As I said, just looking at the monthly premium data of insurance cannot judge the degree of benefit for insurance companies. After all, during the life insurance reform, the new business value rate of various life insurance companies fell a lot, and the changes in the stock price of insurance companies were also affected by multiple factors such as investment returns and industry policies (Ping An also had the comprehensive impact of many of its subsidiaries).
However, Ping An's third quarterly report shows that the new business value rate has bottomed out, and the amount of premium income can reflect the elasticity of new business value to a certain extent.
In recent months, the trend of the two sectors of banking and insurance has not been satisfactory, and the number of questions about the insurance industry has also increased significantly. Today, on the occasion of Ping An's announcement of the premium data for November, out of the perspective of reverse thinking, the current leader deliberately issued another article on the performance of Ping An's debt side!
1. Ping An's premium performance in November exceeded expectations, and the impact of the anchor change of the scheduled interest rate has been eliminated.
Ping An of China Premium Data Summary).
Ping An's 2023 premium data has two major characteristics:
First, Ping An's premium from January to July this year showed positive year-on-year growth, especially in the three months, and Ping An's monthly premium income hit a record high. This is mainly the insurance predetermined interest rate by 35% to 3During the 0% window period, the policyholder "pressed the whistle and grabbed the order".
Second, in the third month, Ping An's premium data was not as good as the same period last year, because the policyholders placed orders in advance, and the demand crowding out effect appeared. However, because the rate of return on bank deposits and wealth management of competing products of life insurance has declined faster, and insurance customers can still enjoy multiple services of insurance companies, the competitiveness of life insurance has not weakened. Therefore, the sect leader has long expected that the demand overdraft caused by the scheduled interest rate adjustment will be short-term, and the impact time will not be longer than that of the "New Definition of Critical Illness".
In November, Ping An's original premium income was 51 billion, the best data since 2020. It is expected that the impact of the anchor change of the scheduled interest rate has been eliminated.
It is currently a good start to the sales window, but in recent years, due to regulatory constraints, insurance companies are not allowed to hype up the "good start", and in terms of new business premiums, the fourth quarter is usually the low time of the year.
Ping An Life and Health Insurance Individual New Business Premium Income).
In the first three quarters of this year, individual new business premiums maintained double-digit positive growth. In November, Ping An's premium growth returned to positive, and it is expected that the value of Ping An's new business will continue to grow positively in Q4.
2. Ping An Life leads a number of data, and its ecological strength may make Ping An's new business value rate the most flexible.
In the first half of this year, because of the anchoring of the pricing interest rate, life insurance companies with good value rates sold well. At that time, Ping An's new business value ratio increased from 20 in the first quarter9% to 228%, but in order to exclude the impact of special time points, it is not yet possible to judge that Ping An's new business value ratio has completely bottomed out.
The scheduled interest rate adjustment has been settled at the end of July this year (corresponding to the year-on-year decline in Ping An's premium income since August), and customers who want to lock in long-term income are no longer in a hurry to place orders, and the new business value rate should return to the usual level. However, in the third quarter, Ping An's new business value ratio was reported at 228% on the basis of a slight rise again to 232%, so I said in a long article in the third quarter that Ping An's new business value ratio indicator has bottomed out.
Although not all life insurance companies disclose new business value ratio data in their quarterly financial reports like Ping An, CPIC disclosed a new business value ratio of 134%, also an increase of 2 over the same period last year7% percentage points.
From the perspective of the change trend of handling fees and commissions of life insurance companies, Ping An and CPIC took the lead in reducing commission expenses in 2018 (starting life insurance reform first), and life insurance reform was probably completed before Chinese Life and Xinhua Insurance (China Life and Xinhua Zhongbao did not disclose the new business value rate).
To a certain extent, the continuation rate of life insurance can also reflect the progress of life insurance reform of various companies.
13-month life insurance continuation rate of listed insurers).
25-month life insurance continuation rate of listed insurers).
