OneHot events
On January 5, an executive meeting was held to study the policy measures for the development of the silver economy and the promotion of the welfare of the elderly, and it was proposed to give full play to the role of various business entities and social organizations to better meet the multi-level and diversified needs of the elderly and jointly promote the development and growth of the silver economyIt is necessary to continue to improve relevant policies and measures, focusing on solving the urgent and difficult problems of the elderly such as home care, medical drugs, and health care, so that the elderly can enjoy a happy old age. According to the data of the "China Aging Industry Development Report", from 2014 to 2050, the consumption scale of China's elderly population will increase from 4 trillion yuan to about 106 trillion yuan, covering not only traditional fields such as medicine, real estate, and finance, but also emerging technology fields such as robots, wearable devices, and brain-computer interfaces. In 2035, the scale of the silver economy will reach 19 trillion yuan, accounting for 28% of total consumption and 9% of GDP6%。The growth rate of the medical industry is expected to remain at a high level, and we will pay attention to long-term investment opportunities in the field of medicine and biotechnology.
2. Hot comments
, silver economy ** in China's demographic situation changes
In recent years, China's population situation has changed, and there have been two major trends: negative population growth and demographic transformation. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national population was about 141.1 billion people, a decrease of 850,000 or 9.56 million over the end of the previous year, the birth of newborns and the death of 10.41 million people caused a population difference of 850,000, the first time since 1962 (that is, nearly 61 years) that there has been a net decrease in population, marking that China has entered an era of negative population growth. In 2021, the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) and the elderly population was 683%/14.2%, compared to 74 in 20114%/9.1%。
With the acceleration of social aging and the deepening of social aging, the scale of China's silver economy has expanded. According to consulting firm data**, the market size has reached 54 trillion yuan, with a CAGR of 15% from 2016 to 2021. The first generation of baby boom (1949-1957 after the founding of the People's Republic of China) is currently in the age group of 66-74 years old, has entered the pension stage, the second generation of baby boom (1962-1975 born population) is the largest baby boom in China, with an average annual birth population of more than 25 million, they are currently in the age group of 48 to 61 years old, with more social wealth, this part of the elderly benefit from the reform and opening up, enjoy a more complete education, education level has been improved, the rise of the Internet economy has also made their access to the Internet greatly improvedIt has experienced the era of rapid growth of the domestic economy, and its economic income has increased greatly and it has a strong ability to payIn the next 5-10 years, a large number of people will enter the pension stage, and the potential of the silver industry will also be rapidly released in the next 5-10 years.
The pharmaceutical and biological industries will directly benefit from the silver economy
The deepening of the aging society has brought incremental demand to the medical and health industry. The physical function of the elderly is declining, and the risk of disease is significantly higher than that of other groups, and the consumer demand for health care is rising. According to data from the SFDA Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics, the elderly in China account for about half of the total share of drug use. The intensification of aging is accompanied by the rapid expansion of the silver market, and the pharmaceutical industry has ushered in the first decade. The growth rate of the elderly drug market will be about 2% 5% higher than the growth rate of the entire industry. In addition, with the deepening of aging, home care and continuity for the elderly is also a new trend, and small and convenient medical devices for household use will usher in a period of strong demand.
China's healthcare market still has a lot of room for development. It is estimated that by 2035, the proportion of China's elderly population will exceed 20%, and China is gradually entering the era of severe aging. With the intensification of China's aging population, the per capita medical expenditure has continued to grow in absolute terms, increasing by more than 1 times from 2013 to 2021, and the per capita medical expenditure of domestic residents has maintained a double-digit growth rate except for the impact of the epidemic in 2020, and in 2021, the first full year after the outbreak of the epidemic, despite the impact of offline outpatient clinics and income, medical expenditure still maintained 14With a high double-digit growth rate of 8%, it is expected that the industry as a whole will continue to maintain an expenditure growth rate of more than 10%.
3. Multi-segmentation direction ushered in a period of industrial explosion
The medical needs brought by the aging population include: medical equipment, pension hospitals, first-class medical care, brand Chinese medicine and other directions, and it is expected to become a high-demand boom asset with policy support in the future. Household medical devices are deeply involved in the aging process of society, and the market size is large enough (over 200 billion), and participants are expected to benefit from the growth rate of the industry. **Aging** demand, strong correlation between chronic diseases or surgery, muscle, joint, nerve and other ** education has phased results, **medical treatment has become an explosive growth trend. At the same time, aging has led to an increase in the number of surgeries, centralized procurement has been continuously cleared, and new technologies have been continuously innovated and iterated. Orthopedics, vascular intervention, surgery and other tracks are worth long-term investment.
