Hello everyone, I'm Brother Subei!Time flies, there are 18 more days, 2023 will pass, 2024 is coming, and in two days, the Nanjing property market in December will be halfway through!While people are thinking about welcoming the New Year, they are also thinking about searching for the development direction of the property market and economy next year at the end of the year.
Seriously, the current property market has a kind of people"Love and hate".Feeling!
Seeing that the house prices have fallen miserably, the people who have not bought a house to this day do not seem to be as happy as they imagined, because most people still have to get married, and their children still have to go to school, and the rigid demand is still there (Brother Bei has always believed that the kind of people who have a black eye and lie down directly and ignore it are still a minority after all), so next year's property market should be paid attention to, because real estate is not as simple as rising and falling, financial attributes, and it also takes into account the needs of many aspects of people's livelihood.
When it comes to the financial attributes of real estate, it is also an important factor for many people to "love and hate"!To tell the truth, there are really not many people who can see through the property market at a glance now！Although many people are now singing about the decline of the property market, after all, housing prices have soared in China for 20 years, and fixed values have long been "deep-rooted" in the hearts of Chinese peopleIn the unlikely event that the market picks up next year and housing prices rise, how will you respond?
Brother Bei is here to say something that pierces the soul, in fact, the downturn in the property market is not good for everyone!Remember that it is everyone (including the group of people with a salary of 3000 who can never afford to buy a house), but the house price **, the most sour thing in my heart is the middle class who still have a lot of savings in their hands!
It is said that everyone only cares about saving money now, not about spending!In fact, this is not comprehensive, the middle class wants to invest in addition to saving money!In other words, investment is an important part of middle-class life!But now that the value of real estate has shrunk, A-shares have fallen below 3,000 points, and domestic investment channels have been closed, it seems that there is no other way to raise the economy except to make housing prices rise!
An important signal!How will the property market go next year?The important content of the economic work conference is outflowed!
It's a cliché again, at the end of the year, there are a lot of ZC signals about the domestic property market next year!Hearing this, many fans may be unhappy again, Brother Bei, you will sort out the development direction of the property market next year every day, ZC signals, and ears are going to come out of calluses!In fact, there is no need to get bored, because the property market itself is a topic of niche circles, so why is it that in the more than 20 years that the property market has been on the rise, there are always a few people who can make money, and most people look at the house and sigh?Here's why!
The property market itself is a cyclical market, with peaks and troughs, and there are certain rules to follow in the rise and fall of housing pricesIf you are not calm and easily restless, it is only the emotions of the buyer.
Recently zy had another meeting!On December 11-12, the annual ZY Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing to comprehensively summarize the economic work in 2023, deeply analyze the current economic situation, and systematically deploy the economic work in 2024.
For the direction of property market regulation in 2024, the meeting was placed under the category of "continuous and effective prevention and resolution of risks in key areas", and the meeting proposed to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of affordable housing, the construction of "flat and dual-use" public infrastructure, and the transformation of urban villages. Improve relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
And there is a GF report that this meeting is the most ink on real estate work in the history of the ZY economic work conference!And it is worth noting that the tone has been set for 6 consecutive years"Housing is not speculation".GC, the ZY Economic Work Conference"Not mentioned".
From the analysis point of view, the content of the ZY economic work conference mentioned real estate has appeared in previous GF reports, such as the Xinhua News Agency interview with Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in November;In early December, YH Governor Pan Gongsheng made a public speech.
In fact, since the fourth quarter, the two most important events regarding the development direction of the property market in 2024 are the new round of housing reform proposed by GCH on October 26 and the "three not less than" and the white list of 50 real estate companies jointly launched by the three departments on November 17!
The new housing reform solves two problems: first, increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, so that working-class people can have their own homes;2. Let the commercial housing return to the commodity attributes to meet the needs of improved living;It is equivalent to the evolution of the property market in 2024 from the original "mixed commercial housing market" to a "layered market", with a closed market for wage and salary housing and a self-owned circulation market for medium and high-end commercial housing, although specific measures have not yet been fully introduced(That's why this meeting proposes to improve the basic system).But the development direction of the property market next year has been basically determined, buyers need to consider their own needs and budget, and then make a choice, whether to invest in the closed affordable housing market or join the free circulation of the commercial housing marketIn the future, there may be a huge gap in the value of the property in hand!
Three no less than "can be said to be "equal treatment to meet the reasonable financing needs of all types of ownership of real estate enterprises" specific measures, and the 50 white list in the draft basically determines the security firewall of the property market next year.
