The real estate market needs a 3-5 year adjustment period.
Wang Shi, founder of Vanke, said when talking about the real estate trend. In his opinion, our real estate adjustment has just begun, and it is impossible to expect that it will be good next year. There will be thunderstorms and defaults on debt, but the timely change in policy indicates that we will not adjust for as long as other countries do.
As early as the 2018 Vanke annual meeting, Wang Shi once shouted the slogan of "live, live long, live well", at that time, real estate was in full swing, and the overall scale was still rising.
But few people remember that he also reminded him to "live long and live well", and the number of real estate companies with sales of more than 100 billion yuan has dropped from 35 in 2021 to 16 today. The number of halves, fully proves that the real estate industry in the past two years is miserable, and now the real estate companies are most looking forward to living longer, as for living well, it is not a matter for them to consider for the time being.
Why is the change so fast in two years?There are many reasons for this, but my view remains the same, and the fundamentals of the current property market have been lost. A real estate enterprise financing has not improved, and CRIC released the cumulative financing data of 80 typical real estate companies in the first 11 months, a year-on-year decrease of 3424%。Although the monthly financing scale rebounded in November, it was still the second lowest since 2020. The enthusiasm for starting construction has also continued to weaken, and the growth rate of real estate investment has not returned to positive since it turned negative in April last year.
Second, the purchasing power of the society is weakened, resulting in the first adjustment. This year, the real estate has been regulated and controlled 930 times, and policy dividends have been continuously released in various places, but why is the data getting worse and worse?In the final analysis, the core that determines the future trend of the property market is the population. If it is linked to income, the degree of housing price bubble is still obvious, and the marriage rate and birth rate have declined, directly impacting the demand for school district housing and marriage housing.
There are no eggs under the nest, and the housing prices in 70 cities in November are not in one city compared with the previous month, and 69 cities are in **. But what is really terrible is not the house price**, but the transaction volume continues to be sluggish, in the first 11 months, the sales area of commercial housing is only 74% of last year, and the scale of real estate sales may be further under the low base of the whole year.
Third, the debt ratio of real estate enterprises is high. In the last round of real estate bull market, real estate companies frantically borrowed to expand, and now they owe a lot of debt, which makes many companies breathless, Evergrande did not hold on, Sunac and Country Garden are struggling to survive, and Vanke is not having a good time. In order to avoid debt default and credit downgrade, a number of large-scale real estate companies have accelerated the sale of assets since November, and recently OCT and Wanda have been disposing of assets to return to blood.
That's the dilemma at hand.
But everyone naturally boils down the problem to cash flow, and they all think that as long as the funds are released, it will be fine. Therefore, we continue to promote blood transfusion to real estate companies, and this year, the official is still constantly releasing warmth, requiring equal treatment of real estate enterprise financing, but the effect is still unsatisfactory. Why?
There is only one reason for all this, and the crux of the problem is not this.
You must know that the purpose of blood transfusion to real estate companies is to restore hematopoietic ability, but at present, real estate companies are facing financing difficulties, debt repayment pressure, and house selling pressure, and it can be said that their own hematopoietic function has been lost.
In this context, real estate companies have no money, and they are not expected to take land, and in almost a year, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights has fallen by 179%。In terms of breakdown, there are still nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies in sales that have not taken land.
To solve a problem, we must first recognize the problem and know what the essence of the problem is. In a word, it is too difficult to rebuild confidence in the property market, and there is no quick-fix medicine at all. Personally, I think that it is imperative to save the property market and first open up two "blocking points".
One is the residents' money bags. In fact, the root cause of not buying a house is lack of money, and everything else is a secondary reason. Therefore, it is imperative to improve the employment environment and increase tax cuts and fee reductions to open up the confidence of property buyers.
Fortunately, the market has begun to allow real estate companies to sell their homes at lower prices, and it is still a good idea to reduce costs by reducing prices and destocking. Looking at the entire housing market, although there are still cities that prevent real estate companies from selling houses at a large price, real estate companies will also try their best to give discounts. Recently, Nanjing and Suzhou have successively opened the news of the house price drop limit, which can be seen that it is not possible to block the price reduction of real estate companies at present, and the same is true for protecting the people's money bags.
The second is to quickly solve the unfinished building and promote the delivery of the building. In the past two years, the real estate companies have accelerated the thunderstorm, and the most tired are the buyers, because this will increase the probability of buying unfinished buildings, which not only exhausts everyone's last enthusiasm for buying and investing in houses, but also erodes the credibility of the place
Especially in the market recession, financing is trapped, past debts to be repaid, for real estate companies, to ensure the delivery of the building is a task that has to be completed, and will be discredited if it is not completed, so the real estate companies to demolish the east wall to make up the west wall, but also to ensure the completion of this important task. Again, if sales are not active, hard support will not be able to persevere.
Fang said that the key to the problem is not only to work the policy side, relying on the relaxation of purchase restrictions, mortgage reduction, interest rate reduction and other means The final result will not be too ideal, because in the eyes of ordinary people, the bailout is abstract, and everyone's more intuitive feeling is whether anyone buys the house, whether it is worth spending half a lifetime of savings to buy a house, whether the money to buy a house is enough to fill the stomach, etc., in short, whether the people are willing to pay for consumption, how is it not determined by the money and confidence in their pockets.
The ** used in this article is from the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete. The article is the original of "Daily Room Talk", plagiarism is strictly prohibited, and it must be studied deeply. (Written by: The Hidden Man of the Property Market).