Consumer demand is an important part of aggregate demand, and an effective way to stabilize the overall economic situation is to stimulate household consumption, and at the same time, it can hedge against the downward pressure on the country's economy by promoting consumption.Under the new normal of China's economic development, the obstacle to China's overall economic transformation is overcapacity, and the state has implemented supply-side structural reforms that use consumption as the engine of economic developmentIt is mainly due to the upgrading and adjustment of China's industrial structure, through supply-side innovation to open up new consumption hotspots, and to create new impetus for economic growth through consumption-driven.
China's positive development can not only expand the consumer market and raise the level of consumption, but also speed up economic development and the transformation of the model. From the four aspects of insurance, consumer credit, savings and investment, this paper discusses the influence mechanism of China's residents' consumption.
Visualize the development of the corresponding indicators in the four dimensions, the development of the financial industry and related policy content, and draw a geographical distribution map of urban residents' consumption changesThis paper analyzes the current situation of consumer finance and financial industry and urban residents' consumption behavior in China.
Then, 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2020 were used to construct a panel regression model** on the financial impact of household consumptionDue to the uneven development of urban residents' consumption in different regions of China, this paper divides it into three regions: eastern, central and western.
Then, the panel quantile regression model was used to analyze the heterogeneity of consumer finance strength on different consumption behaviors from the two aspects of consumption level and consumption structureFinally, the potential of consumer credit to influence residents' consumption behavior is explored.
Since the reform and opening up,China's economic development is relatively dependent on investment and external demand, and domestic demand is insufficient to a certain extent.
Especially under the influence of the global economic crisis, foreign markets have been impactedChina's external growth is also under considerable pressure, which has put further pressure on China's economic growth.
In addition,Under the influence of the international economic crisis and the decline in external demand, we have always relied on investment to stimulate economic development. However, compared with the initial stage, the economic operation efficiency is not high.
At present, according to the national conditions of our countryHigh-quality development is being promoted in an all-round way, and economic development is facing problems such as expanding domestic demand, from investment to consumption.
Domestic financial institutions are encouraged to carry out reforms of consumer financial credit products, and consumer finance companies are planned to carry out pilot projects nationwide. At the same time, it is necessary to make use of financial policies and financial instruments to better stimulate household consumption.
* Increasing attention to consumer finance, which explains that consumer finance should be the support of China's inclusive finance. During the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plan periods, China vigorously promoted economic and industrial transformation.
Modern information technology is developing rapidlySome traditional consumer loans rely on the Internet and have been transformed into online consumer finance, which has gained new development opportunities.
With the help of big data intelligent integration and computing, the online application mode is more convenient and fastMicrocredit loans are readily available to meet the needs of various aspects, in line with the development of the times, and better respond to the consumption needs of residents.
Consumption is a basic economic activity, and stimulating consumption is the key to expanding domestic demand and a catalyst for economic stability and progress. At present, we should have a deep understanding of the people's new expectations for a better life, and strive to solve the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development.
The innovation of economic theory and the sustainable development of consumption are the internal requirements for solving the contradiction of social development. The contradictions existing in social development require the continuous development of consumption and the continuous innovation of economic theories.
The supply-side structural reform that tends to follow the needs of consumption is still the inevitable direction and way of China's stable economic development. The level, quality and satisfaction required for consumption for a good life, and a measure of people's satisfaction.
Consumer behavior
The concept of consumer behavior (consumerbeh**ior) is defined in many booksAnd there are a few differences.
In the book "Encyclopedia of China (Economic Volume)",The relevant definition of consumer behavior is given, which is considered to be the behavior of consumers in the whole process of purchasing the required physical goods, non-physical goods, or services.
And the subsequent use experience prompts residents to change their choices in the next step. Again, mentioned in the book "Encyclopedia of Entrepreneurs in the New Century".
Consumer behavior is the inner portrayal and display of consumers' thoughts and thoughts when they are affected by external factors. In detail, input is the incoming of external information to the brain in the consumer's daily life.
