I don't know, have you noticed such a phenomenon:
China's economy will get better and better in the future, and the global economy will always be thriving, but you find itOur personal well-being is not necessarily getting better.
100 years ago, as long as there was no war, peace and stability, people were very happy, and later people said that it was enough to eat and clothe, but today, for most people, it is difficult to make you happy simply by being full and clothed.
This means that although society and economy have progressed, people's happiness has not improved much.
The root cause of this problem, my understanding is that people's happiness is not really due to the acquisition of certain substances, but from the improvement of the ranking in the circle.
It's like the company gives bonuses, everyone only has 1,000 yuan, but you have 5,000 yuan, then you feel very happy. But if everyone has 10,000 yuan, you have 8,000 yuan, although compared to 5,000, you have 3,000 more, but in fact, you are likely to be lost at this time.
I would like to say that even as the global economy continues to develop and the level of people around the world as a whole continues to improve, the happiness of everyone does not necessarily increase dramatically.
Because the law of economic and social development isThe strong get stronger, the weak get weaker, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer
Even if the world's money is distributed equally among everyone today, there will still be people who continue to create wealth and become capitalists in less than a year, and there will still be people who go bankrupt again and return to poverty and become proletarians.
Therefore, even if the industrial revolution continues to progress and the economy continues to develop, it will also improve the overall level, and the high probability that this will be accompanied by the continuous differentiation of the social class structure.
Japanese trend scientist Kenichi Ohmae proposed the concept of M-shaped society, which describes the transformation of Japanese society from the original middle class as the mainstream of society to the two extremes of wealth and poverty. Not only Japan, but also Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and many other regions today have become like this. Why is there an M-shaped structure in society?
Under the current development model, all countries inevitably have such a common problem, and the middle class is on the way to shrinking and disappearing. If we look at it from the perspective of development, it also has its inherent rationality.
The first factor isReduction in employment opportunities。I have always encouraged the development of technology, because the development of technology will bring about an increase in the productivity of the whole society, which will bring convenience to everyone's life.
The progress of the Internet in the past 20 years has fully proved this.
But on the other hand, we can also see that in this process of progress, there will always be people who will be eliminated.
In the early years, the decline in employment opportunities in Japan was mainly due to the substitution of globalization, and the prosperity of Japan and the large existence of the Japanese middle class around the seventies and eighties were mainly due to the high employment rate and the stable development of the manufacturing industry in Japan, and the large recruitment of enterprises.
However, the acceleration of globalization has hollowed out Japanese industry, and the development of Japanese companies has also become polarized.
At the same time, the development of enterprises has higher and higher requirements for workers in enterprises, and the positions have begun to be continuously optimized, and the work of three people has become the work of one person through scientific management and technological change, so that the Japanese middle class has lost the foundation of income growth, and finally evolved into an M-shaped social structure.
In this way, today's 5G technology and artificial intelligence progress are not the same？In this way, many cutting-edge manufacturing enterprises are now moving towards unmanned manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing, and the workshops with hundreds of people in the past only need 20-30 professional technical jobs after becoming intelligent manufacturing.
At the same time, with the continuous implementation of the RCEP signing, the low-end manufacturing of many industries will face low-cost competition from Southeast Asia and other countries, and will eventually be forced to migrate to Southeast Asia.
In this way, this is the first cause of the formation of m-shaped societies in many parts of Asia, and we see that we ourselves have such a shadow.
The second factor, the gig economy and the tax burden
Today, many people will choose part-time gig jobs such as food delivery and Didi, which have some drawbacks, that is, there are certain gaps in social security, provident fund, salary stability and other aspects of gig work, and the comprehensive income is lower than that of most full-time jobs.
At this time, if the low-income people or the income is unstable people are taxed, it will increase the burden even more, A income of 1 million, pay 400,000 taxes, B income 60,000, pay 10,000 taxes, although A pays more taxes, but in fact, B pays taxes on life is greater, this kind of part-time nature of gig workers in China now has a large number of appearances in all walks of life, the future is expected to gradually increase. So, the second trend is also showing up in China.
