Wang YimingVice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges
The following views are compiled from Wang Yiming's speech at the CMF Symposium on Macroeconomic Hot Issues (Issue 79).
Number of words: 3484 words.
Reading time: 9 minutes.
1. China's economy has entered the track of trend recovery
This year is a year of economic recovery after three years of new crown epidemic prevention and control. This is very different from the situation that has been hit by the pandemic in the past three years. The 2020 Economic Work Conference emphasized the promotion of sustained economic recovery, in 2021 it emphasized the focus on stabilizing the macroeconomy, in 2022 it emphasized the overall improvement of economic operation, and this year's Economic Work Conference clearly proposed to consolidate and enhance the trend of economic recovery. This indicatesChina's economy has entered the track of trend recovery. Although the economic recovery will still be a process of wave-like development and zigzag progress, the trend is generally good.
This year, the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain, geopolitical conflicts have occurred frequently, and the world economy has recovered sluggishly. Domestic economic development is facing some difficulties and challenges, mainly due to the lack of effective demand, the weak willingness of residents to consume and enterprises to invest, the overcapacity of some industries, the weak social expectations, and the fact that there are still many risks and hidden dangers. Among these difficulties and challenges, insufficient effective demand is still a prominent contradiction facing the current economic operation. The low level of CPI and PPI** should reflect the lack of demand. CPI**0 for the first 11 months3%, PPI down 31%。Therefore,Expanding effective demand remains an important task at present.
In such an internal and external environment, China's economy has withstood external pressures and overcome internal difficulties, and on the whole has shown a trend of relatively high growth rate, stable employment, low prices, and a balance of payments. From the perspective of international comparison, China's economic growth rate is significantly higher than that of developed economies. In the IMF's October month, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2 this year1% and 07%, compared to 2% in Japan, China's economic growth rate is second only to India and significantly higher than that of Brazil, Russia, South Africa and other economies. In 2022, India's GDP was 338 trillion dollars, China is 18$1 trillion, if according to the IMF's October **, India's economy will grow by 6 this year3% with an increase of $200 billion, and China with an increase of 5% with an increase of $900 billion. Therefore,China remains the world's largest engine of economic growthIt contributes more than 30% to global economic growth.
There are many important expositions at this ** economic work conference, such as,"We must take adhering to high-quality development as the last word in the new era", "we must plan major measures to further deepen reform in an all-round way, and continue to inject strong impetus into promoting high-quality development and accelerating Chinese-style modernization", "we must plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform and implement financial system reform". Taking high-quality development as the last word in the new era is a major judgment of overall and strategic significance made on the basis of in-depth analysis of the new historical conditions and stages of China's development, and a comprehensive understanding and grasp of the practice of China's modernization and the general laws of modernization in various countries. Another example, emphasis"Integrating non-economic policies into the evaluation of macroeconomic policy orientation coherence".This argument has a very strong practical relevance. The impact of some non-economic policies on economic operation is sometimes no less than that of economic policies, and the inclusion of non-economic policies in the evaluation of macroeconomic policy consistency can avoid mutual cancellation between policies and ensure that they work in the same direction to form a joint force.
Second, more policies are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment
This ** economic work conference emphasized"It is necessary to intensify macroeconomic regulation and control," "to produce more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment," and "to appropriately intensify the active fiscal policy."embodiedNext year, macroeconomic policies will be moderately intensified.
1. China still has policy space, and there are conditions for moderately increasing macro policies. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the low level of debt has created conditions for moderately increasing the debt level, arranging a moderate deficit, budgetary investment, transfer payments, and implementing structural tax and fee reduction policies. From the perspective of monetary policy, China's price level is low, and the Fed will no longer raise interest rates is a high probability event, which also provides space for monetary policy.
2. Strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies. Countercyclical adjustment focuses on hedging economic fluctuations and maintaining the smooth operation of the economyCross-cyclical adjustment takes more into account the lagging effect of policies, and focuses on prevention. We should not only intensify counter-cyclical adjustment, but also avoid the lag impact of excessive policy intensity through cross-cyclical adjustment, avoid the pressure of inflation and asset bubbles in the later stage brought about by "flood irrigation", and combine macro policy counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment to promote the steady and long-term development of China's economy.
3. The active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency. There is still room for China's fiscal policy, and the key is to make good use of the policy space, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, and strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategic tasks, including focusing on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system, accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries, supporting the digital and intelligent transformation of enterprises, and further enhancing the momentum of developmentEfforts should be made to expand effective demand, make overall plans to make good use of the new special debt limit and budgetary investment, and support the expansion of effective social investmentEfforts will be made to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, green and low-carbon development, and ensure and improve people's livelihood. At the same time, consideration should be given to enhancing fiscal sustainability.
