If 2023 is a year of ups and downs, a year of anxiety and hesitation, I believe not many people will object;Over the course of the year, confidence has become a high-frequency word, and from top to bottom, the word confidence has been repeatedly mentioned, behind which is the structural test of the macroeconomy with damaged consumer confidence.
This year, the emotions of young people have also affected this era to some extent, from involution to lying flat, from postgraduate entrance examination to public examination, from praying to worshiping Buddha to burning high incense, the emotions of the times are mixed with personal unwillingness or obsession.
In any case, looking back on 2023 is not only a good time for us to look at ourselves, but also a good opportunity to look at this era, and we need to understand that macro changes, personal feelings about the economy, will ultimately affect the economy itself.
What kind of society there is, what kind of economy there is;In 2023, as always, a lot has changed.
For young people, especially recent graduates, this year may not be friendly, and this winter will seem unusually cold.
According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, 1 hour of working hours per week is considered employment, and in June this year, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 in China reached a record 213%, so much so that from July, youth unemployment data will no longer be published.
In the modern business society, you can have nothing, but you can't do without work, and work not only means income, it means material abundance, and more importantly, work also means that you will not be "idle".
The severity of the employment situation may continue for several years from the perspective of college graduates in the next few years.
Behind the severe unemployment rate, the downturn in the Internet, education and training industries, and even the real estate industry has weakened the demand for recruitment to a certain extent, which has led to the deterioration of young people's employment.
By this year, consumption has become a top priority, one person's consumption is another person's income, and only when consumption is up, the employment data will improve.
Typhoon Doksuri caused severe flooding in northern China, and the disaster once spread from northern China to northeast China.
In July this year, China was hit by two typhoons in just one month, and the direct economic losses caused by natural disasters reached 411800 million yuan, more than the total damage in the first half of this year.
The disaster has not only caused immeasurable losses to the local area, but also the assessment and compensation of major assets such as houses and cars, and even the negative impact on the macro economy, from post-disaster reconstruction to post-disaster recovery.
At the end of August this year, Huawei unexpectedly launched the Mate 60 Pro, a high-end smartphone that claims to be "far ahead", which has attracted widespread attention in the tech circle.
The phone uses a 7-nanometer chip developed by SMIC, the largest chip manufacturer in China, because it involves technology that the United States hopes to prevent China from acquiring through sanctions, which also makes Huawei famous again.
After disassembling the mobile phone, the semiconductor research institute found that it used a 7-nanometer process chip of the domestic Kirin 9000s.
The smaller the manufacturing process, the higher the precision of the chip integrated circuit, and the more complex the manufacturing process.
In addition, the Mate 60 Pro also has the performance of a 5G phone.
The unveiling of this mobile phone has made many people cheer, and it has become one of the few public excitement events in 2023, which is also regarded as a victory for my country's science and technology.
What's more, the release of this phone was also a visit by the U.S. Secretary of Commerce to China, which was also interpreted as a signal that we no longer rely on U.S. semiconductor chips.
Since Evergrande's debt problem last year, Evergrande's founder Boss Xu was not controlled for too long, and on September 28, Evergrande's Hong Kong stocks were collectively suspended.
Later, Evergrande Group officially announced the whereabouts of Boss Xu and said that he had been taken compulsory measures in accordance with the law because he was suspected of violating laws and regulations.
I saw him raise the Zhu Tower, I saw him feast guests, and I saw his building collapse.
Evergrande's problems are a microcosm of what real estate developers are generally facing;With the downturn in macroeconomic growth, people's expectations for houses have weakened, and real estate sales are difficult, which is undoubtedly a big dilemma for developers who are in high need of cash flow.
This also confirms from the side that the development model of real estate "horse racing" in the past is not reliable.
Now, it's time for real estate developers to pay for the blindness of the past.
According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics on December 9, the CPI, the main inflation indicator, fell by 0.0 year-on-year in November5%, in addition to the 14th consecutive month of decline in the Industrial Producers** PPI.
CPI and PPI both fell, what this means is self-evident, this has shown that there is a risk of deflation, especially considering that CPI and PPI are not the first time**, which also shows that consumption and demand have been greatly constrained this year, and at such a juncture at the end of 2023, it has almost set the tone for next year's economy.
Prevent deflation and fight deflation.
Deflation will make goods cheaper and cheaper, which seems to be a good sign, but the long-term macroeconomic damage of deflation is undoubtedly huge.
Because consumers will tend to postpone purchases, which is a rational wait-and-see mood, and because consumers delay purchases, market demand will decline, which in turn will lead to companies to reduce production, freeze personnel recruitment and even reduce corporate investment, and decide to further reduce prices to empty inventory.
The loss of corporate profits must ultimately be based on the loss of employee income. On top of that, a negative cycle is created as employees expect their earnings to decline, which in turn leads to sluggish consumption.
Of course, 2023 is not only that, during this period, there are rat heads and duck necks, there are also stadium collapses, and even complaints about A-shares, etc., and the loss of foreign capital this year has also caused heated discussions.
These things seem to have nothing to do with us personally, but in a sense, they are closely related to us.
The growth luck of an economy is actually the level of opportunity for individuals.
Of course, 2023 is not only that, during this period, there are rat heads and duck necks, there are also stadium collapses, and even complaints about A-shares, etc., and the loss of foreign capital this year has also caused heated discussions.
These things seem to have nothing to do with us personally, but in a sense, they are closely related to us.
The growth luck of an economy is actually the level of opportunity for individuals.
This year is about to pass, and next year will be a new year, but the "new" is more just our new calendar, and in the natural world and even in the physical world, everything still follows the context and logic of the past, which is also true for the economy and society.
If we can, the new year is a great comforting thing to say, it means we can restart, we can start over, we can look at ourselves from a whole new perspective, but time has changed, and we ask ourselves, are we really changing with the time?
Not really. Looking at the world around us rationally and actively preparing for the new year may be the best strategy;The big events in 2023, from macro to micro, are good and bad, and this also predicts next year to a certain extent.
end.Author: Luo sir, the workplace reference of the new youth. Concerned about the logic behind the development of things, optimistic pessimists. Follow me and grind the knowledge to you.
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