Deep differentiation has become the most typical feature of the current property market.
CRIC data shows that in 2023, the transaction area and transaction value of new homes in Baicheng will decrease by 10% and 5% year-on-year, respectively.
Importantly, not every city saw a downturn in new home transactions last year.
Under the weak market repair pattern, there are obvious differences in trends between cities. There are cities where the transaction area of new houses has decreased by 20%, such as Nanjing and Suzhou, and there are also cities where the transaction area of new houses has increased by more than 20%, such as Tianjin and Zhengzhou.
In addition, from the perspective of new housing transaction value, there are still half of the cities with positive transaction value year-on-year, and the transaction value of new houses in Xi'an, Tianjin and Zhengzhou increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
This article focuses on some of the cities that have performed well, and it is these cities that have added a rare confidence to the bottom-up property market.
In 2023, the transaction scale of commercial housing in 100 cities across the country will decline at a low level and continue to build a bottom**.
In terms of specific data, in 2023, new commercial residences will be built in 100 citiesThe transaction area is 2800 million square meters, down 10% year-on-year；New commercial housingThe transaction amount is 58 trillion yuan, down 5% year-on-year
Looking at the changes in the transaction volume of the Baicheng property market in recent years, it has maintained a high and slight increase trend from 2019 to 2021, and the transaction scale of commercial housing in Baicheng has reached a new high in 2021, with the sales amount reaching 95 trillion yuan. Since the second half of 2021, ** has begun to "take a sharp turn", and the downturn will continue to 2022, when the transaction area and transaction value of commercial residential buildings in Baicheng fell by more than 30%.
Entering 2023, the market will usher in two rounds of impulsive recovery, but the overall recovery is not sustainable enough.
Judging from the monthly trend, the overall trend shows a trend of high and low before and after stability.
In 2023, there will be two rounds of "pulse" recovery in the property marketFirst of all, from February to April 2023, due to the lifting of the epidemic and policy adjustments, a wave of rigid and rigid demand was released, of which 41.99 million square meters of new houses were traded in March, a new high in a single month in the past two yearsThen, from September to October, with the implementation of policies such as recognising houses and not recognising loans, and loosening purchase restrictions in core first- and second-tier cities, the market ushered in another round of short-term recovery.
In fact, the monthly transaction data is not low compared with the monthly in 2022, but it is slightly "sluggish" against the backdrop of the two rounds of "impulsive" recovery in the market.
In the case of a decline in the scale of new housing transactions in 100 citiesNot every city is on the downside.
Let's take a look at the transaction area of new houses firstAmong the top 20 cities in terms of new housing transaction area in 2023, 11 cities will be year-on-year** and 9 cities will be year-on-year**The number of cities is 2 more than that of cities, and the top 5 cities in terms of transaction area are Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan and Tianjin.
In 2023, the highest transaction area of new homes will be in ChengduThe annual transaction area reached 18.78 million square meters, an increase of 3% year-on-year. It is worth noting thatThe transaction area of the top 5 cities exceeded 10 million square meters.
Among the top 20 cities in terms of transaction areaThe city with the highest increase was Zhengzhou, with a year-on-year increase of **32%. In addition, Tianjin, which ranked second, also rose by 22%. The rankings of the two cities have improved by 6 and 2 places respectively compared to 2022. In addition,The city with the largest decline in transaction area was Suzhou, which fell by 22% year-on-year, Nanjing, Shenyang transaction area also fell by more than 20%.
The top 20 cities in terms of new home transaction value were mixed, with 10 cities both year-on-year and **Among them, the top 10 cities in terms of transaction value rose by 7 and fell by 3, and the top 11-20 rose by 3 and fell by 7.
The city with the highest value of new home transactions in 2023 is ShanghaiThe annual turnover reached 609.1 billion yuan, and the turnover was one more "Xi'an" than Hangzhou, which ranked second.
It is worth noting thatIn 2023, 10 of the top 20 cities in terms of new housing transaction value will turn positive year-on-yearIn 2022, only one city in Shanghai will have a positive year-on-year transaction value.
Among the top 20 cities, Xi'an, with the highest year-on-year increase in transaction value, was **26% year-on-year, Tianjin and Zhengzhou followed, and among the cities with a turnover of **% of the transaction value**, Changsha, Hefei, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Jinan and Shanghai all fell within 10%. Nanjing** has the largest amplitude, the annual turnover amount** increased by 26%.
There are obvious differences in the trend of the cityBeijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'anThe heat is at the top.
Judging from the changes in the average de-conversion rate of projects in key cities across the country in 2023, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'anThe decontamination rate is over 55%.
This data is not easy. It is important to know that the average de-escalation rate of the top 20 cities in key monitoring cities is only 42%. There are 11 cities that exceed the average, and there are still 6 cities with a decontamination rate of less than 30%.
In terms of specific cities,Beijing projects have the highest average de-listing rate at 71%. Shanghai came in second, the average de-listing rate of the project is 62%.Chengdu thirdThe average de-listing rate of the project has also reached 60%. Hangzhou and Xi'an followed, and the average de-listing rate of the project was %.
It is worth noting that under the weak repair pattern of the market, the heat in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other countries has declined, and if there is no favorable policy in the future, the transaction may face a phased bottleneck.
The market will continue to bottom out in 2024.
In the short term, the overall volume of Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, etc., which is relatively hot in the market, is expected to stabilize or increase slightly, and affected by this, the transaction heat of hot cities is expected to continue, and the overall transaction scale will remain stable.
It is worth noting that even if there are hot cities that are improving, there are still persistent deficiencies, and if Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an and other cities with the highest popularity do not continue to increase their policies, transactions may face phased bottlenecks.
Even hot cities still expect moderate policies to "escort" to maintain hard-won market confidence.
*: Ding Zuyu commented on the property market.
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Article**: Ding Zuyu commented on the property market