One of the most critical factors in the rapid development of our country over the past 40 years is ".Cheap labor”。This has allowed China to complete the development process of other countries in two centuries in just a few decades. However,The basis for all this is our large and young population.
In 1980, the median age of China's population was just over 20, showing a great youthfulness. This young society has rapidly spawned earth-shaking change over the past few decades. However,Today's society is no longer young.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics,The median age of our population has risen to 39 years。According to data from the Ministry of Civil AffairsThe elderly population over 60 years old has exceeded 2800 million, accounting for 19 percent of the total population8%, marking that China has entered a moderately aging society.
Since 2012, China's median population age has risen rapidly. In just 10 years, that number has risen from 35 to 39。In stark contrast to this,The median age of the U.S. population has risen from 35 in 2000 to 38 today5 years old, compared to 28 years old in India. The rapid aging of the Chinese population has been describedfor "cliff-like" growth
The main root cause of the aging of the population is the sharp decline in China's fertility rate. In 2012, the number of births was 19.73 million, and only 10 years later, this figureIt fell to 9.56 million。Going back further, the number of births in 1990 was 23.91 million, and it was those born in 2020 who basically gave this generation a pension, while the number of births in 2020 was 12.02 million. This means that one young man has to feed two old people.
If this trend develops,In another generation, the number of births in our country may be less than in the United States, which is a worrying prospect. Consider that China currently has a population of 1.4 billion, while the United States has only 3With a population of 300 million, this change in population size is food for thought.
The intensification of the aging of the population will lead to a decline in the proportion of the working-age population and difficulties in recruiting workers, which will directly weaken the momentum of economic development. In addition, spending on social welfare, such as pensions and health care, will increase significantly, crowding out funds that could otherwise be used for investment and innovation.
In the past, we enjoyed the demographic dividend, but now we are facing an aging crisis. The demographic dividend is essentially a debt for the future, and we are at the moment of repaying the debt. Failure to pay off this debt effectively within the time frame will result in enormous social pressures.
Particular attention needs to be paid to the current problem of income distribution in our country. The vast majority of people still have low incomes, and even Shanghai, China's richest city, has a minimum wage of only 2,480 yuan。In contrast, countries such as Japan and South Korea, which have become developed countries, have a per capita income of more than 200,000 yuan.
In the transformation of population size, we need to face not only the arrival of an aging society, but also how to adjust the social structure, rationally allocate resources, and ensure sustainable development in the future. If fertility rates do not improve in the future, and if we are ill-prepared for an aging society, our large aging society may consume all the efforts we have built up.
For a populous country like China, the number of elderly people can reach 100 million, and more than 11 million people leave the labor market every year, which is equivalent to the total population of a small and medium-sized country. How to find a new impetus for development in the evolution of population structure has become a problem that we need to seriously consider.