Some people say that the 50 whitelist hasn't come out yet?In fact, Brother Bei also thinks that this matter must be cautious, after all, there are only 50 houses, and within 50 houses is equivalent to entering the safe;And 50 outside, it is almost equivalent to announcing the end of the health life of real estate companies in advance, maybe these real estate companies may still exist after the list is announced, but no one buys the real estate they develop, and the loans they need are not provided by the bank, in fact, it may be worse than the thunderstorm!
As for why there are only 50?This may be related to the ability of the domestic financial system to carry out the bottom line, the volume is so large, once it is started, the bearing capacity of bad debts may be so large.
The ZY Economic Work Conference on December 11-12 was tantamount to reiterating a series of ZCs since October and making effective summariesIt shows that for next year's property market, the direction of ZC regulation and rescue has not changed.
In addition, the ZY economic work conference also revealed an important signal!That isNext year, the "urbanization rate" will be increased, which implies that the market share of the domestic property market will expand in 2024.
The meeting proposed that "we will promote urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development."The new urbanization rate and the comprehensive revitalization of rural areasOrganically combine to promote the two-way flow of various elements, promote the construction of a new type of urbanization with the county as an important carrier, and form a new pattern of urban-rural integration development".
GF** commented that this will mean that the urbanization rate will be improved next year from the previous "large cities, metropolitan areas" to "coordinated development of large and small cities" and "county-based urbanization" in the direction of transformation, and the organic combination of rural revitalization and new urbanization to expand the potential of domestic demand at the same timeIt also creates a sustainable development path for the county and township real estate market
According to GF data, the domestic urbanization rate at the end of 2022 was 6522%；Shanghai, which has the highest urbanization rate in China, has reached 893%；The urbanization rate of Beijing reached 8757%, which shows that there is still room for improvement in the average urbanization rate in China in the future.
The urbanization rate of some key provinces is still below the average level, such as Hainan, which is only 6149%；Anhui only 602%；Sichuan only 5835%, there is still a lot of room for property market development in 2024.
18 plots of land will be sold, and tomorrow Nanjing's "first real unrestricted land auction" will be unveiled
On November 25 this year, Nanjing responded to the call of the Ministry of Natural Resources and held the first land auction with unlimited price, and the results did not make much waves.
The 9 plots sold on November 25 have a total land area of about 28536 hectares, with a total starting price of 550.7 billion yuan, as a result, after the auction started at 9:30 on the same day, it only took 5 minutes to complete the transaction at the reserve price.
All 9 plots of land are supported by state-owned enterprises, with a starting price of 550.7 billion, land income alone is also 550.7 billion, "I didn't get a little oil and water"!
In order to save face and appease the emotions of some KFS, Nanjing has released its opinion on the same day, saying that the "first unrestricted price auction" is mainly coldThere is a large inventory of new houses in Nanjing, and KFS has a lot of inventory, so it is not active in acquiring land;The direction of the property market next year is still unclear, and KFS has a strong wait-and-see mood
In fact, these views are too one-sided, perfunctory, and can't stand scrutiny at all, if that's the case, how do you explain the popularity of Jinan, Chengdu, and Hefei's "first unlimited" local auctions**.
In fact, Beige's previous article has focused on analysis, "Nanjing's first unrestricted land auction" is cold, there are market reasons, but more important is the quality of the plot itself, the land auction 9 land plots, only 3 in the main city, and none of the 3 main city plots is the top plot in Hexi, Jiangxinzhou property market has been tepid this year, and the south of the island is a 4-disc scuffle, it is difficult to decentralize, and the G70 plot transfer price has exceeded 30,000, how do you let KFS grab it?
Southern New Town has been sold several times at the reserve price of land auctions, and the height limit has not been solved, so it is not worth mentioning at all!The G71 plot in Dingjiazhuang, Maigaoqiao, was unsold last year, and it would be good if someone wanted it this year!
Therefore, the key is not "whether the price limit of the land auction rules is or not", but the quality of the plot itselfYou don't see 1027 soil auction Hexi Green Expo Park G55, after 21 rounds of bidding, 1 minute and 14 seconds of fierce competition and finally reached the top of the lottery was won by Greentown
According to the consistent and stable approach of Nanjing's property market, Beige previously analyzed 1125The first unrestricted land auction is just a warm-up game, first, to launch the backlog of inventory land as soon as possible, after all, the annual land supply plan in 2023 is 820 hectares, and the target is not complete.
Second, for 1214. Soil is paved for foreshadowingAfter the implementation of the rules of unlimited price auctions, the Nanjing land auction market "opened low and went high". After all, the "late-mover advantage" is more likely to attract market attention.
Tomorrow's land auction can be described as the last large-scale land auction in 2023, with 18 land plots for sale all residential plots, including 12 purely residential land and 6 mixed commercial and residential land, with a total land area of about 561 hectare, the total starting price is 1353.7 billion yuan.
