Written by |Planet.
*|Bedo Finance.
According to the "Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023" released by the Bank of China Research Institute, the global economy has shown a weak recovery trend since the beginning of this year.
On this basis, most participants in the banking industry have chosen to flexibly adjust their strategies, maintain a stable operation situation, and seek a balance between "quantity, price, quality and efficiency" in steady development. However, the performance of Minsheng Bank (SH:600016, HK:01988) is hardly optimistic.
On the whole, Minsheng Bank's performance in the first three quarters was quite weak, not only did revenue and profit both plummet, but several indicators to measure the health of its assets were also unsatisfactory. In addition, Minsheng Bank is also facing credit risk pressure in the real estate sector, and there are frequent problems in compliance management.
This can't help but make people wonder, what happened to the "small light" of the spring breeze in the past?
In the first three quarters of 2023, Minsheng Bank's revenue was 10630.4 billion yuan, down 211%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 3357.7 billion yuan, down 060%；The net profit after deducting non-profits was 3355.6 billion yuan, down 062%, the revenue side and the profit side are in a downward trend.
Compared with the other 8 joint-stock banks in the A-share market, Minsheng Bank's revenue scale is at the middle and lower levels, only higher than Huaxia Bank's 7710.9 billion yuan and 496 of Zheshang Bank9 billion yuan. In terms of revenue growth rate, except for Zheshang Bank, it achieved 4In addition to the 13% growth, the income of the remaining eight banks all declined to varying degrees.
However, at the same time, Minsheng Bank is also one of the few banks among the nine listed joint-stock banks to experience a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company. According to Bedo Finance, the downward trend of Minsheng Bank's net profit attributable to the parent company in recent years is quite obvious, of which the year-on-year decrease in 2020 is 3625%, which can be called a "cliff type"** In 2021 and 2022, it will increase slightly by 021% and 258%。
In the third quarter alone, Minsheng Bank achieved revenue of 3476.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107%；Net profit attributable to the parent company is 980 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 722%；The net profit after deducting non-profits was 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 830%。At the end of the third quarter, the bank's total assets stood at 752 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 544%, a single-season performance can be called "passing".
Looking at the net interest margin and net interest margin, which are key indicators to measure the profitability of banks, in the first three quarters of 2023, Minsheng Bank's net interest margin and net interest margin were 140% and 148%, down 0. from the same period in 202213 and 014 percentage points. Not only that, but the bank's weighted average return on equity also decreased by 044 percentage points.
Beduo Finance found that the decline in the profitability of Minsheng Bank appeared as early as four years ago. The bank's net interest margin increased from 2.2 in 201911% slipped to 160%, net interest margin increased from 187% fell to 1. in 202251%, a drop of more than 20% at one point.
According to the Implementation Measures for Qualified Prudential Assessment (2023 Revision) issued by the self-regulatory mechanism for market interest rate pricing on April 10, the "red line" for the regulator's rating of banks' net interest margins is 18%, down from 18% will be deducted points. Based on this calculation, Minsheng Bank's net interest margin has been below the threshold for nearly two years.
As of the end of the third quarter, Minsheng Bank's capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio were respectively. 71% and 905%, down from the end of 2022. 20 and 012 percentage points, or will face certain capital replenishment pressure in the future.
Not only that, Minsheng Bank also has hidden concerns in terms of asset quality and risk compensation. At the end of the reporting period, the bank's non-performing loan ratio was 155%, although it is 013 percentage points, but it is at a high level among the 9 listed joint-stock banks, second only to Huaxia Bank's 172%。
At the same time, Minsheng Bank's provision coverage ratio increased from 142 at the end of 202249% to 14921%, although it is up 672 percentage points, but the bank is the only bank among the listed joint-stock banks whose provision coverage ratio is below the "warning line" of 150%, and the health of its assets is not good.
Bedo Finance understands that behind the downward pressure on the asset quality of Minsheng Bank is the pressure on the risk of the real estate industry. The bank's non-performing loan ratio from the real estate sector increased from 0.0 at the end of 202069% rose to 266%, and further increased to 428%。
Although Minsheng Bank did not disclose its high-risk real estate customers in detail, Citi said in a 2021 research report that Minsheng Bank's risk exposure to domestic high-risk real estate developers was about 130 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of Tier 1 capital, the highest proportion among large domestic banks.
