Reporter Xin YuanThe Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China held on December 8 continued the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" mentioned last year when setting the general tone of next year's economic work, and at the same time proposed to "promote stability with progress, first establish and then break".
Analysts generally believe that "first establish and then break" means that in the context of economic growth is still under great pressure, the transformation of new and old kinetic energy will be more orderly, and the disposal of the real estate industry may be more secure.
In fact, "first establish and then break" is not a new term at the ** level. The Politburo meeting held in July 2021 proposed to "correct the movement of carbon reduction, first establish and then break". At the end of 2021, the ** Economic Work Conference once again mentioned that "to adjust policies and promote reforms, we must grasp the timeliness and efficiency, adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking down, and making steady progress".
At that time, the impact on carbon emission reduction work was relatively large, and it was necessary to promote carbon peak and carbon neutrality based on the basic national conditions of coal, and then we saw that the constraints of carbon emission reduction on economic development in 2022 were significantly weaker than in 2021. Zhang Deli, head of macro research in China and Thailand, told Interface News.
He pointed out that the Politburo meeting did not mention the specific areas of "first establishing and then breaking", and speculated that there may be two areas: one is real estate. Before the new leasing-based real estate development model takes shape, it is also important to promote the steady and healthy development of the current traditional sales-oriented real estate model. Greater efforts to promote the "guaranteed delivery of buildings" and greater efforts to stabilize housing price expectations on the sales side are the keys to promoting the formation of a virtuous circle in the real estate industry.
The second area is the traditional industries in the manufacturing and service sectors. Zhang Deli said that in recent years, China has increased its support for industries that meet the requirements of economic transformation and upgrading, green and low-carbon through monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy, but from the perspective of stable growth and stable employment, traditional industries are also very important. A better balance between preferential policies and resource investment will help the economy to achieve steady and long-term development.
Xu Gao, chief economist of Bank of China International, also wrote an article pointing out that the Politburo meeting took "first establishment and then breaking" as the general tone of the policy, in order to correct the current problems in the process of converting the old and new kinetic energy of China's economy, especially the real estate industry that has been excessively "broken" since 2021.
He said that from the launch of the "guaranteed delivery" policy at the end of last year, the "three arrows" policy of real estate financing and repair, to this year's "recognition of housing without loan" policy, ** has been trying to repair the real estate industry. However, the real estate industry has long fallen into a vicious circle due to the pressure of the "three red lines" policy, so even with the repair policy in the past year, the general tone of the real estate industry's policy is still tight, and it is still bringing "breaking" pressure.
When the Politburo meeting made it clear that the current policy is aimed at 'improving social expectations, consolidating and enhancing the upward trend of the economy', and requires 'enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation', the real estate policy needs to be adjusted significantly in the direction of easing in order to truly implement the requirements of the Politburo meeting. ”
How far the real estate policy, especially the financing policy of real estate developers, will go in the direction of easing, which will highly affect the direction of China's economy in 2024, as well as the expectations and confidence of all walks of life. Xu Gao said.
In addition, Dongfang ** said that based on the present, to be "broken" is based on the growth model of real estate and local land finance, to be "established" is more self-consistent supply and demand, technological upgrading of high-quality development, there is a transition period between the two, to properly deal with real estate and local debt risks, to prevent the economy from stalling due to transformation, which also means that the policy for real estate enterprise credit risk and local debt resolution has not ended, and next year will continue this year's characteristics.
Although "first establish and then break" is not a new term, CITIC ** Chief Economist Ming Ming believes that this word has been mentioned for the first time in the status of the general tone, indicating that the boundary of economic law guidance has been further broadened, and the relationship between the transformation of old and new kinetic energy has been highly valued.
Ming Ming said that on the one hand, in recent years, China's structural reform and deployment and control have achieved remarkable results, and the incremental performance of high-level manufacturing and service industries is relatively bright. On the other hand, traditional resources, manufacturing and basic services still showed solid resilience in the cycle, contributing to the total volume. The overall risks of small and medium-sized banks, local bonds, and real estate are controllable, and the risk mitigation work may be more moderate, stable and long-term.