CCTV *** Focus Interview): Investment is an important starting point for stabilizing growth and promoting development. Since the beginning of this year, a number of major projects have been started one after another, and investment projects in various places have been steadily promoted, providing strong support for us to expand domestic demand, stabilize growth, and benefit people's livelihood. Of course, stabilizing investment is not to engage in "strong stimulus", the purpose is not to stimulate temporary economic growth, but to face the future and build a foundation for high-quality development. So, this year, what have we done to stabilize investment?What's next?
Towards the end of the year, a large number of major projects have been completed across the country, and a number of major projects are still accelerating. In Shaanxi, the construction of the Yan'an-Yulin high-speed railway has begunIn Hainan, Sanya Phoenix International Airport and Qionghai Boao Airport have launched three phases of reconstruction and expansionIn Zhejiang, the largest span sea-crossing bridge in China, Shuangyumen Bridge, officially entered the construction stage of the main tower on the seaOn the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China's highest-altitude photovoltaic projects are also under construction.
Investment is one of the "troikas" driving economic growth, how can this "carriage" play a better role in economic recovery?This year, China proposed to effectively drive the investment of the whole society through first-class investment and policy incentives, accelerate the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" major projects, and plan to arrange local ** special bonds throughout the year 38 trillion yuan, all regions and departments have also taken practical measures to ensure land, capital, labor demand and other aspects to create a good investment environment.
Guo Liyan, Director of the Situation Office of the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute: "Since the beginning of this year, a series of measures to stabilize investment have been accelerated and have achieved remarkable results. From the perspective of the total investment growth rate, it is currently around 3%, and considering the best factors, the actual investment growth rate is about 6%. Moreover, whether it is manufacturing investment or infrastructure investment, it has achieved a stable growth rate on the basis of last year's high base, and such results have not been easy to achieve. ”
To do a good job in stabilizing investment, we should give better play to the leverage role of "four or two thousand pounds" of investment to ensure the effective implementation of major development strategies and key tasks. At present, the three major hubs of the Pinglu Canal, the backbone project of the new western land-sea corridor, have fully entered the main structure construction stage, and tens of thousands of builders are working intensively.
Infrastructure is an important support for economic and social development. Since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have accelerated the implementation of major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, and a number of major projects such as transportation, water conservancy and energy have been accelerated, which have played a key role in stabilizing investment and promoting growth.
From January to October, China's infrastructure investment increased by 5% year-on-year9%, of which, the investment growth in the water transportation industry and the railway transportation industry is more than 20%. The driving role of investment in large projects has been significantly enhanced, and the investment in projects with a total planned investment of 100 million yuan and above has increased by 9% year-on-year9%, the growth rate is 7 higher than the total investment in fixed assets0 percentage points.
Guo Liyan: "Investment has played a very key role in supporting the moderately advanced deployment of infrastructure. In view of the 102 major projects and major projects related to the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the relevant departments have also taken multiple measures at the same time, including strengthening the guarantee of the elements of investment in these major projects, including investment-related service mechanisms, including the use of policy-based and open financial instruments. At the same time, according to their own actual conditions, various localities have laid out some infrastructure projects in advance, and the relevant local special bonds have been issued at an accelerated pace, and the optimization of use and management has also strongly supported the accelerated construction of infrastructure in various places. ”
In order to give better play to the key role of investment, it is necessary to accurately grasp the direction of investment. In addition to infrastructure construction, it is also necessary to focus investment on key areas and weak links, and give full play to the prominent role of investment in "promoting upgrading" and "making up for shortcomings".
He Ping, deputy dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University: "I think there are still shortcomings in some medical care, education, and some areas of people's livelihood, and there are also shortcomings in domestic demand in a sense. We need to invest accordingly to boost consumer demand, especially in the service sector. Producer services and the service industry that matches the manufacturing industry may be the focus of stimulating domestic demand in the future. In the field of science and technology, as well as the field of digital economy, there are important areas to invest in, in the field of science and technology, we can focus on artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and the digital economy can vigorously promote new infrastructure. ”
In Wuhu, Anhui Province, as one of the top ten data center clusters of "Eastern Data and Western Computing", the "China Island" Intelligent Computing Center is stepping up construction.
Since the beginning of this year, China has further strengthened its support for the construction of new infrastructure, and a number of first-class budgeted investments have been issued in a centralized manner, and various localities have also increased investment in new infrastructure through special bonds. In the first 10 months of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 130 fixed asset investment projects, with a total investment of 108 trillion yuan, which has increased investment in new infrastructure such as charging facilities, industrial Internet, and data centers.