3. Investment strategy
Pay attention to the regular population report to be released this month, which may become a signal of recent event-driven transactions, and it is expected that the pharmaceutical and biological industry will become an industry that will benefit from China's demographic changes for a long time under the high growth rate of industry expenditure, which is recommended to pay attention toETFs related to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industryConfiguration
Underlying Index Opportunities:
, Hang Seng Pharma ETF (159892) and Connect** (Class A: 016970, Class C: 016971).Tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Biotech Index (HSHKBIO.).HI), which aims to reflect the overall performance of the 50 largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong, including those listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under Chapter 18A of the Listing Rules (and companies that are not yet profitable), and from the perspective of the Shenwan** industry, mainly invest in Hong Kong-listed biotech companies.
The top 10 weighted stocks in the index include:BeiGene (10.)90%), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (994%), Innovent Biologics (840%), WuXi Biologics (7%), Sino Biologics (5.).85%）Wait.
, Biotech ETF (516500) and Connect** (Class A: 017604, Class C: 017605).Tracks the CSI Biotech Thematic Index (930743CSI), which selects listed companies involved in genetic diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products and other human biotechnology, focuses on the overall performance of listed biotechnology companies, and has more room for growth.
and Medicine and Health ETF (510660).The underlying index tracked by this ** is the SSE Medical and Health Industry Index (000037).SH), the SSE Pharmaceutical Index is composed of 50 constituent stocks in the Shanghai market, with sub-sectors involving chemical drugs, services, traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, commerce and devices.
, Medical Device ETF (562600).Tracking the CSI All-Index Medical Device Index, selecting the ** in the CSI All-Index medical device industry as a sample stock, focusing on companies providing healthcare supplies and equipment, and comprehensively reflecting the stock price performance of A-share medical device companies.
Data**: Wind, Everbright**, Open Source**, National Bureau of Statistics, Huaxia**, the risk level of the above products is R4 (medium and high risk), and the above ** belongs to *** risk and return is higher than that of hybrid**, bonds** and money market**. Not as a recommendation. When subscribing for Class A**, a one-time subscription fee will be charged, and there will be no sales service feeThere is no subscription fee for category C, but there is a sales service fee. There may be a big difference in the long-term performance of the two due to different fees and establishment times, etc., please refer to the product periodic report for details. Before investing, investors should carefully read the "Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgments and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently bear investment risks. The Hong Kong stock price may show more drastic stock price fluctuations than A-shares), exchange rate risk (exchange rate fluctuations may cause losses to the investment income of **), the risk of incoherence in the trading days under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism (in the case of the opening of the mainland and the closure of the Hong Kong market, the Hong Kong Stock Connect cannot be traded normally, and the Hong Kong stocks cannot be sold in time, which may bring certain liquidity risks), etc. **Mainly invest in the constituent stocks of the underlying index and alternative constituent stocks, which are higher risk and higher return products in ***. Cross-border ETFs implement the T+0 rotation trading mechanism, which shortens the capital operation cycle, which may bring short-term volatility risks. This **ETF**, investors investing in this ** face potential risks such as tracking error control not reaching the agreed target, the suspension of services of index compilation institutions, the suspension of trading of constituent bonds, the risk of deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the market, the risk of fluctuation of the underlying index, the risk of deviation between the return of the portfolio and the return of the underlying index, the risk of change of the underlying index, the risk of discount premium in the secondary market trading of **shares, and the risk of error in the subscription and redemption list. Refer to the risk of IOPV decision-making and IOPV calculation error, delisting risk, the risk of failure of investors' subscription and redemption, the risk of realizing the redemption consideration of ** shares, the risk of derivatives investment, etc.
For ETF Feeding**, the assets are primarily invested in the target ETF and in most cases will maintain a high proportion of the target ETF investment, the net value may fluctuate with the net value of the target ETF, and the risks associated with the target ETF may directly or indirectly become the risk of ETF Connecting**. Specific risks associated with ETF connectivity** also include: tracking deviation risk, risk of deviation from the performance of the target ETF, risk of discontinuation of services by the index compiler, risk of change of the underlying index, risk of suspension or default of constituent bonds, etc.
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