Since the beginning of 2023, the domestic real estate market has successively implemented a series of rescue policies, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions, the relaxation of loan restrictions, and the reduction of loansMortgage interest ratesetc., however, these favorable policies forproperty marketThe boosting effect is not obvious. Actually, domesticproperty marketThere has been a trend of "both volume and price falling". The reason for this, on the one hand, is domesticPropertyThere is already an oversupply of existing 1200 million vacant houses are enough to meet the housing needs of 3-400 million people;On the other hand, the income of ordinary people cannot support itHigh house pricesAfter the epidemic, many families have reduced their income or lost their jobsBuying a houseCapabilities are severely weakened;In addition, in recent yearsReal estate enterprisesDebt default andUnfinished buildingevents, so thatBuying a houseLack of confidence. In order to solve these problems, the Standing Committee issued the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction of Affordable Housing", and plans to launch 6 million units of affordable housing in the next five years to meet the needs of low-income groups. Some people are worried that the arrival of a new round of housing reform will causeRoom ratesSoaring, thoughEconomyScientistsMa Guangyuanpointed out that "the era of real estate as the best investment in China is over", and the future real estate market willGradual regressionResidential attributes, this round of housing reform is different from the first housing reform in 1998, the purpose is to make up for the shortcomings of the original housing reform. It is foreseeable that a new round of housing reform will be acceleratedCommercial housingThe process of de-bubble in the market.
Domesticproperty marketIn the past few years, there has been a phenomenon of "both volume and price falling". The data shows that from January to November this year, the whole countryCommercial housingThe sales area decreased by 23 percent year-on-year3%, sales decreased by 26 year-on-year6%。At the same time, the average price of the second-hand residential market in 100 key cities has declined for 9 consecutive months, and the range is still expanding. So, what are the reasons for the poor effect of favorable domestic policies?
1.There is an oversupply of domestic houses: the number of surplus ** has exceeded the demand. According to statistics, our country has 1200 million vacant houses can meet the housing needs of 3-400 million people. This means that the domestic real estate market is already facing a serious problem of surplus. In addition, according to the data, after more than 20 yearsproperty marketBoom, 96% of households already own 1 home, 41 of them5% of households even own more than two homes. As the real estate market shifts to residential properties, there will be less and less real rigid demand.
2.Ordinary peopleBuying a houseCapacity constraints: Despite a series of favorable policies, people's incomes have not been able to support the current high levelsRoom rates。After the epidemic, many families have reduced their income or even lost their jobsBuying a houseCapabilities are severely weakened;In addition, people are becoming more cautious about their expectations for future revenue growth, rightBuying a houseenthusiasm has also been greatly reduced. Therefore, many families will decide whether to buy or not according to their own situationProperty
Buying a houseLack of confidence: in recent years,Evergrande Real EstateCountry Gardenand other headsReal estate enterprisesdefaulted on its debts as wellUnfinished buildingThe problem makes it potentialBuying a houseYesBuying a houseThe market loses confidence. They are worried that they will also encounter it after buying off-the-planUnfinished buildingThe dilemma. In addition, due to the central bank's three-line policy as wellReal estate enterprisesSales are sluggishReal estate enterprisesUniversally facedFunding chainNervous problems, caused by the new constructionCommercial housingQuality is difficult to guarantee. These factors have led to:Buying a houseLack of confidence.
Face the presentproperty marketThe Standing Committee adopted and issued the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction of Affordable Housing", and plans to launch 6 million units of affordable housing in the next five years to meet the needs of low-income groups. This move is seen as the arrival of a new round of housing reform, which has attracted people's attention and speculation.
1.The new round of housing reform is different from the first housing reform:EconomyScientistsMa GuangyuanIt is pointed out that this round of housing reform is fundamentally different from the first housing reform in 1998. "The era of real estate as the best investment in China is over", the real estate market willGradual regressionto residential properties. Unlike the first housing reform, which pushed real estate from the distribution system to the market, the purpose of this round of housing reform is to make up for the shortcomings left by the first housing reform and to replace the existing onesproperty marketIt is fully market-oriented and meets the basic housing needs of low-income groups.
2.Market distribution of the new round of housing reform: According to the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction of Affordable Housing", the new round of housing reform will be piloted in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million, including:Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities, as well as Chengdu, Wuhan,Dongguanand other second-tier cities.
3.Specific measures for the new round of housing reform: The new round of housing reform will divide the real estate market into two large parts: 40% of the market share is used forCommercial housingmarket,Room ratesIt is up to the market to decide that ** will not intervene again;The other 60% is for the affordable housing market. The ** of affordable housing will be lower than the surrounding areaCommercial housing**, but after purchasing affordable housing, low-income groups will no longer be able to trade in the market. This means, the futureCommercial housingA large part of the market demand will shift to the affordable housing market. Eventually,Commercial housingThe market will gradually remove the investment attribute and return to the residential attribute. Therefore, the new round of housing reform will not only not lead to the current **Room ratesIt will continue to rise sharply and will accelerate to a large extentCommercial housingThe process of de-bubble in the market.
Currently domesticproperty marketThere has been a phenomenon of "both volume and price falling", resulting in the poor effect of favorable policies. The reason for this is that on the one hand, there is an oversupply of domestic houses, and on the other hand, the common peopleBuying a houseLimited capacity andBuying a houseLack of confidence. In order to solve these problems, the Standing Committee issued the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction of Affordable Housing", and plans to launch 6 million affordable housing units in the next five years. This is considered to be the arrival of a new round of housing reform, which will accelerateCommercial housingThe process of de-bubble in the market. EconomyScientistsMa GuangyuanIt is pointed out that the era of real estate as the best investment product in China has ended, and the future real estate market willGradual regressionResidential properties. Therefore, for the futureRoom ratesFears of a surge are unwarranted.