Probably before this session, "how long the era of high interest rates will be", after which the talk of interest rate cuts drowned out all.
The practice is to first enter the meeting statement change point appreciation,Minor changes have been made to the key wording, which is considered a turn signal.
Change 1: Recent data point to a strong pace of economic activity since the third quarterhas slowed down。Inflation over the past yearhas slowed downBut it's still high.
The slowdown in economic growth is in line with policy intent, and the wording of the job market has not changed, but the description of inflation has finally been revised and regarded as a signal.
Change 2: To determine the extent of itWhateverAdditional policy tightening would be appropriate for inflation to return to 2%.
The banking crisis in the first half of the year led to a tightening of credit, introducing the narrative of additional policy tightening, but the policy pivot at that time was reversed by strong economic growth in the middle of the year, and the word "any" was added in an inconspicuous place at this meeting as a signal to resume the policy pivot (Powell confirmed at the press conference that any was intended to be the peak of interest rates in this cycle).
Dot plot of this sessionThe pivot of interest rates has shifted downward across the board, not only has it increased by 25bp less this year, but the pace of interest rate cuts next year is also a small step larger than beforeIn 2024, interest rates are expected to be cut three times to 450%-4.75%, an obvious policy turn signal.
Economic data expectations show thatDownward revision of economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2024In 2023, the economic growth rate will continue to rise sharply, and inflation will be sharply reduced。The expected GDP growth rate for the three years from 2023 to 2025 is: 8%, the unemployment rate is. 1%, inflation respectively. 1%, and core inflation respectively. 2%。
Highlights of the launch
Monetary policy
Monetary policy has well entered restrictive territory, proceeding cautiously and does not want to rule out the possibility of any further rate hikes;The timing of rate cuts was discussed in this session (which was not before).
Inflation
More needs to be seen, sustained and further progressed.
Labour market.
The job market remains tight, and the rebalancing of demand for labor over supply will continueNominal wage growth appears to be slowing, but slightly above the equilibrium level.
real estate market.
Activity in the real estate sector was stable due to higher mortgage rates.
Economic growth
The conditions for interest rate cuts do not need to be premised on the weakening of the economy, and normal economic growth may not require such high interest rates.
so...You see, at this point, I'm already thinking about rate cuts, rate cuts, rate cuts, rate cuts.