This meeting asked:"Reasonably expand the scope of local ** special bonds used as capital".。At present, some areas have reduced fiscal revenue, land transfer fees have declined, and local finances are facing difficulties, so it is of great significance to reasonably expand the scope of special bonds used as capital to ensure the construction of key projects, guide and drive effective social investment, and alleviate the financial pressure of local governments.
4. A prudent monetary policy should be moderately flexible, precise and effective. It is necessary to strengthen the dual adjustment of the total amount and structure of money. In terms of aggregate volume, it is necessary to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and maintain the stability and sustainability of credit growth. In particular, the meeting proposed to actively revitalize the financial resources that have been inefficiently occupied and improve the efficiency of the use of funds. At present, the balance of loans in China's banking system exceeds 200 trillion yuan, and the balance of social financing exceeds 300 trillion yuan, and in the past few years, about 20 trillion yuan of new loans have been added every year, and more than 30 trillion yuan of social financing has been added. In terms of structure, it is necessary to give full play to the role of structural excellence, and continue to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, rural revitalization, private small and micro enterprises, advanced manufacturing, green development, inclusive pension and other fields. **The financial work conference proposed to do a good job in the "five articles", which are all where the structure needs to play a role.
* Also proposed at the Economic Work Conference"Promote the steady and moderate decline of social financing costs".。Appropriately lowering interest rates is an important means to reduce social financing costs. However, there are still two ways to cut interest rates. On the one hand, U.S. interest rates remain high, and rate cuts will still be affected by interest rate differentials. On the other hand, the net interest margin of commercial banks has also fallen to a historic low.
3. Consolidate and strengthen the three focal points of the economic rebound
* The Economic Work Conference put forward the need to consolidate and strengthen the positive trend of economic recovery before emphasizing the consolidation and enhancement of the economic reboundEffectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, and improve social expectationsThese three aspects are the focal points for consolidating and enhancing the positive trend of economic recovery.
One isEffectively enhance economic vitality. The most important thing to enhance economic vitality is to enhance the vitality of market entities, and it is particularly important to stimulate the vitality of the private economy at present. Since the beginning of this year, the first has issued opinions on promoting the development and growth of the private economy, indicating that the first attaches great importance to stimulating the vitality of the private economy. In the first 11 months, private investment stopped falling and stabilized, and after deducting real estate development investment, private investment increased by 91%。The key to the next step is to put the policies in place, including further liberalizing market access, solving the problem of "letting go of the open and the dark, and not letting go of the virtual", encouraging and attracting more private capital to participate in major national projects, the construction of key industrial chain projects, and effectively responding to the concerns of private enterprises, protecting the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs in accordance with the law, and ensuring market access, factor acquisition, fair law enforcement, In terms of the protection of rights and interests, a number of landmark measures have been implemented to enhance the confidence of private entrepreneurs, so that private entrepreneurs can focus on innovation and entrepreneurship without distractions, and continue to rejuvenate their vitality.
The second isPrevent and mitigate risks. A series of measures have been taken for real estate risk, and this time it is emphasized that the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems are met without discrimination, which is very critical to solving the problem of the capital chain of real estate enterprises. Real estate has an important impact on residents' wealth, consumption, and market expectations, and is the "bull's nose" that currently affects economic operation. It is very important to solve real estate risks and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market to improve the overall economic operation. We should step up the construction of affordable housing, the construction of infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages, which will play an important role in driving real estate-related investment and alleviating the pressure on real estate. In terms of local debt risk, debt swaps and other debt measures are being taken, and at the same time, it is also necessary to promote local governments to resolve debts through measures such as revitalizing or revitalizing assets. The next step is to promote the market-oriented transformation of the financing platform and form a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local debts. Fundamentally, to solve the problem at the institutional level, it is also necessary to promote a new round of reform of the fiscal and taxation system. The disposal of local ** debts should also grasp the relationship with economic stability, so as to develop while turning debts into debts, and coordinate the relationship between risk resolution and stable development.
The third isImproving societal expectations. To improve expectations, it is necessary to effectively respond to social concerns, and it is necessary to strengthen policies and reforms, and take targeted measures to address issues of social concern. At the same time, it is necessary to eliminate noise and effectively boost market confidence.
There are many new growth points for China's economy next year, including scientific and technological innovation to activate new industries, new forms of business and new models, industrial transformation and upgrading, especially the development of strategic emerging industries, new increments, growth space brought by the improvement of urban functions and the development of producer services, new growth momentum brought by green transformation, and new momentum injected into economic development by reform and opening up. Overall,Next year, China's economy will be able to strive for a 5 percent growth rate.
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