Guo Liyan: "Since the beginning of this year, there have been many bright spots in the investment in the field of new infrastructure and the effect of the entire operation of new infrastructure. In terms of information infrastructure, 5G + artificial intelligence + Internet of Things + industrial Internet, related application demonstration projects have been accelerated. Converged infrastructure is also a typical type of new infrastructure, since the beginning of this year, the construction of smart grids, smart water networks, and smart transportation networks has also been significantly accelerated. ”
He Ping: "In the long run, it will inevitably play a very important role, because the development of the digital economy is the key direction of future economic development. On the one hand, it will bring some traditional manufacturing and even some traditional consumption upgrades;In addition, it will also bring some new growth points to the economy, new business models, new consumption patterns, and some new changes due to the use of digital technology. ”
At present, China is committed to integrating scientific and technological innovation resources, leading the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries, and accelerating the formation of new quality productivity. Since the beginning of this year, policies and tools to encourage scientific and technological innovation have been continuously enriched, and various localities have continued to increase innovation investment represented by high-tech industries and technical services.
In Shaanxi, the photonic industry strong chain with a total scale of 2 billion yuan has just been establishedIn Henan, around new non-ferrous metals, etc., is accelerating the construction of a trillion-level new material industrial cluster;In Yichun, Jiangxi, a lithium-ion battery factory with a total investment of 13.5 billion yuan has recently been fully put into operation, and the annual output value of batteries will exceed 50 billion yuan.
On the one hand, we will increase investment in technological transformation and promote the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries, and on the other hand, we will actively cultivate strategic emerging industries and form more advanced manufacturing industry clusters. Since the beginning of this year, although the growth rate of investment has slowed down, China's investment structure has been continuously optimized. From January to October, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11 percent year-on-year1%, the growth rate is 8 times higher than the total investment in fixed assets2 percentage points.
He Ping: "We have made a lot of investments in technology, manufacturing, green and consumption, which are different from traditional investments, and we are especially focused on the positive long-term effects that these investments may bring to our technological progress, productivity improvement and efficiency improvement in the future." Therefore, these investments will not only drive China's economic growth in the short term, but also drive the further improvement of China's productivity in the long run, and will drive the transformation of the entire manufacturing industry. ”
While giving full play to the role of investment in "promoting upgrading", it is also necessary to take into account "making up for shortcomings", and continue to promote investment in key areas such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, ecology, and people's livelihood.
This year, China has implemented a new round of rural road construction and renovation. Some time ago, the reconstruction of the Tongcun Road in Taoyuan Village, Ji'an City, Jiangxi Province was completed, and the pavement was changed from the original 35 meters widened to 7 meters, and safety fences were installed along the curves. The convenient transportation has attracted many tourists to come here to enjoy the thousands of acres of alpine terraces, and more than 60 villagers who have moved their families due to "difficult roads" have also returned to the village one after another and eaten "tourist meals".
Guo Liyan: "Since the beginning of this year, the investment in the field of people's livelihood has been accelerated, and the intensity is very great, for the construction of affordable housing, the transformation of old communities, the transformation of urban villages in some key cities, and the current emphasis on the construction of public service infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, as well as the recent introduction of a series of work such as we want to speed up the layout of service facilities such as pension and childcare in urban communities, all of which focus on people-centered and people-serving investment. The acceleration of investment in such areas of people's livelihood is conducive to improving the living standards of households and providing better quality living services. ”
*Investment and private investment are indispensable. Private investment accounts for more than half of China's overall investment, and plays an important role in promoting economic development, promoting economic transformation and upgrading, and ensuring employment. Since last year, the growth of private investment has faced great difficulties and downward pressure. Affected by problems such as insufficient demand, some business confidence has not yet fully recovered. Some private enterprises participate in projects with strong investment intentions, and there are still some unreasonable threshold restrictions.
In order to activate the vitality of private investment, this year, China has put forward a series of innovative measures in terms of project promotion, factor guarantee, and problem reflection. In September, the National Development and Reform Commission released 4,894 key projects with a total investment of about 527 trillion yuan. All localities have also taken practical measures to break down various hidden barriers and create a good business environment, so that private capital dares to invest and can invest.
Guo Liyan: "From January to October, the growth rate of private investment excluding real estate was 91%。Whether it is private investment in the manufacturing sector or in the infrastructure sector, the investment growth rate has been maintained by more than %. Focusing on subdivisions, private investment related to scientific and technological innovation and cultural tourism and life services has maintained double-digit growth. With this series of structural optimization and the current development trend, we judge that the internal vitality of private investment has been activated and is in the process of further enhancement. ”
At present, all localities are taking major projects as the starting point, seizing the construction period, and striving to achieve more practical results within the year.
Guo Liyan: "Looking forward to next year and the coming period, the entire stable investment will play a more critical role in stabilizing growth and promoting the national economy to take advantage of the momentum and achieve steady and long-term development." I believe that in the field of scientific and technological innovation, in the process of green and low-carbon development, there is still a lot of room for investment in the relevant green industrial chain. Moreover, in the process of accelerating the new urbanization, there is also a lot of potential for investment to better serve the improvement of people's livelihood and the integrated development of the entire urban and rural areas. So I think effective investment is expected to play a greater role in reinforcing the vitality and resilience of the internal energy. ”
In the fourth quarter of this year, the Ministry of Finance issued an additional 1 trillion yuan of national bonds in 2023 to provide financial guarantee for the construction of projects to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capabilities. Under the effect of various policies, it is believed that the investment potential will be further unleashed in 2024 and continue to promote the high-quality development of China's economy.