Yesterday, if you accidentally shorted lithium carbonate, you may be a little depressed, before 2:30 o'clock were calm and weak**, as a result** a few minutes ago strong rise, except for the 01 contract collective closure of the limit.
Recently, lithium carbonate has experienced a continuous fall limit, then three consecutive limits, and then a fall limit, and today it is a daily limit. This kind of analysis of fundamentals no longer makes any sense.
Analyzing fundamentals and analyzing various market news is far less enjoyable than throwing a sieve to choose the size. If you open a 10% leverage, a limit or limit has already been liquidated, and the recent continuous ups and downs mean that many accounts have been worn out and have to lose the company's money. Therefore, this period is the busiest time of the year for the company's risk control.
Since the listing of lithium carbonate in July, a total of 30 million lots have been traded in 98 trading days, calculated according to 250 trading days a year, the trading volume is about 77 million, and the handling fee is about 7 according to the handling fee of about 10 yuan700 million, which means that about 400 accounts with a size of 500,000 will disappear in the past month and a half.
In the market, there are not many such stories in the past, and they will continue to happen in the future. Many investors who have been in the industry for a long time may still remember the night of Double 11 in 2016, and many people will lose their heads overnight because of the skyrocketing.
At the opening of the night, the main black contract was full of **, and the bulls were crushing, and coking coal, iron ore, and Shanghai copper rose to the limit. At around 9:40, the market began to fall sharply, and many contracts instantly hit the fall limit, staging a collective sky floor. The extremely short time to change the disk, many people can't react.
The most extreme is Zheng Mian, with a maximum amplitude of 2230 points, which is equivalent to a fluctuation of 11,150 yuan per hand, and at that time, the cotton margin was less than 4,000 yuan. In 2016, the big ** market staged on Double 11 showed the crazy greed and fear of human nature to the extreme.
And in 2020, the market is also very extreme. **TD fell three times in a row, the premium appeared -160, and the exchange suspended trading for one day. The crash that fell from $12 to -40 overnight. The investors of Zhongyoubao not only lost millions of principals, but even lost hundreds of thousands of yuan to the bank.
Cold truth
In 2022, the domestic ** trading volume will be 535 trillion yuan, and the handling fee will be about 70 billion yuan, of which 150 ** companies will have a fee income of more than 24 billion yuan, and the four major ** exchanges will have an income of more than 40 billion yuan. If calculated according to the medium-sized accounts of about 500,000, there will be about 140,000 accounts that disappear every year in the entire ** market. And that's not even counting the money made by investment institutions or industrial capital.
The 500,000-level accounts that have disappeared from the market in the past two decades** are conservatively estimated at 2 million. As of 2023, there will be more than 10 million market accounts and about 3 million active accounts. Many years ago, there was a research report in the Chicago** market that found that 95% of accounts have a lifetime of only about six months.
In fact, these cold data doom the vast majority of people to be unable to succeed in their lifetime, and it doesn't hurt to lose a little money in a light position, but human nature is greedy, and many people ruin their lives because of **, and even ruin the whole family.
It takes a long time for a person to learn from all his mistakes. They say that there are two sides to everything. However, in the ** market, there is only one side there, not the bull side, or the bear side, but the right side.
For friends who have never done **, or who are still on the verge of losing money, I strongly advise you not to participate**. It is possible to recover past losses, but it is more likely to expand losses and fall into the middle of it!
Never trust some **propaganda of all kinds** great gods,The successful deeds of Ge Weidong, Ye Qingjun, Fu Haitang, Lin Guangmao, Wu Xing and others are only one in a million probabilities. This market will always be a success, the past, the present, the future, ancient and modern, Chinese and foreign, no exception!
It is difficult for ordinary people to judge the market, and they are often willing to listen to the views of the masters and the major financial reports. However, just because you have a "guru" in your name doesn't mean you're a master. Moreover, even true masters who have had brilliant achievements may have already returned to the field, regardless of the market, but only occasionally come out to say a few words. In fact, it is better to listen to anyone than to listen to yourself, improve your thinking ability, logical thinking, form your own judgment ability, and listen to it clearly, and do not blindly follow anyone, even if it is a real master.
What exactly is a transaction?
Before entering the market, you must first figure out what you are trading, and the risk is in the **. This is the most critical first lesson, the starting point of all the questions, and the rest of the skills and knowledge, are secondary.
If you don't know the risk and enter the market rashly, it is gambling, or even gambling. Warren Buffett said it well, if you've been at the table for a long time and don't know who the fool is, you're the fool. The market is like heaven, and God helps those who help themselves, but the market is very cruel and ruthless to people who don't know what they are doing.
Since the first days of speculative trading, countless people have hoped to gain wealth by chasing the ups and downs. Speculation itself is a way to obtain benefits through the future market direction, layout in advance. However, the very phrase "chasing the rise and killing the fall" indicates that the direction is determined according to history. If history continues, it is okay to chase up and down. If history does not continue and the trend turns, then chasing up and down is contrarian.
If there is no trend, only random fluctuations, then following the recent market direction can make a mistake at any time. As a result, it is necessary to constantly stop losses, keep participating, and repeatedly consume capital. If it is only 1% of the ** participation, even if it makes money, it will not have much impact on the entire portfolio. And if ** is too big, but you add to your position at the wrong moment, the loss will be large.
Livermore's most famous insight is that his secret to making a lot of money is to stick to and wait, patiently wait for all kinds of conditions to mature before **, and it will come to fruition, and hit the soul with one blow. This is actually trading based on the risk-reward ratio, and it is also the secret of successful speculation. What he was waiting for was an excellent risk-reward ratio.
Only when the conditions are ripe will there be an excellent risk-reward ratio, and it will be worth the heavy investment. If you lack patience, do not wait for the best possible risk-reward ratio, enter and exit frequently, and trade repeatedly, you can only lose money in the cruel speculative game and be eliminated. For anyone, the two ends of a trend are the most dangerous and costly. Don't earn the last copper plate, don't earn the first copper plate, from a pioneer to a martyr!