The Artemsk region in eastern Ukraine is a major conflict zone between Russia and Ukraine. Since 2014, the two sides have engaged in a number of fierce exchanges of fire here, resulting in thousands of people. Recently, the large-scale build-up of troops by the Russian army in the western region of Artemsk has aroused great concern from the international community. What is the purpose of the Russian army?How will they go on the offensive?How is their campaign going?
First, let's take a look at the deployment of Russian forces in the western region of Artemsk. According to the open source intelligence of the domestic network, we have obtained the deployment of the Russian army's forces on the Artemsk front. Under the campaign corps, one campaign tactical corps-level unit is deployed in each of the three directions of Bodanivka, Ivanivsk, and Krischivka. The main input forces in each direction are described in detail, and in general they involve five brigades, seven regiments, and eight assault battalions of the 2nd Assault Army. It is estimated that the Russian army has amassed about 77,000 troops around Artemsk, the largest since 2014.
Secondly, let's speculate on the campaign goals of the Russian army. Considering the magnitude of the Russian troop build-up, we believe that the Russian campaign may be aimed not only to clear a few villages in western Artemsk, but also to directly involve the attack on Chasov Yar. Chasov Yar is an important city in Ukraine, located southwest of Artemsk, and is an important stronghold of the Ukrainian army. If the Russian army can capture Chasov Yar, then they will be able to cut off the supply lines of the Ukrainian army, threaten the rear of the Ukrainian army, and even threaten the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv. Compared with previous estimates, the actual strength of the Russian army may already have the conditions for a direct attack on Chasov Yar.
Again, let's analyze the possible scenario of the battle for Chasov Yar. We believe that the Russian army's campaign layout shows their strategic intention, that is, to force the Ukrainian army to mobilize heavy troops in the direction of Chasov Yar by carrying out an oppressive attack, and then use the Russian army's firepower advantage to encircle and annihilate it. Such a tactical approach will damage the Ukrainian army's reorganization and rotation plan, and is expected to further weaken its vital forces. The Russian army may launch an offensive in three directions at the same time, Bodanivka, Ivanivsk, and Krischivka, forming a multifaceted threat to the Ukrainian army, forcing the Ukrainian army to disperse its forces, and then concentrate superior forces to break through the defense line of the Ukrainian army and directly smash Chasov Yar. The Russian army may use its air power and long-range firepower to strike at the positions and rear of the Ukrainian army, destroy its command, communications, logistics and other key facilities, and weaken its ability to resist.
Finally, let's estimate the duration of the battle. We note that according to the situation of the Russian army in the western part of Artemsk and the size of its forces, the strategic campaign of Chasov Yar may last very long, possibly more than half a year. This also means that we will continue to monitor the progress of the Russian army in this direction in the coming months. Although the Russian army has a clear advantage in strength and firepower, the Ukrainian army will not give up Chasov Yar easily, they will put up stubborn resistance, and may even get the support of Western countries. Therefore, the battle for Chasov Yar will be a protracted war, the outcome of which will have a significant impact on the future of Ukraine and the security of Europe.
In short, it is believed that the goal of the Russian army is to capture Chasov Yar and weaken the viable forces of the Ukrainian army through an oppressive offensive, and the Ukrainian army will put up stubborn resistance and prolong the war. In any case, the battle for Chasov Yar has already begun, and the progress of the Russian army in this direction will be closely watched in the next half a year or so.