Recently, the stock prices of listed companies in the liquor sector have been in a state of collapse, and liquor was once the last stubborn.
Baijiu is the jewel in the crown of the big white horse. In the 2018-2021 big white horse bull market, liquor stocks are absolute stars, among which there is ** brother Moutai, with a market value of more than 2 trillion yuan.
The joke circulating at that time was that no matter what macroeconomic news came out, the hottest comment was just four words: Good for Moutai!
After the collapse of the white horse stocks, although the liquor is also the best, the performance is still very strong, with an average decline of about 35%, while the other big white horses have been cut in half. For example, China Duty Free fell from 400 yuan to 77 yuan.
But in the past two days, liquor stocks have accelerated**. An important reason is that the price increase has failed. Previously, Moutai announced a 20% price increase, and the stock price once soared 8%, but now it has erased all the gains. At that time, it was said that Luzhou Laojiao was also preparing to increase its price, and the stock price was also ** for a time.
However, more than a month has passed, and it seems that not only has the price increase failed, but also the price has to be reduced. Luzhou Laojiao said last week that it would reduce the ** to dealers, and the stock price collapsed directly**, which also led to the collapse of the entire liquor sector.
Kweichow Moutai, as a luxury product with a retail price of 250% of the ex-factory price, does not seem to have reached the 20% price increase target, at least not yet.
And now, it is rumored that Wuliangye is also preparing to reduce production and ensure **. The top three liquors are the vane of the entire plate, and if they do this, the middle and low-end liquor behind them will be even more sad.
In addition, there is a long-standing story that says that young people don't drink baijiu anymore. This is not unfounded, and the production of baijiu is indeed declining, down by about half in the past 10 years.
However, in the past 10 years, there have been 7 years, the liquor sector is the best, although there are factors of group speculation, but these liquor listed companies, people's sales and profits, is really growing, and the growth is not small, more than 10 times the increase.
I'm not defending baijiu, after all, I don't like baijiu, and I've written a lot of articles criticizing the so-called liquor culture. However, the logic that young people do not drink liquor has little impact on the stock price.
This may be a process of quantitative change to qualitative change--- although the output of liquor has declined, but the Matthew effect is obvious, and the sales of this part of the listed company are increasing, and the sales are also firm. It is possible that as the market shrinks further, eventually the entire market will enter a long period.
However, judging from foreign experience, there are also fewer and fewer young people drinking spirits, but the stock prices of companies selling alcohol are also constantly rising. In the future, alcohol may become more and more luxurious.
Finally, historically, the fall of liquor is often the last round of decline of the big white horse. I remember that in 2016, someone asked a question in Zhihu, wanting a ** that crossed the bull and bear, and I gave Moutai and Yunnan Baiyao, when Moutai's stock price was less than 200 yuan. And in 2012, my relatives asked me the same question, and my answer was the same Moutai.
However, Moutai is not cheap now, but looking at it for more than a year, Moutai is still strong.