01 Glacier collapse is beautiful and tragic
The moment the glacier melted and collapsed, accompanied by a dull loud noise, the huge icebergs broke apart and smashed into the sea one after another, stirring up a huge wave ......
This is one of the most spectacular sights in nature.
In recent years, involution has gradually heated up, catalyzing every iceberg in traditional commerce.
The collapse of the commercial complex is staggering, and its melting process is like a frog slowly boiling in warm water: it is on the verge of desperation in desperation.
02 Current status of commercial complexes
The commercial complex was created to meet the all-round experience of consumers.
Its business formats cover department stores, catering, entertainment (cinemas, KTVs, gyms), hotel apartments, office buildings, etc.
Let consumers experience the convenience and comfort of "clothing, food, housing and transportation" one-stop service, and the commercial complex has become a banner of traditional commerce.
However, who would have expected that the dark era of China's economy has quietly arrived......
At the end of 2019, the epidemic broke out in Wuhan!
Since then, the three-year epidemic has begun to rage.
In the past three years, code scanning, lockdown, isolation, stay-at-home, and virus variants have been repeated, and the economy has plummeted.
The economy continues to deteriorate, and a frenzy of bankruptcies is pouring into the market, wantonly slapping people's fragile nerves;
In 2022, 42 commercial complexes across the country announced the closure of stores, including "Isetan, Suning Global Shopping Center, Pacific Department Store, Intime Department Store, New World Department Store......”
In 2023, another 21 department stores across the country will be closed down, including "Aeon, Parkson, Jiebai, Dayang Department Store, Shanghai Bailian", etc.
The old shop, which has stood for decades and has accompanied the growth of a generation, did not even have a chance to surrender when it was destroyed.
Even a commercial giant like "Wangfujing Department Store", which is more than 10 billion yuan a year, cannot escape the fate of collapse.
Wuhan Wangfujing Department Store has announced that it will officially close in February 2024, bidding farewell to the public.
These former business stars are like dead leaves falling in the autumn rain, and they bid farewell to prosperity poignantly.
The glory of memory is no longer out of reach.
Three years later, when the epidemic left, it left behind an involuted economy.
There are fewer and fewer brands of commercial complexes, the consumption threshold is getting lower and lower, but the rents are always high, and this business philosophy makes them even more muddy.
The epidemic has also stripped away the ** of traditional business, look at how embarrassing it is.
03 Behind the Decline
First, the recession has become a heart-wrenching reality
The indicator of people's livelihood economy is not GDP but CPI, because the latter is the true reflection of purchasing power.
In general, a CPI (Consumer Index) rise or fall of between 3% and 6% is considered ideal.
This is a reasonable range that can promote economic growth while maintaining stable prices.
If the increase exceeds the upper limit, the danger of inflation increases, and the purchasing power of the currency depreciation after inflation decreases.
If the decline exceeds the lower bound, it means deflation, indicating a lack of consumption motivation or no ability to consume at all.
The current economic situation is like this, look at a set of data:
According to statistics, taking May 2023 as an example, the CPI decreased by 02%。
illustrates the intensification of deflation in May).
Year-on-year **02%。
It shows that compared with the same period from 2022 to 2023, the phenomenon of deflation has not been significantly improved).
cpi
What are the causes of deflation?Let's look at another set of data:
1.In the first quarter of 2023, the surveyed unemployment rate of the urban population aged 16-24 was as high as 213%, a record high.
2.In the first half of 2022, 460,000 companies went bankrupt and 3.1 million self-employed people were deregistered.
3.200 million people are unemployed as of 2023, 7800 million people are in debt, and 400 million are overdue, which means that less than half of the debtors are repaying their loans. The total debt has exceeded 200 trillion yuan, and the per capita debt is 170,000 yuan.
4.In 2023, China's spring foreign trade orders will drop by 40% overall, of which traditional products will drop by more than 50%, which can be imagined the situation of shipping logistics and manufacturing industry.
5.The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in middle-income families, which accounts for 60% of the total population, is 3950,000 yuan;Between the ages of 6 and 17, families spend about 2 per year on education50,000 yuan, with a monthly average of 2,083 yuan.
The above examples include the economic status of individuals, groups, households, and enterprises, which is also the main cause of deflation.
2. Analysis of the current situation of commercial complexes
industry
state
Grocery
For the older generation of mainstream consumer groups, the rigid needs of life are far greater than the non-essential consumption of goods.
The post-90s and post-00s generations are the original residents who grew up in the Internet, and they are the mainstream consumer groups of the new generation.
They are more inclined to solve all their personal needs through the Internet, and they are more concerned about goods, which is precisely the absolute advantage of e-commerce.
Traditional department stores have been abused into scum...... by e-commerce
Meals. The low threshold of the catering industry in China has caused a lot of competition in the same industry.
This industry has long passed the era of low cost and high profit.
Vicious competition, expensive labor, rising ingredients, and the annual increase in the rent of shopping malls by 5%-20%.
If you don't do activities, you won't have performance, and you won't make money if you have a lot of activities.
