Germany** is facing an unprecedented crisis. After disagreements within the coalition, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is faced with the possibility of an early advance.
The German public's trust in his ability to govern is declining, and the voice of support for early elections is getting louder. Will Scholz be able to save his political career, or will he become the shortest-serving chancellor in German history?
As the largest economy in Europe, Germany has always been known for its solid economic growth and low inflation rate. Recently, however, there has been a marked deterioration in the economic situation in Germany.
According to data from the German Federal Statistical OfficeIn October 2023, the annual inflation rate in Germany reached 52%, the highest level since 1994. Inflation in Germany is well above the ECB's target and above the eurozone average.
The rise in inflation is mainly due to the surge in energy, the tension in the chain, and the impact of the pandemic. Germany's energy crisis is particularly severe, with both electricity and natural gas** hitting record highs, placing a heavy burden on businesses and residents.
Germany's energy crisis is linked to its energy transition policy, which plans to shut down all nuclear power plants in 2022 and phase out coal power generation by 2038 to achieve carbon neutrality.
However, Germany's renewable energy development has not reached the expected level, resulting in a shortfall in Germany's energy ** and having to rely on imported natural gas and electricity.
Germany's economic crisis is also linked to its trend towards deindustrialization, and Germany's manufacturing sector has been the backbone of its economyBut in recent years, Germany's manufacturing industry has been under competitive pressure from China, the United States and other countries, as well as the challenges of technological innovation and transformation.
Germany's traditional strengths, such as the automotive, machinery and chemical industries, have all declined, while Germany's investment and performance in emerging areas such as digitalization, artificial intelligence and biotechnology have not been satisfactory.
These domestic crises have brought great obstacles to Germany's economic growth and social stability, and have also weakened Germany's international competitiveness and influence.
Germany does not seem to have made a good impression on the international stage. In particular, in dealing with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, it seems that a wise strategy has not been adopted, which has led to disruptions in the operation of the pipeline on many fronts, further weakening Germany's geopolitical position.
Nord Stream 2 is a pipeline that transports natural gas directly from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, and is an important economic cooperation project between Germany and Russia, as well as an important means for Germany to solve the energy crisis.
However, the project has also drawn strong opposition from other EU member states, the United States, and Ukraine, among others, arguing that it will increase Germany's and Europe's energy dependence on Russia, threaten Europe's energy security and regional security, and weaken the unity of the European Union and the influence of the United States.
The United States has imposed sanctions on participants in the Nord Stream 2 project, forcing Germany to make concessions and reach an agreement with the United States promising to preserve Ukraine's energy security and sovereignty during Nord Stream 2 operations, while supporting Europe's energy diversification.
However, the agreement did not quell the opposition of other countries, but instead sparked criticism within Germany that Germany had bent to the United States at the expense of its own interests and sovereignty.
In addition, the Nord Stream 2 project has also encountered technical and legal obstacles, with Germany's energy regulator not yet approving the project's operating permit, and the European Court of Justice may challenge the project to comply with EU energy regulations.
These factors have led to uncertain operating times for the Nord Stream 2 project, while Germany's energy needs are becoming increasingly urgent.
Germany's relations with the United States have also not improved significantlyAlthough Scholz has tried to repair and strengthen the transatlantic partnership with Biden since coming to power, there are still some differences and frictions between the two countries.
Public opinion in Germany also reflects dissatisfaction with Scholz**. A poll conducted by Forsa shows that the current crisis has put ** in a difficult positionOnly 24% of respondents believe they can cope effectively, while the majority (66%) are skeptical.
*In terms of budget, it was also questioned by the Germans, with 69% believing that the problem could not be solved, and less than 20% supporting** continuing the effort.
Dissatisfaction with Scholz in Germany is at its peak, with more than a third wanting elections to be held as soon as possible, reflecting a significant drop in support.
The poll also shows that if elections are held now, Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) will have only 22% support, down 6 percentage points from the 2021 election result.
Its rival, the League for Democratic Christianity (CDU CSU), has seen its support rise to 26 percent, up 4 percentage points from the 2021 election results.
This means that Scholz may not be able to form again and may be replaced by Laschet, the leader of the Democratic Union. This also means that Germany may face a political upheaval and uncertainty that will affect Germany's economic and social stability and development.
Scholz also has internal problems because it is a coalition government. This kind of coalition** requires leaders to have excellent leadership skills to reconcile the interests and ideas of different parties.
Merkel has successfully formed coalitions, but Scholz seems to have failed to coordinate the parties as effectively as she did, leading to internal and mutual constraints.
Scholz is composed of the Social Democrats, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, and the three parties are divided and conflicted on some important policy issues, such as energy policy, fiscal policy, tax policy, immigration policy, European policy, etc.
These differences and conflicts make it difficult for Scholz to form a unified and effective policy direction and action plan, and more often than not, it consumes time and energy in compromises and concessions.
This also makes it difficult for Scholz to deal with crises and challenges at home and abroad, and more importantly, he loses trust and support in coping and perfunctory.
Scholz faces multiple challenges and crises from home and abroad, while his handling and leadership have sparked discontent among Germans, reflected in low approval ratings and polls in favor of early elections.
This shows that Scholz needs to take more effective measures to deal with issues at home and abroad in order to rebuild trust and enhance his leadership.