In the past period, the domestic property market has been in a downturn, and the introduction of various rescue policies has not produced a significant boost. The main reasons are as follows:
First of all, there is already an oversupply of houses in the country. According to statistics, our country has 1200 million vacant houses, enough to meet the housing needs of 300 million to 400 million people. This data shows that there is a surplus of domestic real estate, not a lack of supply. In addition, in the housing boom over the past 20 years, 96% of households already own 1 home, 41 of them5% of households own 2 or more dwellings. Therefore, as the country promotes the return of the real estate market to residential attributes, there will be less and less rigid demand in the future.
Second, people's incomes cannot support high housing prices. Despite the continuous release of favorable policy news, due to the impact of the epidemic, many people's incomes have decreased or even lost their jobs, and their ability to buy houses has been greatly weakened, making it difficult to support the current high housing prices. In addition, after the baptism of the epidemic, people are cautious about future income growth and look at the issue of buying houses more rationally. Most families decide whether or not to buy a home based on the actual situation.
Thirdly, the people have little confidence in buying a house. Under the influence of the debt default of leading real estate companies such as Evergrande Real Estate and Country Garden, as well as the unfinished building incident, many potential home buyers are no longer confident in buying a house and have a wait-and-see attitude. There are concerns that there may be a risk of unfinished properties after buying off-the-plan properties. At the same time, the three red line policies launched by the central bank, as well as the continued sluggish sales of real estate enterprises and the shortage of capital chains, have led to the inability to guarantee the quality of newly built commercial housing. As a result, many people are less enthusiastic about buying a home.
In general, the downturn in the domestic property market is mainly caused by factors such as oversupply, weakening purchasing power, and lack of confidence in buying homes. In this regard, ** through the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction of Affordable Housing", it is clear that the planning and development of affordable housing will be accelerated, and it is planned to launch 6 million units of affordable housing in the next five years to meet the needs of low-income groups. This is seen as a signal that a new round of real estate reform is coming.
The new round of housing reform is fundamentally different from the first housing reform in 1998. The housing reform in 1998 shifted the real estate market from a distribution system to a market-oriented one, but neglected to protect low-income groups. The purpose of this housing reform is to make up for the "shortcomings" left by the first housing reform, not only to promote the full marketization of the existing property market, but also to meet the basic housing needs of low-income groups.
According to the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction of Affordable Housing", the new round of housing reform will divide the real estate market into two parts: 40% is the commercial housing market, and the housing price is determined by the market, and no longer intervenes;The other 60% is the affordable housing market, which is lower than the surrounding commercial housing. But low-income people who have bought affordable housing will not be able to trade freely in the market. This means that a large part of the demand of the commercial housing market in the future will be diverted by the affordable housing market.
In addition, the "Guiding Opinions" also clearly pointed out that the concept of speculation in the past has been abandoned, and the new round of real estate market will gradually return to residential attributes. **Efforts will be made to promote the planning and construction of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of low-income groups. The pilot cities include 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Wuhan and Dongguan. This will bring the real estate, which was originally out of control in the market, back to the constraints of the market mechanism and avoid further expansion of the bubble.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the new round of housing reform will not make the current housing prices large again, but will help accelerate the process of de-investment in the commercial housing market. The focus of this round of housing reform is to meet the basic housing needs of low-income groups and promote the return of the real estate market to residential attributes. Buyers' worries about future house price surges are unwarranted, and under the new policy, the real estate market will stabilize and gradually return to residential properties.
Regarding the upcoming new round of housing reform, economist Ma Guangyuan gave his views in two sentences: "The era of real estate as the best investment product in China is over" and "the future house will gradually return to residential attributes". These two sentences accurately point out the current situation of the property market and the future development trend.
With the development of the domestic real estate market, people's investment expectations for home purchases have changed. Over the past few decades, real estate has been seen as the best investment, and many people have made good profits by flipping houses. However, the current property market environment has changed, and the misalignment of supply and demand has made property investment less reliable. Investors need to be aware that real estate is not an eternal way to increase value, and the real estate market will gradually return to residential attributes rather than pure investment attributes in the future.
In the new round of housing reform, the construction of affordable housing will be accelerated to meet the basic housing needs of low-income groups. This will help alleviate the housing plight of low-income people and improve social fairness and stability. At the same time, separating the commercial housing market from the affordable housing market will help reduce the risk of overinvestment and bubbles.
For home buyers, they need to choose the way to buy a property according to their actual situation and needs. Especially for low-income groups, affordable housing will provide a relatively suitable housing option. For some people who have the need to buy a house and have the ability to buy a house, choosing a suitable commercial house is also a reasonable choice.
In general, the arrival of a new round of housing reform is of positive significance for the stabilization of the real estate market and the return to residential attributes. **The policy orientation will focus more on meeting the basic housing needs of low-income groups, and home buyers will also look at real estate investment more rationally. Therefore, the real estate market will show a more stable and healthy development trend in the future.