on imports, part of the productExternal dependenceGundam
Distribution of global zirconium resources in 2023 (thousand tons) Data**: USGS
3. Subject to others everywhere
However, although China lacks zirconium ore resources, it is not insignificant in the zirconium industry chain. In the global division of labor, China is the mainstayLocated in the middle of the industrial chain。China imports a large amount of raw ore and uses it to produce zirconium primary products, and is the world's largest exporter of zirconia products, with more than 95% of zirconia produced in China.
Zirconium industry chain data**: China Industrial Information Network.
In this pattern, China's zirconium industry only assumes the role of simple processingLack of bargaining power。First of all, the raw material can jam your neck. The world's top three zircon sand companies combinedOccupy more than 50%.ofMarket share, how much to sell you, what ** is naturally up to the people. Of course, this supply and demand pattern is not very stable, and if you encounter an emergency with limited supply, you can naturally soar to the sky (such as the big ** in 2021), but this kind of thing is unavoidable after all.
World zircon sand supply pattern in 2020 Data**: Soochow**.
The downstream of the zirconium industry is mostly for:Traditional industries, including ceramics, refractories, chemical industry, etc., most of the barriers are not high, the products are homogeneous, the competition is fierce, and the bargaining power of the zirconium industry on the downstream is acceptable.
However, most of these industries areThe pace of growth is slow, and even continue to decline. ReceivedReal estateUnder the influence of factors such as the downward cycle and double carbon and dual control, the ceramic industry has experienced a continuous decline, and companies in the industry are struggling to survive. The downstream of refractories is mainlySteelcementand other traditional cyclical industries, the overall dilemma of weakening demand, rising costs, and declining profits has emerged, and they are still facing huge transformation pressure and capacity constraints in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
One must build on a firm foundation.
If the downstream demand is depressed, the zirconium industry will not have a good time. The industry leader Oriental Zirconium Industry is often in the "Make a few years of small earningsA big loss for a year"The cash flow from operating activities is good, but it is accompanied by a continuous and large capital investment.
Fourth, high-end is also difficult to get to the sky
China's zirconium industry urgently needs to find new application space and improve the added value of products. Nuclear power plantsis an important application. Zirconium alloys are mainly used as sheath materials for reactors, which are of great significance to the safety of nuclear power plants. At present, China's nuclear power installed capacity is about 57 million kilowatts, corresponding to about 1,500 tons of zirconiumNuclear-grade zirconium is imported。Although there is a certain amount of domestic importation, it is still far from complete import substitution.
At the same time, zirconium is inSolid-state batteriesPerovskite cellsand other emerging fields also have certain applications. These new apps have fueled the hype in previous years. However, the author believes that, first of all, most of these applications are still in a state of not being able to write a wordWhen it will land is still unknown；Take a step back, even if it falls to the ground,Incremental demand for zirconiumIt may not be much, the barrier is in the downstream process, and the middle and upper reaches can't share much cake.
In contrast, the self-reliance and self-improvement of the zirconium industry is the most important.
United StateswithJapanAlthough there is also a lack of zirconium resources, the two countriesRich technology accumulation, the added value of the product is high, but it enjoys a high levelBargaining power。The United States is the earliest and most complete country in the development of the global zirconium industry, and its research on zirconium has greatly promoted the development of the global zirconium industry, and has the production capacity of nuclear-grade zirconium metal in the nuclear energy industry, industrial-grade zirconium metal in high-end industries such as the aerospace industry and the weapons industry. The situation is similar in Japan, where the zirconium industry is mainly used in advanced refractories, catalysts and modern ceramics, and its high-end zirconium products are exported overseas, and nuclear power plants are also important customers of Japan's zirconium resources.
There is still a long way to go to learn from the developed countries to learn from Xi.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.