After the defeat of Ukraine, the war will not be able to continue, and it is now generally believed that next year will be a very critical year for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
If reconciliation can be reached, next year is the best chance, and if reconciliation cannot be reached next year, the war is likely to be prolonged for more than a year.
Next year's situation is somewhat similar to that of last March.
At that time, Russia and Ukraine negotiated in Turkey, and if an agreement was reached, the war would end directly, but if no agreement was reached, it would only be possible to divide the victory and defeat on the battlefield.
The Russian expert referred to the plans of the Russian side, and Russia has made preparations for different scenarios that may arise.
Russia-Ukraine conflict).Plan A and Plan B
According to the Russian RT, Russian expert Sergei Poletaev referred to Russia's plans A and B.
Plan A is to make a big deal with the West and finally reach a settlement;
Plan B is to fight to the end and completely eliminate the threat of Ukraine.
Poletaev noted that if Ukraine does not collapse in the coming months, the war will enter a period of relative calm until the United States completes it**.
Regardless of who wins the **, Russia can propose an agreement to the new **.
Poletaev believes that ending the conflict through negotiations is a higher priority than mobilizing more soldiers to win on the battlefield.
He said it was more important to make a big deal with the West than to crush Kyiv.
The advantage of the deal is that Russia does not have to invest more resources in the war, and Ukraine is more receptive to the outcome of the negotiationsAfter all, as long as Russia and the West negotiate, the West will also put pressure on Ukraine to accept the results of the negotiations.
Russo-Georgian War).Ukraine will turn into a large Georgia
Poletaev pointed out that a deal between Russia and the West would be the best solution for Ukraine, which could turn Ukraine into an enlarged version of Georgia.
This is also Putin's consistent policy.
When the Russian-Georgian War broke out, Russia could easily destroy Georgia, but the Russian army could stop and withdraw after the beating.
This time the situation is similar, Russia's main purpose is to punish Ukraine and make Ukraine pay a certain price.
If Ukraine can accept Russia's conditions and become a large Georgia, the benefits for Ukraine will be obvious.
You can look at the current relations between Russia and Georgia, the two sides have cooperated a lot, and the well water does not interfere with the river water, and neither side threatens the security of the other.
If Ukraine gets along with Russia in this way, it will also be able to allow Ukraine to develop in peace and stability.
Ukraine has proven that it cannot defeat Russia, and in this case, it is much better to choose to recuperate and cultivate internal strength than to continue to provoke Russia, but if it does not know the current affairs, Ukraine may completely lose its future.
Russia-Ukraine conflict).It's not impossible to fight to the end
Russia's final choice is not entirely up to Russia.
Russia has always expressed its willingness to negotiate, but the West and the Ukrainian side have repeatedly refused to negotiate.
Negotiating this kind of thing, a slap in the face can't make a sound.
In the case of the other side's insistence on opposing the negotiations, Russia will have to continue to fight.
Once this happens, the war may last for a long time, but the final result will not change much, and Russia, which has paid a greater price, will inevitably reap more benefits on the battlefield to make up for its losses, and Ukraine will only lose even more.