Leju Finance Li LiOn December 11, Ping An released a weekly report on the real estate industry.
Weekly view: This week, REITs are planned to be included in the scope of social security ** investment, three warehousing and logistics public REITs have been accepted, and the normalized issuance process of REITs has been accelerated. In the short term, with the rise of developers at the end of the year, the transaction at the end of the year is expected to improve, but the market prosperity will still hover at the bottom. In terms of investment suggestions, short-term fundamental changes are still the key to affecting the real estate sector, in the medium and long term, with the advantages of financing and land acquisition, and with the help of the industry adjustment period to continuously optimize the asset quality, real estate enterprises are expected to gradually win, it is recommended to pay attention to Yuexiu Real Estate, Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, C&D International Group, Huafa Co., Ltd., China Overseas Land, Binjiang Group, Vanke A, etc. At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to property management and industrial chain opportunities, such as Poly Property, China Merchants Accumulation, Greentown Management Holdings, Oriental Yuhong, Keshun Shares, Weixing New Materials, Jianlang Hardware, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: REITs are planned to be included in the scope of social security ** investment, and three warehousing and logistics public REITs have been accepted.
Market operation monitoring: 1) New home transactions have fallen, and they are expected to improve in the future. This week (122-12.8) New house transaction 220,000 sets, down 229%, second-hand housing transactions 180,000 sets, down 1 month-on-month4%。The average daily transaction of new homes in November fell by 19 percent year-on-year9%, a decrease of 7 from October7pct。With the implementation of the easing policy in the property market and the increase in the number of launches in the fourth quarter, short-term transactions are expected to gradually improve. 2) Inventory decreased slightly month-on-month, and the destocking cycle was 182 months. The forensic inventory in 16 cities was 103.6 million square meters, down 2 percent from the previous month7%。Decontamination cycle 182 months. 3) Land transactions and premium rates rebounded, and the proportion of second-tier investors increased. Last week, the land of 100 cities was built with a construction area of 751980,000 square meters, 5,336 square meters20,000 square meters, down 235%, up 3488%；The transaction premium rate is 34%, up 09pct。Thereinto.
The first, second and third lines accounted for the proportion of the construction area respectively8%, down 5 from the previous month6pct, liter 59pct, down 04pct。
Capital market monitoring: 1) Real estate bonds: 116 domestic real estate bonds were issued this week400 million yuan, an increase of 63400 million yuan, no overseas bond issuance;The interest rate of key real estate enterprises is 262-4.3%, the comparable issuance rate has risen and decreased compared with the previous time. 2) Real estate stocks: The real estate sector fell 37%, underperforming the CSI 300 (-2.).4%）；The current real estate sector PE (TTM) is 1329 times, and the valuation is at 82 in the last five years98% quantile. This week, the top three net northbound inflows of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect were Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Gemdale Group and Poly Development, and the top three southbound net inflows were Vanke, Country Garden and China Jinmao.
Risk Warning: 1) The property market recovery is less than expected risk;2) The risk of the fermentation of liquidity problems and the chain reaction exceeding expectations of individual real estate enterprises;3) The risk of short-term fluctuations in the industry exceeding expectations.
Related company: Ping An**.