Leju Finance Li LiOn December 4, Ping An** released a weekly report on the real estate industry.
Weekly view: This week, the central bank and other eight departments issued a document to reiterate that the financial needs of private real estate enterprises should be reasonably metThe Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium on real estate enterprises in Shanghai, proposing to support the reasonable financing and M&A needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discriminationCRIC announced the sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies in November fell by 30% year-on-year, an increase of 1 compared with October7 percentage points, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November fell by 15% year-on-year. On the whole, despite the continued easing of the policy side, subject to income and housing price expectations, the recovery momentum of the property market is still insufficient. In terms of investment suggestions, short-term fundamental changes are still the key to affecting the real estate sector, in the medium and long term, with the advantages of financing and land acquisition, and with the help of the industry adjustment period to continuously optimize the asset quality, real estate enterprises are expected to gradually win, it is recommended to pay attention to Yuexiu Real Estate, Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, C&D International Group, Huafa Co., Ltd., China Overseas Land, Binjiang Group, Vanke A, etc. At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to property management and industrial chain opportunities, such as Poly Property, China Merchants Accumulation, Greentown Management Holdings, Oriental Yuhong, Keshun Shares, Weixing New Materials, Jianlang Hardware, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: CRIC announced the sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November 2023.
Market operation monitoring: 1) New home transactions continue to rebound and are expected to continue to improve. This week (1125-12.1) New house transaction 280,000 sets, up 185%, second-hand housing transactions 180,000 sets, down 31%。The average daily transaction of new homes in November fell by 18 percent year-on-year9%, a decrease of 6 compared with October7pct。With the implementation of the easing policy in the property market and the increase in the number of launches in the fourth quarter, short-term transactions are expected to gradually improve. 2) The inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the depletion period was 18 months. The forensic inventory in 16 cities was 103.51 million square meters, up 1% from the previous month. The decontamination period is 18 months. 3) The land transaction and premium rate have fallen, and the proportion of the second line has increased. Last week, the land of 100 cities was built with a construction area of 974440,000 square meters, 1075 square meters20,000 square meters, down from the previous month3%；The transaction premium rate is 24%, up 01pct。Thereinto.
The first, second and third lines accounted for the proportion of the construction area respectively4%, down 1. month-on-month7pct, l 125pct, down 107pct。
Capital market monitoring: 1) Real estate bonds: This week, domestic real estate bonds were issued 5.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3 billion yuan from the previous month, and there was no overseas bond issuance;The issuance interest rate of key real estate enterprises is 33-4.14%, the comparable issuance rate is lower than the previous one. 2) Real estate stocks: The real estate sector fell 49%, underperforming the CSI 300 (-1.).6%）；The current real estate sector PE (TTM) is 138 times, higher than the 10 of the CSI 30095 times, and the valuation is at 87 in the last five years42% quantile. This week, the top three net inflows of northbound funds in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect were Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, China Merchants Shekou and Tianjian Group, and the top three net inflows of southbound funds were Country Garden Services, Sunac China and Country Garden.
Risk Warning: 1) The property market recovery is less than expected risk;2) The risk of the fermentation of liquidity problems and the chain reaction exceeding expectations of individual real estate enterprises;3) The risk of short-term fluctuations in the industry exceeding expectations.
Related company: Ping An**.