Reading guide:The reason why the market in recent days is interesting,We can look at it from two levels,On the one hand, it is the reverse of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks,A-shares for 6 consecutive trading days**,The major indices are almost all new lows,But the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks has been since 12.Since the 11th, there has been a bottom**, and the two are in stark contrast; On the other hand, a few days ago, a sell-side research report attracted market attention, mentioning that the weekly scale net redemption was 06%, many people say that this is a "small composition", but it is not, because we have been talking about it two months ago.
Why now? In fact, it's very simple, remember when the core 50 assets skyrocketed, in 20-21, the outbreak time of the three-year public offering was in the second half of 20 to the first quarter of 21, but the structure of the market was transferred from the core 50 assets to new energy after the Lunar New Year in 21, so we inquired about the relevant data, and the 20-year public offering share was 314 trillion copies, 21 years for 296 trillion copies, so....
Today's major indices have a trend of low acceleration, and they have fallen in the yin, and there is no essential difference between large, medium and small, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 103%, Kechuang 50 fell 12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 141%, GEM fell 136%, CNI 2000 fell 149%, in this state, it seems that it can be described in one sentence: there are no eggs under the nest. But is this so pessimistic, probably not necessarily, but it still needs some observation.
On the time-sharing chart, it can be said that the intraday trend is a downward trend, and it is still above the red disk line after the opening, but it has not been able to return to the red disk line after turning green, 10After 40 minutes, it began to enter a unilateral downward trend, and the time-sharing ** and the time-sharing yellow line went down synchronously, and the time-sharing transaction was actually lower than that in the afternoon, so the selling pressure in the afternoon was amplified and more orderly.
* The large, medium and small of the index are slightly different, because the decline of the time-sharing ** is significantly greater than the yellow line, so it is not as indistinguishable as the Shanghai Index, but ** is indistinguishable, at the same time, the GEM time-sharing trend is directly into the downward trend after the opening, and the end is with obvious selling, so, emotionally speaking, the index level of the entire A** field is resonant, the only pity is that even if this orderly selling in the afternoon is enlarged, it has not been able to see the emergence of the panic disk after all, so it is super ** And it fell short.
There is a saying in today's industry, but with the nature of "small composition", we simply mention it, the market has a saying that refinancing may be canceled, which is actually a good thing for investors, but this thing is bad for brokers, so we see that today's brokerage index unilaterally, walked a bald and barefoot mid-yin line, which is big enough to stimulate the index, since the third quarter of this year, brokerages have been criticized.......
The primary industry is only left with coal and utilities slightly, more than half of the industry that fell by more than 1%, the previous article said that the selling pressure in the afternoon is amplified, which can be explained here, because there are still half of the first-class industries in the morning, but most of them have been adjusted in the afternoon, at the same time, today's bank has played a role in protecting the disk as usual, and the commendable place is that the new PEEK material concept continued yesterday, and some funds are still very strong.
Coal, public utilities, we believe that there are two logics, one is "winter coal and summer electricity", the other is that some news in the early stage of environmental protection continues to ferment, so the certainty of the primary industry is higher, as for the lead, TMT plate dominates, yesterday's ** social service fell rapidly, non-bank led the decline, the previous said that the brokerage has been explained, the concept of the theme, cloud computing, data elements and AI have been adjusted to varying degrees.
Therefore, today's industry ** is almost indistinguishable, it is difficult to say who can be alone, but there is also a little theme effect, but in terms of the entire A shares, in fact, it is already negligible, theoretically, today's decline in addition to the brokerage led **, but also related to the public offering status mentioned at the beginning, so the trend of the day reflects these two negatives, but these two negatives are somewhat negative in our opinion!
Approaching the end of the year, and because of today's weakness, we have conducted some review of this year's structure, and found that the special valuation is the real structure of this year, why do you say so? To cite a few examples, the telecom giants, the three barrels of oil and the big state-owned banks have risen the lowest year-to-date to basically maintain breakeven, the highest has risen by about 40%, and their dividend yields range from three points to five or six points.
Which industry can run such excess returns during the year? I'm afraid that the games in the TMT segment can't be done, and I'll help you review it again, last year's structure was coal, and in the past five years, it was the weakest year outside of this year; The structure for 2021 is new energy; The structure in 2020 is the core 50 assets, and the structure in 2019 is mainly 5G, developing to hard technology (semiconductors), does anyone still remember what the situation was in 2018?
1. The total turnover was 681.8 billion, and the selling pressure was increased in the afternoon.
2. Nearly 4,000 of them, and the money loss effect is slightly stronger.
3. The main capital is 25 billion, and the volume is smashed.
4. The outflow of foreign capital exceeded 1.5 billion, 14The outflow of nearly 3.8 billion before the 27th minute, and then the reflux, note that the outflow mainly occurred on the Shenzhen Stock Connect.
Pay attention to a set of data, southbound capital outflow of 11 billion, domestic capital southbound data fluctuations are a bit big, there is a typical game, the opponent is of course foreign capital, and for the a** field, foreign capital has not moved much recently, but we found that the action of domestic capital is still very large, the main capital compared with yesterday, smashed 17.5 billion more, but the turnover was only amplified by about 20 billion, so other funds are mostly shrinking, but one thing is a pity, there is no panic in the afternoon.
It is worth noting that although several major indices today have fallen out of a new low, but there is no possibility of destroying the daily level bottom divergence, from the trend point of view, if you continue to shrink the amount of yin fall, it will really destroy the structure of the bottom divergence, so technically you need to "put it to death and then live", the two bears have not completed the reflection, so if you can kill the panic plate by inertia on Thursday, take a hammer line with a long lower shadow, then the bottom divergence will be formed, and there will be an opportunity to overfall....
I am Muyi, sharing my cognition, but not as an investment basis, profit and loss are the same, knowledge and action are one!
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