It should be pointed out that Minsheng Bank's real estate problems have even affected its 50 billion yuan convertible bond issuance plan that it has been preparing for many years to a certain extent. According to public information, Minsheng Bank proposed to issue A-share convertible corporate bonds in 2017, and the application was accepted by the CSRC in August 2020.
In the first round of inquiry letters issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in March, five issues were involved: real estate loans, the necessity of large-scale financing, business conditions, compliance conditions, and information of Minsheng Bank. Two months later, Minsheng Bank publicly disclosed a reply of more than 30,000 words.
In the second round of inquiry, in addition to further requiring Minsheng Bank to demonstrate the necessity and reasonableness of large-scale financing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange focused on the bank's regulatory penalty compliance, the specific situation of real estate customers, etc., and required it to list all real estate customers at the end of each period of the reporting period, including debt default, credit rating downgrade, etc.
This time, in the face of the sharp inquiry content of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Minsheng Bank did not continue to reply to the inquiry letter, but chose to take the initiative to stop the 50 billion yuan financing plan and withdraw the application documents.
According to the rating report released by Dagong International on May 24, the main risk of Minsheng Bank comes from the fact that the proportion of equity pledge by some shareholders is still high, and some shareholders have major negative events such as bond extension, and the stability of Minsheng Bank's equity structure and related related loan impairment risks still need attention.
At the beginning of 2023, Minsheng Bank filed a lawsuit against its sixth largest shareholder, Oceanwide Holdings, and its two subsidiaries and actual controllers, Lu Zhiqiang, demanding that Wuhan Center Company repay the loan principal of 397.2 billion yuan, Wuhan ** company repaid the loan principal of 304.6 billion yuan, as well as corresponding interest and penalty interest.
On October 9, the first-instance judgment showed that Wuhan ** Company repaid the loan principal of 30 to the Beijing branch of Minsheng Bank within 10 days from the effective date of the judgment4.6 billion yuan and the corresponding interest, overdue penalty interest, compound interest;Oceanwide Holdings and Lu Zhiqiang shall be jointly and severally liable for the guarantee.
However, with the recent termination of Oceanwide Holdings' pre-reorganization plan by the Beijing No. 1 Intermediate Court, how to fill the financial loophole caused by the "thunderstorm" of shareholders will also become a major problem for Minsheng Bank.
In addition to external equity disputes, Minsheng Bank's internal control management has also been frequented since 2023. According to incomplete statistics, since 2023, the State Financial Supervision and Administration has announced as many as 71 fines involving Minsheng Bank, its branches, and relevant responsible persons, with a fine amount of more than 2200 million yuan, which involves three "tens of millions of yuan fines".
In February this year, the head office of Minsheng Bank was fined 66.7 million yuan, and its branches were fined 23 million yuan, totaling 89.7 million yuan, and confiscated illegal gains due to 14 violations of laws and regulations, such as inaccurate risk classification of micro-enterprise loans, misappropriation of loan funds for small and micro enterprises in the real estate sector, and major loopholes in post-loan management.
On June 21, the Chongqing branch of Minsheng Bank bought out the commercial acceptance bills with fake discounts due to illegal purchases from 2015 to 201610 violations of laws and regulations, such as opening interbank accounts for bill transactions in violation of regulations, were fined 5967 by the Chongqing Supervision Bureau of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission80,000 yuan, and the relevant staff were also punished.
Two months later, Minsheng Bank evaded the supervision of entrusted loans and illegally used the entrusted debt investment business to raise funds from enterprisesThe State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration fined its head office 44.3 million yuan and its branches 3.5 million yuan, totaling 47.8 million yuan.
2023 is the year of the "sustained growth period" in the five-year development plan of Minsheng Bank, but it has been proved that Minsheng Bank is experiencing a cold winter of performance pressure, shareholder "thunderstorms", and frequent fines, and the operating pressure is not insignificant.