You can't sell breakfast before 10 a.m., and you can't sell supper after 10 p.m.
From Monday to Friday, there are more staff than customers, and businesses look forward to the weekend from Monday.
Imagine paying rent for 30 days and earning money for seven or eight days, and you are so anxious that you don't even want to keep your hair on your head.
Cinema. Producers and investors who are still worried about the epidemic have seen a significant reduction in their investment in filmmaking.
Film and television production companies are also declining in their purchases of overseas film rights.
The two have led to a lack of resources for new films and a depression in major theaters.
Moviegoers have switched to online audio-visual platforms, completing the transition from focusing on sensory experience to emphasizing storyline, and it is difficult for these people to return to the theater after that.
As of 2021, China's existing KTVs are less than half of those of seven years ago, and China has made no achievements in the past ten years.
* People seem to be lying flat, without work or action.
The post-90s and post-00s generations are not interested in popular songs from Hong Kong, Taiwan and the mainland, preferring English songs.
There weren't a few songs in the KTV library that they could sing, so they said goodbye.
It's not anyone's fault, it's the end of an era.
Gym. The operating cost of the gym is heavy on assets, and it has to compete with various software for customers.
After the epidemic, people are more inclined to buy their own equipment and fitness, and the offline business of gyms has fallen off a cliff.
The online media continued to break out the negative news that the gym owner ran away with the money, which made matters worse.
Hotel apartments. There's nothing to say, if it's in a hot tourist city, it's a blessing.
Office. The occupancy rate of an office building is generally affected by rent, location, grade, and economic environment.
When the economic environment is bad, the decrease in revenue and popularity is serious for the overall efficiency of the complex.
Third, it is difficult to change the mainstream group
Today's mainstream social groups are the post-90s and post-00s, but this new generation has grown up in the Internet.
They are the main force of consumption, but they rely more on the Internet in "clothing, food, housing and transportation", and have no interest in offline traditional business.
On the contrary, the consumption in the mall is still the latter group of people, and no one can retire.
The post-60s generation is busy watching their grandchildren and traveling to make up for the physical and mental shortcomings of many years of work.
The post-70s generation has to take care of the old and prevent diseases, and the next has to take care of the young to get married, and they are on the way to make money if they don't get money.
The post-80s generation, as a marginal person in the workplace, goes to work conscientiously and gets off work tremblingly.
The black hole of education funds, that is, the gold cake falls into it without a trace of reflection, and if you take a mortgage, what else will you spend?
Fourth, the impact of the Internet on traditional business
There is only one reason for the prosperity of Internet e-commerce: "there are many poor people".
The poor look at the price and think that "cheap" is worth it.
Rich people look at the goods and think that "suitable" is worth it.
* Success is to always walk on the road of cheapness.
The industry is involuted and the industry is dying, and the whole people have embarked on the broad road of live broadcasting.
There is helplessness in the funny, if there is a better sunrise industry, will Yu Minhong and Luo Yonghao still bring the goods?
The Internet's low price, activity intensity, and unconditional return and exchange have all crushed traditional businesses.
The owner of the physical store can only look at the offline customers, and they are brought online by Internet celebrities in batches.
Rush
Hit
waves
Fifth, the burden of heavy assets
The 20-year real estate ** period has passed, representing the end of the asset-heavy era.
Once the excessively long ** cycle encounters an economic crisis, it is difficult to realize fixed assets.
Weak profitability cannot keep up with the speed of debt, and the disconnection of the capital chain is the day of the collapse of traditional business.
Nirvana
Pane
04 Whether the future will die or be reborn
The "ecosystem" derived from resource integration is the business model of the new era.
The integration of production and marketing integration resources, the different nature of the company is equivalent to the functional department, in the circle of mutual link and cooperation.
The customer resources of the companies in the circle are shared, and the customers also have special service channels, which makes me feel like walking on the red carpet, and throwing money in exchange for respect!
The transformation of light assets heralds the demise of traditional business.
However, when we re-examine the business development process of human society, deepen the psychological characteristics of human nature in multiple dimensions, and refer to the current global business situation, we come to the following conclusions:
The temporary demise of the commercial complex model is based on certain conditions, and in the future, when the nutrients are sufficient, it will be reborn again.
Under the influence of the economic situation, there is a problem with the consumer group:
The proletariat is powerless.
The middle class disappeared into the Jurassic.
The bourgeoisie is holding back its big move, but it does not exert its strength.
* Uncle appeared, with a basket of policy tools: easing restrictions, increasing welfare, reducing taxes and burdens, as well as repairing diplomacy, education reform and medical reform, etc., hoping to make everyone's life better.
The survival pressure of enterprises and individuals has been relieved, so that the whole people can recuperate and recuperate, and the economy can gradually recover.
With the economic conditions, from the picky quality and quality, to the pursuit of brand and service, is the recovery of consumer desire.
In the future, what can satisfy this desire will not be in the live broadcast room, but can only be in traditional business and return to the complex.
In fact, this is a closed loop that repeats itself.
We look forward to the rebirth of commercial complexes as we look forward to the spring of China's economic recovery.
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Concern. Crow.