Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that the first ** released a research report that was catalyzed by the successive release of new models by various terminal mobile phone manufacturersThe smartphone market is expected to start in 2023Q4 and 2024**Analog chip companies with a high proportion of downstream mobile phone fields are expected to benefit deeply, and it is recommended to pay attention to Nanxin Technology (688484).sh) and so on. With the gradual destocking of downstream manufacturers such as AIoT and the drive of hardware innovation of various intelligent terminals driven by AI, SoC companies with a high proportion of downstream AIoT are expected to benefit, and it is recommended to pay attention to Jingchen shares (688099sh) and so on. Products such as smart watches and TWS headphones are expected to usher in a recovery driven by the popularity of smartphones, and it is recommended to pay attention to Hengxuan Technology (688608sh) and so on.
The main points of the first ** are as follows:
Q3 mobile phone and PC shipments narrowed year-on-year, and the release of new flagship phones is expected to detonate the market.
According to TechInsights data, global smartphone shipments in 2023Q3 were 29.6 billion units, a year-on-year increase of -03%, +10% QoQ. According to IDC data, China's smartphone shipments in 2023Q3 will be about 67.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of -63%, +15%。According to Canalys data, global PC shipments in 2023Q3 were 65.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of -70%, +8% QoQ. In terms of mobile phone and PC shipment data, although shipments in 2023Q3 are still declining year-on-year, the decline has narrowed significantly, and the market is expected to be rekindled under the release of new phones of various terminal brands.
The main chip manufacturers have released SoC chips that support AI computing, and AI mobile phones are expected to drive the demand for replacement.
On October 24, 2023, Qualcomm released the third-generation Snapdragon 8 mobile platform, bringing generative AI to the next generation of flagship smartphones. On November 6, 2023, MediaTek officially released the Dimensity 9300, which is the first to be equipped with a hardware-based generative AI engine, which can achieve faster and more secure edge AI computing. With the successive launch of AI mobile phones equipped with the above two chips, it is expected to boost the demand for mobile phone replacement.
Analog chips: The performance of different downstream companies has been differentiated, and the recovery of consumer products is obvious.
After several quarters of digestion, the inventory level of the terminal manufacturers is gradually close to normal, driven by the demand for consumer electronics in the third and fourth quarters, the revenue of analog companies with a high proportion of consumer electronics such as mobile phones in the downstream has begun to show a significant increase in Q2, and most companies in Q3 revenue continues to increase quarter-on-quarter. Downstream demand for industrial control, automobiles and LED lighting drivers was relatively flat.
Digital chips: Q3 revenue grew year-on-year, and wearable demand improved significantly.
AIoT demand showed a weak recovery, and breakthroughs in overseas and automotive markets drove some companies to increase in Q3 year-on-year. ChatGPT has detonated the boom of AI applications, and industry companies continue to invest in R&D to increase the layout of high-computing power chips, focusing on the demand for SoC driven by terminal intelligent hardware innovation. Benefiting from the recovery of terminal demand and the volume of new products, the revenue of wearable SOC companies increased significantly year-on-year. The white label market and the Indian market have strong demand for wearables, and the attention of wearable products on the domestic brand side is expected to increase under the influence of the popularity of smartphones.
Risk Warning:
Consumer demand is weak, AI is not as good as expected in terminals, and competition in the industry is intensifying.