For example, the publicity of shopping malls, the recommendation of friends, and the popularization of science will initially affect consumer behavior;Transformation means that after receiving information from the outside world, different people have different tendencies based on their own experiences and judgments.
The output is mainly manifested in the specific behavior of the consumer after the input and conversion are carried out, and the implementation results can be observedFor example, the type of product, whether to choose, etc.
A study of the measurement of consumption structure
The research on consumption structure has a long history of development, as early as the seventeenth century, there was a content about consumption structureHowever, there has been no extensive research, and the concept is at a stage where only initial ideas are available.
The term was officially coined at the end of the nineteenth century. Among them, among the consumption structure of judging residents' living standards, the most influential is Engel's coefficient, which was proposed by the German scientist Engel in 1875 and has been widely recognized.
This coefficient indicates the proportion of residents' dietary consumption in the total consumption expenditure, and the larger the Engel coefficientThe results show that the higher the food consumption, the lower the purchase of high-end commodities, and the lower the Engel coefficient.
After satisfying the basic needs of satiety, residents can also afford to buy high-end goods and have a higher level of consumption. When domestic scholars measure the consumption structure, the proportion of consumption expenditure on goods in total consumption by category is the main research direction.
In general, it can be broadly divided into single odds measures and categorical odd measures. Domestic scholars have used a single odds measure to conduct research by analyzing the contribution rate of various consumer goods of rural residents.
It is concluded that a higher consumption expenditure on transportation and communication can promote the improvement of the consumption structure of rural residentsThis indicator is used to represent the consumption structure.
The proportion of non-food expenditure and the proportion of non-subsistence expenditure are used as indicators to measure the consumption structure, and a relatively stable conclusion is obtained. The smaller the food consumption expenditure in the total consumption expenditure, the better the consumption structure, and the consumption structure is measured by this.
Research on consumer credit
Foreign scholars have a wider range of research in the field of consumer credit, and handling consumer credit can improve the total assets of households, which indirectly affects the change of residents' expenditure concept through the wealth effect, can effectively stimulate residents' consumption.
More than 50,000 consumers consume financial transaction data for difference analysisIt was found that spending was more concentrated on credit card purchases, with stronger responses to individuals with limited access to credit markets or a high degree of precautionary motivation to save.
It shows that access to housing rights reduces the role of housing as a self-insurance mechanism to smooth consumption. Consumers with different educational backgrounds are willing and justified in choosing consumer credit.
Credit products and consumer finance companies in the field, payment methods, biometrics in consumer payment securityThere are differences in the application of the .
Marginal propensity to consume (MPC),MPC is estimated to account for about 1% of total wealth, with changes in housing wealth having a greater impact on consumption than other assets, and decreasing as net wealth increases.
It is also revealed that the transmission channel is related to the precautionary savings motivation. The study of consumer credit in China is relatively late, and most scholars mainly analyze it through its two characteristics.
One is that consumer credit can alleviate the liquidity constraints of household consumption and have a smoothing mechanism to solve the problem of current consumption restrictions. The VAR model uses personal consumption credit data to empirically demonstrate the impact of consumer credit on household consumption.
Consumer credit is used as the core independent variable to test the smoothing mechanismThrough TSLS regression analysis, it is concluded that consumer credit can promote the improvement of urban residents' consumption level and the optimization of consumption structure.
Analysis of the consumption situation of consumers in the CFPS region in 2014It is believed that there is a "pseudo-wealth effect" in consumer credit, that is, consumers will mistakenly believe that borrowing loans is part of personal property to a certain extent.
This effect can effectively promote household consumption, and at the same time,By analyzing the differences between urban and rural areas and regions, it is found that the more backward the region, the higher the sensitivity to the pseudo-wealth effect of consumer credit, the more it can promote consumption.
Conversely, another property is that consumer credit increases consumers' precautionary savingsIn layman's terms, consumers save more to repay their loans.
