According to the German news channel on December 11, economists at Munich Re Group, the world's largest reinsurance company, do not expect inflation in the eurozone to fall to the pre-pandemic level for a long time, that is, below 2%. Michael Menhart, the company's chief economist, said: "There is little indication at this time that we will again see the same low inflation rate as we were before the pandemic in the medium term. ”
He believes that from 2025 to 2030, inflation could reach an average annual rate of around 3%. The ECB is aiming for inflation to reach 2% in the medium term. "It's not a highly unlikely scenario," Menhardt said. In my opinion, the probability of its occurrence is around 30%. ”
Over the past 40 years, globalization, demographics, digitalization and deregulation have helped tame inflation, he said. However, "some of these factors may now be reversing". He said that globalization has been clearly weakened in light of geopolitical conflicts, especially between China and the United States. "If this continues, then the cost advantage of the global division of labor is likely to be smaller, and the upward pressure on many commodities will increase."
Menhardt argues that the aging of Western societies could lead to a persistent shortage of labor, which in turn would drive wages**The trend towards greater regulation will also push inflation higher;In addition, decarbonisation and climate-friendly transformation of the economy will also drive up inflation at first. (Compiled by Wang Qing).