The third factor is the gradual increase in the dependency ratio
It was also around that time that Japan's economy entered an M-shaped society about 20 years after its high point. With the advent of the aging population, the Japanese middle class is facing an increasingly heavy burden of support, which also brings great pressure on its spending.
At that time, Japan was divided because of problems in population, industry, politics, finance, and other aspects, and finally superimposed to form the Japanese today. At present, China has also seen an aging population.
As we said above, these three factors, the decline in job opportunities, the development of the gig economy, the balance of tax revenue, and the increase in the dependency ratio were all more serious in Japan back then, and if we look back at our day, all three problems exist at the same time, so from this perspective, our society as a whole will continue to improve in the future.
However, if it is distributed to everyone, there is a high probability that an M-shaped society will eventually be formed, and the middle class will continue to shrink. In the stage of forming an M-shaped society, social mobility and economic growth will be greatly affected.
Due to the development of technology, in the end, some people will do the work with high technical difficulty, and some jobs with low technical difficulty but strong service will also be done by another part of the people, but there will be a big technical and cognitive gap in the middle, which will bring about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
Therefore, we can see the differentiation and divergence at the consumption level, the era of low consumption with high quality and low price will become a mainstream, and the other part is that the era of consumption upgrading will also become the mainstream. So how do you avoid spilling over to the individual?
In the course of history, we can largely attribute the fuse to the financial crisis of the 90s, and the outbreak of the financial crisis was actually a great reshuffle of wealth.
Everyone said that it was a shuffle, but in the end it turned out that the shuffled cards were in the hands of the majority of the middle class
Just like the financial turmoil when the epidemic broke out in February and March this year, the assets **skyrocketed**, the global water was released, and now all kinds of assets ** have stabilized and rebounded again, in this process of falling and rising, we see that the rich have more money, and the net worth of those on the Forbes rich list has doubled, but how much of the money of the poor has doubled?What about even a double?In today's process, many people have lost their jobs and lost their income.
The unemployment rate in the United States rose sharply to 15% in the first half of the year, and among the increase in the unemployment rate of more than 10%, there are very few rich people. When the financial crisis comes, the rich have the money to continue to increase their positions, and eventually they can buy a lot of assets at a low level, and most of the middle class will have too few chips, so the abnormal crisis will directly rob these people, and those proletarians have no chips, so they are still proletarians, the financial crisis will make the global gap between the rich and the poor continue to increase, so in order to deal with this situation, the middle class and the proletarians must have their own way of coping, if it is the middle class, it is a medium high, never increase leverage, reduce the debt ratio.
If the fluctuation of assets one day, when it comes again, in fact, you are full, but because there is no leverage, in fact, there is no washing, when the economy recovers in the future, the assets will naturally return, if it is proletarian, try more possibilities.
For the proletarians, who are originally barefoot, they should not be afraid of wearing shoes, on the basis of a certain ability, they should add positive leverage as much as possible, such as the financial crisis when the assets are large, and at the same time they also have some market trading experience, at this time it is better to take this month's salary directly to buy options, if they judge wrong, the big deal is to lose a month or two of wages, but if the judgment is correct, they may earn dozens of times the money at once, and become a small middle class.
This is just one example, reserve capacity is the premise of everything.
In fact, there are still a lot of opportunities in every field in China today, if the M-shaped social structure will eventually come in the future, then what we have to do today is to try more possibilities, ordinary workers should also begin to learn Xi how to usher in the future factory when the intelligent, they can also have a certain ability to operate, ordinary white-collar workers should also try to learn Xi and break into the company's most potential departments and the core. In short, follow the steps and do things rigidly, and the high probability of being eliminated in the end is to be eliminated.
Today's article is limited in space, it can't bring you more problem-solving skills, and I hope that after you finish reading, you can see the future trend clearly, see the future scene, and you will find that the future has a positive side and a negative side.
But this wind will blow sooner or later, when the wind blows, pigs can't fly, you have to have wings, and when the subsequent wind becomes a breeze, people with hard enough wings will learn to fly, and people with not enough wings will be hurt to the ground.
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