Do you remember the last time you deposited money in the bank?Maybe you haven't saved money in a long time, or maybe you've even taken out a large sum of money from the bank to use it for other things. You are not alone, you are a member of the Chinese people, and your behavior reflects a common phenomenon: the savings rate of the Chinese is falling "off a cliff".
The savings rate refers to the proportion of residents' savings in disposable income, which reflects residents' willingness and ability to save, and is also an important indicator to measure a country's economic development level and residents' quality of life. Chinese people have always been known for their thrift and active savings, and China's savings rate has always been among the highest in the world.
However, in recent years, with the changes in the economy and society, the Chinese saving Xi habit has also changed dramatically, and the savings rate has plummeted from 56% in 2008 to 44% in 2020, a record low. In November this year, according to the data released by the central bank, household savings fell "cliff-like", and household deposits decreased by 12 trillion yuan, which is the largest decline since statistics were recorded.
The decline in the savings rate of Chinese is a complex phenomenon involving many factors, which cannot be simply attributed to one or two reasons. However, by analyzing the latest data and information on the Internet, as well as my knowledge base and creativity, I believe that the reasons for the decline in the household savings rate can be summarized from the following aspects:
Household income growth slowed down, and consumer demand increased.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents was 32,189 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%, down from 58%。In 2020, the per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese residents was 21,559 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, but the consumption structure has changed significantly, and residents spend more money on education, culture, entertainment, medical care, etc., and the proportion of expenditure in these aspects is respectively. 6% and 78%, both higher than in 2019.
This shows that with the development of the economy and society, the income growth of residents has slowed down, but the consumption demand has not decreased, but has become more diversified and personalized, and residents are more willing to improve their quality of life and happiness rather than saving money.
With the development of the financial market, there are more investment channels.
According to data released by the central bank, in 2020, the total financial assets of Chinese residents were 2711 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147%, of which 99 are monetary and financial assets held by residents5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99%, accounting for 367%, down from 386%；Non-monetary financial assets held by residents were 1716 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181%, accounting for 633%, up from 61 in 20194%。
This shows that with the development of the financial market, residents' investment channels have increased, and residents are more willing to invest their money in non-monetary financial assets such as **, insurance, and bonds, in order to obtain higher returns, rather than depositing money in the bank and facing the risk of low interest rates and inflation.
The real estate market is regulated, and the demand for housing is decreasing.
According to data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in 2020, China's real estate market remained generally stable, with 17600 million square meters, down 19%；The sales volume of commercial housing in the country was 174 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%。In 2020, the area of commercial housing for sale in the country will be 5400 million square meters, down 81%。
This shows that with the regulation of the real estate market, residents' demand for housing has decreased, and residents no longer regard buying a house as the primary way to manage their finances, but more rationally choose other investment methods, or use money to improve their lives, rather than saving money and waiting for the opportunity to buy a house.
Impact on banks.
The decline in the household savings rate means that bank deposits are reduced, the cost of funds of banks increases, the ability of banks to borrow is limited, and the profitability of banks decreases. According to data released by the central bank, in 2020, China's banking financial institutions absorbed 87 percent of household deposits5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83%, down from 88%；In 2020, the loans issued by China's banking financial institutions were 225 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133%, up from 125%。
This shows that the deposit-to-loan ratio of banks has declined, the funding gap of banks has increased, the interest rate spreads of banks have compressed, and the income of banks has decreased. In November this year, household deposits fell "off a cliff", the bank's capital shortage intensified, and the bank's risk prevention ability declined.
Effect on **.
The decline in the savings rate of residents means that residents' consumption increases, residents' investment increases, residents' wealth increases, tax revenues increase, and economic regulation and control capabilities increase. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 101598600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, of which final consumption expenditure contributed 543%, up from 578%；
In 2020, China's annual general public budget revenue was 1847 trillion yuan, down 39%, but the annual general public budget expenditure was 2436 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a fiscal deficit ratio of 36%, up from 28%。This shows that by expanding the fiscal deficit and increasing fiscal expenditure, the consumption and investment of residents will be stimulated, the economic recovery and growth will be promoted, and the fiscal revenue and economic regulation and control ability will be improved.
impact on the residents themselves.
The decline in the savings rate of residents means that the quality of life of residents is improved, the happiness of residents is improved, the consumption and investment views of residents are changed, the risk tolerance of residents is changed, and the future expectations of residents are changed. According to data released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2020, the consumer confidence index of Chinese residents was 1186, up from 117 in 20198, reflecting the optimism of residents about the current and future economic situation;
In 2020, the happiness index of Chinese residents was 734, up from 72 in 20196. It reflects the satisfaction of residents with their living conditions and social environment. This shows that residents have improved their quality of life and happiness by increasing consumption and investment, and have also changed their outlook on consumption and investment, from saving in the past to consumption-oriented, from conservative and steady in the past to aggressive in the present, from short-term planning in the past to long-term planning now.