18 plots of land are sold all overHexi Green Expo Park, Gulou Riverside, Chengdong Xianhemen, Maqun, Qixia Mountain, Jiangbei Core Area, Pukou Chengnan Center, Liuhe, Jiangning ChunhuaNine plates.
According to the distribution of the plots to be sold tomorrow, as well as the quality of the plots themselves, there is a high probability that the unrestricted land auction will be popular this time, coupled with the blessing of the "unlimited price" rule, it is more likely to reset the new housing system in Nanjing.
There are at least two reasons for this.
First, the three top-tier plots appeared, laying the foundation for the "popularity" of tomorrow's land auctions
Compared to 1125 land auctions, the quality of the land auctions tomorrow has improved a lot, especially the launch of Hexi Green Expo Park G88 plot, Gulou Binjiang G89 and Xuanwu Xianhemen G78 three main city top lot residential land!
Under the transmission of the values of returning to the main city and respecting the value of the city center, any of the three plots is enough to focus on the attention of major real estate companies.
Plot G88 of Hexi Green Expo Park
The land is located in the north of Hexi, north of the Green Expo Park, and on the north side of the Yingtian Street Elevated, with an area of only 13,9724. According to the plan, only 4 residential buildings can be planned and constructed. The size of the entire plot is only 1027 soil shoot a fifth of the Greentown G55.
However, in terms of location, the G88 of Green Expo Park is almost at the same longitude as G55 of Greentown Hexi from north to south, about 650 meters away from the Jiajiang shoreline, and about 370 meters away from Line 10 Green Expo Park Station
Aerial view of plot G88.
The east side of the plot is almost at the same latitude as Poly Tianyue and Xuhui Boyue Jinling, and in the area of northern Hebei, the urban interface north of Yingtian Street is better than that in the south, and the north is more conducive to creating new top residential products due to the large number of luxury houses.
How hot is the area where the plot is located?10.27 local auctions G55 was scrambled for 21 rounds, and Greentown won the market ** has said it all. Moreover, the plot ratio of the G88 plot to be sold tomorrow is higher than that of Greentown G55 (plot ratio 2.).2) Lower, only 18！It is more suitable to create a scarce large flat with river view.
There is also an important piece of information that needs to be revealedThe starting price of the G88 plot is only 34,314 yuan, which is about 3,500 yuan lower than the original starting price of Greentown G55, coupled with the "unlimited price local auction rule", determines that G88 will have a broader bidding space and possibilities.
Judging from the current comments on the Internet, Hexi G88 is very likely to drive the atmosphere of tomorrow's local auction and refresh the popular plot of Hexi's new house**, what is your opinion, please leave a message in the comment area.
Gulou Binjiang G89 plot
The G89 plot of Gulou Binjiang is located in the east of Rehe South Road and north of Xiaotaoyuan, which is the core area of Gulou and a rare and scarce residential land on the bank of the Qinhuai River.
There is Metro Line 9 under construction around the plot, the line Baiyunting Station is less than 200 meters away from the plot, and the urban interface around the plot is also excellent, with moats, small peach orchards, riverside scenery belts, Yuejiang Towers, etc. all within 4 kilometers.
The south side of the plot is Zhonghai Taoyuanli, the north side is Yanlord Taoyuan Century, and across the street is the contemporary Wanguo Mansion Pinching fingers to calculate that this area has not been sold for at least 5 years.
And Gulou Binjiang as the main city of the hot plate, this year's new housing ** is also extremely hot, the city's 35 lottery plates, Drum Tower accounted for 3, at the beginning of the year of the Jinji Haoyue 3 times opened 3 times 3 lotteries, all sold out, the lowest winning rate of only 18%;In November, Hengsheng Jinling Bay launched 66 sets of **, with a winning rate of 28%, and almost 4 people grabbed 1 suite;Moreover, the number of new houses in Gulou Binjiang itself is very small, and almost all of the real estate projects need to be lottered.
Such a gathering of popularity has laid a "hot" foundation for the sale of the G89 plot tomorrow, and the plot will be a mixed commercial and office land in 2021, with a plot ratio of up to 42. Now it has been changed to residential land, and the plot ratio has dropped to 22. It is bound to increase the attention of major real estate companies.
Xuanwu Xianhemen G78 plot
In fact, in the land supply plan in 2023, the column of Xuanwu District is "zero", but in order to comply with the market ** that returns to the city center, Xuanwu District has also taken out the residential land at the bottom of the box.
The G78 plot of Xianhemen is located in the west of Xianhemen No. 2 Road and north of Wenshu West Road, and is a land with an area of only 626381 small residential land, the plot is about 470 meters straight line with the Xianhemen subway station of Line 2, surrounded by commercial facilities such as Xianhemen Xintiandi Commercial Plaza and Zhongnan Magic Moonlight Commercial Plaza.