Ping An's 13-month and 25-month life insurance continuation rates look smoother, and the upward inflection point appeared earlier, reflecting the company's product strength and multi-channel sales advantages. In terms of the 25-month continuation rate, Ping An reported 876% ranked first among listed life insurance companies.
In terms of new business value, the value of new business of Ping An's interim life insurance increased by about 45% year-on-year, which was higher than the 30%+ growth rate of CPIC and less than 20% growth of China Life and Xinhua.
From the perspective of the trend of commission changes, the continuation rate of life insurance, and the elasticity of changes in the value of new business, Ping An Life's reform progress is ahead of its peers
Ping An's new business value rate has stabilized at the current position of 20%+, which is better than that of comparable companies, and I personally believe that this is mainly due to the effective progress of Ping An's product + channel reform and the brand effect of Ping An. Looking ahead, Ping An's new business value ratio should perform better than it does today.
Ping An's first ultra-high-end senior living community, Shenzhen Zhenyinian, will be completed in 2024. Ping An has health testing centers in 17 cities across the country, becoming the glue of Ping An Insurance + Medical Care + Pension. Ping An has its own doctors, external doctors, and its own health management center, and has the most balanced online and offline service channels, so compared with other insurance companies, Ping An can provide a higher degree of closed-loop worry-free, time-saving and cost-saving services. With the successive launch of Ping An Insurance + ecological services, there is more room for flexibility in the value rate of new business.
Third, the positive impact of the improvement of the liability side on life insurance companies has emerged.
The stock price performance of several major insurance companies in the recent stage has not been good. On the 13th, Ping An A shares fell below 39 yuan, only slightly higher than the mid-fourth quarter low of last yearIn fact, the performance of the capital market this year is poor, and the pressure on the investment side is superimposed on the insurance capital to increase the position of risk assets.
2023 Mid-term Ping An Portfolio).
2023 New China Insurance Portfolio).
During the interim reporting period, the ** assets of Ping An and Xinhua Insurance increased by more than 20%, exceeding the overall growth rate of the investable assets of the two insurance companiesAlthough the total assets of Chinese Life ** have not changed much, ** and other equity investments have also increased significantly, or indirectly increased the center of gravity of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to below 3,000 points recently, and the volatility of heavier listed insurance companies naturally amplified simultaneously.
The trend of the CSI Insurance Thematic Index (930618) can clearly see the benefits of the improvement in liabilities to the insurance sector.
CSI Insurance Thematic Index).
Today, the Shanghai Composite closed at 2,968 points, and the ChiNext closed at 1,872 points, respectively 28% is 16% lower, while the CSI Insurance Theme Index closed at 1521 today71 points, 15 points higher than the low point in the fourth quarter of last year75%, the performance is stronger than the Shanghai Stock Exchange and ChiNext style indexes, indicating that the improvement in the performance of the liability side of life insurance companies has had a positive impact on the stock prices of insurance companies. As long as the center of gravity of the index moves upward, the two ends of insurance assets and liabilities can form a double-click, and the winning rate of Ping An, which is the first to turn around on the liability side, may be greater than that of its peers.
Chart).
Recently, the market has attracted more attention to stand at $2,000 an ounce and hit a record high, not to mention that the gold price in the last century has been wide for 20 years, just look at the high point in 2012 to 2018 before the launch, ** has also been dormant for 6 years. It's just that investors usually only see the boom and forget the trough before the peak!
Ping An's dividend yield and dividend payout ratio).
At present, Ping An's dividend yield has exceeded 5%, and its layout of medical care and pension is the direction of strong policy support and broad prospects. Standing at the current node, I personally believe that the medium and long-term rate of return on investment in Ping An should be stronger than **. Such a judgment is not only based on last year only 388% of the depth of insurance, compared with cold ** or deposits, wealth management and other investments, insurance + services can better meet the needs of people for a better life. Especially in the context of Ping An's debt side improving sharply and the global easing cycle may be earlier than previously expected (the Fed may cut interest rates earlier than previously judged), the certainty of Ping An's investment at this stage has been one of the strongest ranges in history!