[Introduction].In the middle of December, the last round of cold wave weather has just ended, a new round of cold wave weather staged again, affected by the phased weather factors, domestic pigs and ginger ** rose back, among them, pig prices cyclical "inflection point" hit, pig prices have a trend of dead wood in spring, and in the ginger market, by the rain and snow cooling weather, the stage of **tight, ** against the trend higher. In the domestic refined oil market, a new round of oil price reduction is imminent, gasoline plummeted by 395 yuan tons, and oil prices in the fourth quarter are likely to "fall for 6 consecutive years"!
So, what's happening in the market? Today is December 13th, and the analysis of hogs, ginger and gasoline ** is as follows:
First of all, in the ginger marketAfter the autumn, with the new ginger on the market, by the increase in planting area, the yield has increased significantly, ginger spot *** downward, in some markets in Changyi, since November 20, the local wholesale market, washed ginger ** from 3$8 down to $33 yuan catty, the phased ** reduction range is 13About 2%!
However, a few days ago, with Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places, a wide range of rain and snow cooling weather, the production area supply and marketing is not smooth, the difficulty of logistics and transportation has increased sharply, ginger ** decreased, ** showed a contrarian trend, which also broke the ginger market landslide ** performance, at present, Changyi part of the wholesale market, ginger ** rose to 345 yuan catty, **0About 15 yuan.
According to the analysis of the institution, due to the arrival of a new round of cold wave weather, the rain and snow falling area and the previous round of height returned, the difficulty of ginger transfer in the main producing areas has increased sharply, the difficulty of purchasing merchants in the local wholesale market has increased, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell ginger has weakened, and the spot ginger market will continue to be strong! In particular, after this rain and snow, the minimum temperature in the main ginger producing areas in Shandong may drop to about -10, and the maximum temperature may fall below 0, and the risk of ginger freezing will increase sharply.
However, in the short term, supported by the rain and snow cooling weather, the ginger market may have a "tail" performance, but, rationally, the production of ginger in 23 years has increased significantly, the level is relatively loose, superimposed, the performance of the consumer market is sluggish, the domestic catering industry continues to be under pressure, in the medium and long term, the ginger market is still facing greater pressure!
Secondly, in the hog market,Previously, the average price of domestic live pigs bottomed out by 678 yuan catty, affected by the cold wave weather, superimposed, the breeding end of the hope to rise sentiment stronger, pig prices against the trend higher, but, in the last two days, the northern market is under pressure, after the rain and snow briefly stopped, the breeding end of the high slaughter phenomenon has increased, the difficulty of slaughterhouse procurement weakened, due to the lack of regional pig price difference, the northern pig source is not smooth, the market bearish sentiment has increased, which also inhibits the performance of pig prices!
According to market feedback, on December 13, the pig price was **003 yuan catty, pig slaughter** rose to 708 yuan catty, pig prices weakened, in the north, pig prices are mainly sideways adjustments, in the northwest and some parts of the northeast, the phenomenon of slaughtering enterprises to reduce prices has increased, but in the southwest, east and south China and other places, pig prices continue to perform in most of the world!
It is understood that the new range of rain and snow weather is coming, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and other places will once again usher in the rain and snow cooling weather, the northern region, the pig farm price recognition weakened, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs increased significantly, East China and Central China, the social pig slaughter decreased, the lack of pigs in slaughtering enterprises increased, the bullish sentiment on the breeding side became stronger, especially, after the rain and snow weather, the southwest region, the temperature will also drop sharply, the meat cured sentiment or will increase sharply, pig prices** The support will also be further cashed in!
Therefore, based on the current situation of pig purchase and sales and the impact of rain and snow cooling weather, the domestic pig market is bearish, the good support is strong, pork consumption is expected to improve significantly, which also alleviates the panic mentality of the breeding end, the enthusiasm of the market to be raised or will be improved, pig prices will also enter the cyclical inflection point, it is expected that in mid to late December, pig prices or will fluctuate dominantly, and the magnitude may further rise!
Finally, in terms of refined oil productsRecently, gasoline and diesel ** showed a "low" situation, although, at the beginning of this month, gasoline and diesel ** fell by 55 yuan and 50 yuan respectively, oil prices "pressure line" down, 92 gasoline fell by only 004 yuan liter or so! However, due to the rise and fall of international oil prices, WTI has been lowered for 6 consecutive working days, a decrease of more than 11%, and oil prices have bottomed out by 69$34 barrel!
Entering the 25th refined oil pricing cycle of the year, the domestic refined oil market, the rate of change is low, and as of the 5th working day, the rate of change is -711%, equivalent to gasoline and diesel *** range of 395 yuan tons, 92 gasoline is expected to drop 03~0.35 yuan liters!
According to the analysis of the agency, the time of this round of oil price adjustment is determined, December 19 (next Tuesday) at 24 o'clock in the evening, gasoline and diesel are expected to drop sharply, if the current round of oil prices exceed 365 yuan tons, then, after the rise and fall of gasoline and diesel during the year, oil prices may erase the increase in the first three quarters!
The "inflection point" of pig prices hit, ginger rose and rebounded, and gasoline plummeted by 395 yuan! What happened? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!