As the bridgehead of Xianlin University Town, the junction area of Xuzhuang Software Park, the last time this place was for land was 10 years ago, in 2014, the well-known home appliance giant Oaks defeated Vanke, Poly, Landsea, Yurun and other real estate companies, with a total price of 16600 million yuan won the G30 plot of Xianhemen and built the later Oaks Zhongshan Mansion, with a floor price of 12,022 yuan at that time.
Due to the strong value retention of real estate in Xianlin University Town;The current Oaks Zhongshan Mansion can still sell for 3The transaction price of 30,000 yuan (even close to the level of Hexi and Dajiaochang).
The Xianhemen G78 plot is only 2,000 yuan higher than the Oaks G30 that year, highlighting the cost performance of the plot!
The real scene of Xianhemen G78.
Moreover, the G78 plot of Xianhemen is still a piece of pure land, and the development difficulty is low, which has accumulated popularity for the plot.
Second, tomorrow the core area of Jiangbei will be auctioned out of 5 plots in one go.
Jianghe is the key plate of tomorrow's land auction, and five plots of G14, G15, G16, G17, and G18 have been brought out in one go!Since the beginning of this year, the Jianghe land auction market has been very cold, whether it is 925 low-density plots along the river launched by G05, G06 and G07 are still 10The G13 plots of the nuclear nuclear nuclear power launched by 27 land auctions are finally owned by TD, a state-owned enterprise under Jiangbei New Area.
In order to reverse the cold situation of Jiangbei land auctions, Jiangbei New Area has actually thought of many ways to reduce the floor area ratio and reduce the starting point of land auctions, but it seems that the results are not great.
This is the first "unlimited price" land auction of Jianghe residential land, I don't know if it will have a different effect.
The location of the four plots in the nucleus.
The four plots of G that will be sold tomorrow are in the same location, east of Guangxi Gong Street, only 450 meters away from the straight line of Binjiang Green Water Bay Garden, and there are Yangtze River Conference Center and Jiangbei New Area Civic Center across the street, and Jiangbei Underground City and Jiangbei's tallest building are also within 100 meters. The four plots belong to the first row of high-quality residential land worthy of the name of the nuclear core riverside.
G16 plot of Jianghe South University of Technology.
Another Jianghe plot G16 is located in the Southern University of Technology plate, and the west side of the plot is the former 13-16 Yangtze River EraOn the south side is the Heguang Jintang Mansion jointly developed by Poly, Yiju and New Hope. Across the road on the north side is the Yuying Erwai Xinpu Road Campus under construction. About 1 km to the south is the Wanhui City Station of Line 10, which has been put into operation.
Of the 5 plots in Jianghe, except for G15, the plot ratio of the remaining four residential land is as low as 16, much lower than the surrounding real estate.
The plot ratio of the Poly Yangtze Cuiyuntai to the south of the 4 plots of the nuclear core is as high as 28；The plot ratio of Heguang Jintang Mansion on the south side of G16 of Jianghe South University of Technology is 24。
Not only has the plot ratio decreased, but the transfer of Jianghe residential land was also further reduced！9.The starting price of the G sold by the 25th land auction is 22-2.30,000 range, and the starting price of G sold in the same area this time is only 18-1.90,000,It's only been 3 months, and it's dropped by 4,000 yuan
The land price of Nanjing University of Technology has also dropped a lot！The land price of the unit in Heguang Jintang Mansion in 2021 is 23,556 yuan, and the starting price of the G16 low-density residential land that will be sold tomorrow is only 18,028 yuanIt has dropped by 5000+ yuan
It can be said that in order to auction Jianghe tomorrow, Jianghe is also fighting, and because of the follow-up amount of soil reserves of Jianghe, it is the first time to participate in the unlimited price of the local auction, which can be described as success or failure!
Write at the end
Brother Bei believes that the focus of tomorrow's land auction will be on the three Wang bomb plots in Hexi, Gulou and Xuanwu and the five low-density residential plots in Jianghe. Whether it can change the cold ** of Nanjing's local shooting, and usher in the long-awaited local shooting war depends on tomorrow!
Editor-in-Chief's Profile:
Brother Su Bei, male, 11 years of financial work experience, 8,000 yuan from scratch, 6 consecutive cross-industry entrepreneurship have been successful, and the grassroots counterattack has been realized.
In 1994, he was the first house in his life, and in 2004, he focused on asset allocation, and had 28 years of practical experience in real estate, and was deeply involved in the Nanjing market. It is a real real estate practitioner in the industry!If you are interested in three things, real estate, entrepreneurship and investment, you are welcome to communicate with friends with the same hobbies.