Its crowding out effect will counteract the pseudo-wealth effect and even discourage consumption. It is believed that there is a crowding out effect of consumer credit in rural areas, and the impact on promoting consumption is not significant.
In the long run, there is a positive effect, but compared with long-term credit, short-term credit has a certain degree of crowding out effect on the production sector, which will have a reverse inhibition effect.
Research on risk protection
It can promote the current consumption of households. By establishing a model at the level of household poverty, the results show that insurance can not only increase the consumption level of residents, but also increase the consumption expenditure of durable goods.
As a result, it has a significant positive impact on the consumption structure and is of great help to the country's development. It can be consumed smoothly. The old-age insurance in social insurance is of great help to residents in rural areas who are living in difficulty.
On the contrary, the imperfection and lack of an insurance system will inhibit consumption and promote savings. Compared with foreign research literature, domestic research on risk protection has different views.
However, most scholars also believe that insurance has a positive impact on consumer behavior. The old-age insurance system has an income effect and an expectation effect on rural residents, reducing the psychological burden of the insured.
It is believed that basic medical insurance does not significantly affect rural residents' medical consumption, savings and food consumption, but significantly reduced the level of durable goods consumption of rural residents.
The specific impact of its influence on the expansion of residents' consumption scale, the optimization of consumption structure and the improvement of consumption quality is empirically demonstrated. There are also scholars who take a different view.
It is believed that insurance has no relationship with consumption, or the relationship is not clear, and some scholars even believe that there is an inverse relationship. OLS regression analysis analyzes the impact of pension insurance on residents' consumption.
It is believed that different income groups have different impacts on current consumption, and high-income groups have a positive impactOn the contrary, there is a large crowding out effect on low-income people, which cannot promote current consumption.
Research on financial assets and investments
Scholars' research has focused on the role of financial assets on consumption, as well as the impact of income generated by financial investment on consumption。Most scholars believe that the former research has a positive facilitating effect.
Most of the research on the latter is the impact of income on consumption. The level of development and marketization of the financial market has affected the channels and efficiency of capital circulation, as well as the scale of credit and transaction costs.
Residents can promote the improvement and upgrading of consumption level and consumption structure through the dynamic allocation of financial assets. The wealth effect brought about by owning financial assets can help promote consumption upgrading.
The growth of financial assets also leads to an expansion in demand for commoditiesFor example, the investment in bonds helps to obtain property income, which in turn helps to improve the purchasing power of consumers and promote the upgrading of residents' consumption.
The life cycle is based on the traditional consumption mode, and individual consumption is in an objective and rational stateto plan spending wisely to maximize the efficiency of supply and demand.
When it comes to age and income, most consumers try to keep their spending levels as stable as possibleAlthough the income status of the average person is between 35 and 55 years old, it remains at a high level.
Therefore, when you are young, you tend to consume ahead of time, and when you are old, you tend to consume less. In order to meet the needs and purposes of consumption at all stages of life, rational consumers will make use of a variety of financial instruments and financial services to help themselves.
So as to get a better consumer experience. On the premise that consumers generally consume reasonably, the sustainable income hypothesis is proposed.
Persistent income is usually calculated using the weighted average method, and the data** are the various types of income of consumers in recent years; Consumers' consumption structure generally does not change easily, and temporary income is accidental.
Changes are only possible if temporary income occurs frequently and has an impact on continuing income. Generate the possibility of advanced consumption.
Under the premise of rational expectations, the theory of precautionary savings is proposed. In-depth research and analysis of consumers' intertemporal consumption. According to this theory, the accumulation of wealth is fraught with uncertainty.
Increased uncertainty has negatively impacted current consumption. At the heart of the flow-binding hypothesis is:Due to the influence of liquidity constraints, consumers are unable to borrow at will and therefore cannot spend as much as they want.
Under this constraint, consumers can only assess the level of consumption based on their current income, which to a certain extent causes the low consumption power of consumers。Instead of using loans to stimulate consumption, consumers have to save money to meet their future consumption needs.