Leju Finance Li LiOn December 4, Kaiyuan** released a weekly report on the real estate industry.
Core view: New housing transactions increased month-on-month, and eight departments issued documents to increase financial support for private enterprises.
The transaction area of new houses in 64 cities tracked by open source ** increased year-on-year and month-on-month, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities increased year-on-year, the land transaction area in the 48th week decreased year-on-year, and the transaction premium rate increased month-on-month. On the policy side, a number of banks held symposiums to emphasize better support for the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, and eight departments launched 25 measures to emphasize increasing financial support for private enterprises. At the local level, Nanjing raised the loan limit of the housing provident fund for second homes, and Sichuan Province proposed to make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city's policies, and accelerate the adjustment and improvement of administrative control measures when the market is overheated. Open source ** believes that the current supply and demand relationship in the real estate market has fully demonstrated its determination to repair in the policy aspect, and more counter-cyclical adjustment measures are expected to accelerate the landing. Mega cities are actively and steadily promoting the transformation of urban villages, the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds is also expected to boost the growth rate of real estate investment, industry valuations will be repaired one after another, the new housing market is expected to stabilize, second-hand housing transactions continue to pick up, the sector still has good investment opportunities, and the industry is "optimistic" rating.
Policy side: A number of banks have carried out financing seminars for real estate enterprises, and Nanjing has adjusted its housing provident fund policy
*Level: Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank held a symposium for representatives of some real estate enterprises, emphasizing that they should better support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, help real estate enterprises go through the cycle, and do a good job in "ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and ensuring stability", so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate marketEight departments, including the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Regulation, issued 25 measures to strengthen financial support for the private economy to help the development and growth of the private economy.
At the local level, Nanjing has increased the maximum loan amount for the second use of provident fund loans to purchase a second house, from the current 300,000 yuan and 600,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuanSichuan Province has guided the downward trend of personal housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios, and implemented policies such as "recognising housing but not recognising loans" for personal housing loans.
On the market side, the transaction of new houses increased month-on-month, and the transaction of second-hand houses increased year-on-year
Sales side: According to the data of the Housing Authority, in the 48th week of 2023, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in 64 cities across the country was 3.13 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 11%;From the cumulative value, the transaction area of 64 cities has reached 161.68 million square meters since the beginning of the year, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 15%. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities across the country was 1.66 million square meters, a year-on-year growth rate of 39%, and the previous value was 34%;The cumulative transaction area since the beginning of the year is 78.72 million square meters, a year-on-year growth rate of 29%, and the previous value is 29%.
Investment side: In the 48th week of 2023, the 100 largest and medium-sized cities in the country launched a land planning construction area of 98.23 million square meters, and the transaction land planning construction area was 11.27 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 73%, and the transaction premium rate was 24%。The planned construction area of the first-tier cities was 790,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20%.The planned construction area of the second-tier cities was 3.38 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 75%.The planned construction area of the land transacted in third-tier cities was 7.1 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 74%. The first unrestricted land auction in Suzhou ended successfully, with 6 residential land transactions at 1 premium and 5 reserve prices, raising about 749.4 billion. Among them, BBMG had 120 rounds of bidding, with a total price of 289.7 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 3009% won the Olympic sports plot in the park.
Financing: The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased month-on-month
In the 48th week of 2023, the issuance of credit bonds was 3.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 53% year-on-year and 77% month-on-month, with an average weighted rate of 399%, an increase of 43bps month-on-month;There were no new overseas bond issuances.
Risk Warning: (1) The recovery of market confidence is less than expected, the impact of policies is less than expected, and the capital risk of real estate enterprises is further increased(2) Regulatory policies have changed beyond expectations, and industry volatility has intensified.
Related Company: Open Source**.