There are three possibilities for the property market to change in the next 5 years, are you ready?
Introductory. Recently, Xu Gao, chief economist of Bank of China International and adjunct professor of the National School of Development of Peking University, has sparked heated discussions among netizens. Xu Gao believes that the real estate market will be oversupplied in the short term, but the relationship between supply and demand will be reversed in the short term, and the pressure on housing prices will be great. This view has sparked a discussion about the future direction of the property market. However, there are also some netizens who oppose Professor Xu's views. They believe that Xu Gao's argument is too one-sided, and only extrapolates from the construction area and operating rate to infer the lack of supply and demand for future housing prices. This article will combine relevant data and views to ** the possibility of property market changes in the next 5 years.
The overall downward trend in the real estate market cannot be reversed.
At present, the real estate market has entered a general downward trend, and this trend may not be reversed. One reason is that there is already a surplus of commercial housing in China. According to data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are currently about 600 million housing units in China, most of which are residential. Even if there are only 400 million homes, there will be enough for 2 billion people. As a result, we can see that there are a large number of vacant houses in many cities in China, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, with a vacancy rate of more than 30%. In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of October, the area of commercial housing for sale in the country was 648.35 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 181%。These properties for sale need tens of millions of people to digest. In conclusion, looking at the total number of existing homes and the vacancy rate and the rate of pending sale, the oversupply of the real estate market in the next few years may be irreversible.
However, the downward trend in the real estate market has also been influenced by factors such as an aging population, young people not getting married, and a declining birthrate. These social changes have led to a decrease in demand, further exacerbating the downward trend in the real estate market. Compared to the past, the real estate market has lost its upward momentum. Even if the policy is greatly relaxed, it will be difficult to activate the real estate market. Therefore, the trend of the general downward adjustment of the building market in the next 5 years may not be reversed.
Real estate developers are going through a big change.
In the past, the lucrative real estate market attracted a large number of property developers. However, with the downturn in the real estate market, even large real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden are facing difficulties, and developers without strength will naturally be eliminated by the market. Economist Ren Zeping pointed out in the "Top 10 Chinese Economic Achievements in 2023**" that 90% of real estate companies may disappear in the future. This is not alarmist, but due to the fierce competition in the real estate market in the future, only strong property developers will be able to survive the fierce competition. As a result, the next five years will see a major change for property developers.
This major reform will bring about some positive changes. On the one hand, quality property developers will be able to continue to improve the quality of their products and services to meet the needs of consumers. On the other hand, competition in the real estate market will also intensify, and consumers will have more choices and be more competitive**. So, while this reshuffle will lead to the departure of some real estate companies, it could be a positive change for the real estate market as a whole.
commercial real estate market"Polarization.
Recently, according to **, China will carry out affordable housing pilots in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million, providing 6 million units of affordable housing. This means that in the future, many families who originally planned to buy a house may choose to abandon the home purchase plan and apply for affordable housing instead. At that time, the real estate market may appear"Polarization. "The state of large commercial housing** remains high, while small commercial housing may depreciate.
This possibility is due to the state's emphasis on and promotion of affordable housing policies. Providing subsidized housing will provide more options for low-income vulnerable people and ease their housing pressure. However, this will also have a certain impact on some commercial housing markets, especially the small commercial housing market. Therefore, in the next five years, the commercial housing market is likely to emerge"Polarization. "Consumers should consider their needs and financial capabilities more comprehensively when buying a house.
Summary. In conclusion, there are three possible changes in the real estate market in the next five years. First of all, due to the oversupply of the market and the impact of social changes, the overall downward trend of the real estate market may be irreversible. Secondly, real estate developers will usher in a major reshuffle, and only the strongest companies will be able to survive the fierce competition. Finally, the commercial real estate market may emerge"Polarization. ", large units are high and stable, and small units may depreciate.
In the face of these possible changes, ordinary consumers must be more rational and comprehensive when considering when and how to buy a house. Buying a home is not only a matter of meeting the needs of housing, but also taking into account the financial ability and future development of the individual. In addition, it is also necessary to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market to prevent market volatility and vicious competition. Only by reasonably guiding the development of the real estate market can it operate in a more harmonious and orderly manner.
The future direction of the real estate market is a complex issue that requires a comprehensive analysis of the impact of various factors. Based on relevant data and opinions, this article conducts **and** of the changes in the property market in the next five years. However, the views expressed in this article are for reference only, and the final conclusion should be determined in the light of the current situation and political adjustments. Hopefully, the discussion in this article will help readers understand and think about the real estate market in the future.