This was not said by Xiao Lone, but by Shoigu at the 2023 annual summary report. Although Xiao Lonely felt that the substance of the content was still debatable, it was not too far from the basic facts, and if further follow-up combat operations could be carried out, it would be very beneficial to Emperor Pu's strategic concept.
Just after Shoigu's summary report came out, the Russian Aerospace Forces lost three Su-34s in succession, casting a shadow over the overall situation. To say that Ukraine's air defense forces suddenly opened up, this little lonely also believes it;If you want to say that the Russian Aerospace Forces are careless, you can also believe that the enemy is lonely;If it is said that the direct troops of NATO will end up directly, Xiao Lonely also believes it;In short, a loss is a loss, regardless of whether it was killed by the Patriots or the Avengers, it is useful to discuss tactically, and strategically, the Russian army will not retreat to Moscow on all fronts because of the loss of three fighters.
Despite the victory in the air, on the ground battlefield, the Russian army did achieve a full-fledged initiative in winter.
From the initial establishment of a strong stronghold by smuggling at the company and platoon level, to the later stage with a large number of FPV units, long-range artillery groups and even the main force of the Southern Air Force, four marine brigades were assembled to force the Dnieper River, which made people dream of returning to Kharkiv for a while, thinking that the southern front that Russia fought best was very likely to lose Crimea.
However, in December, the Russian 104th Airborne Division, which received new FPV equipment, battalion and company-level four-axle unmanned attack aircraft, "Iskander", and Su-34 support, regained a little bridgehead area that the Ukrainian Marine Brigade had worked hard to build over the past three months in a short period of time, and basically returned to the original Klinki ferry area. Although the Su-34's freedom of movement was restricted after receiving long-range support from the Patriots, there was still no solution to the FPV that could resist civilian jammers, and in order to keep the Klinki crossing, the Ukrainian marines were almost changing the line of defense with their heads.
On the Zaporozhye battlefield, the offensive in Borodino Village, which was fully supported by the NATO officer corps and the Ukrainian government in the summer, gathered the 9th and 10th military headquarters, and the total strength of 17 regular brigades and 5 defense battalions under its jurisdiction, forming an absolute advantage over the Russian army in the face, which was originally expected to be completed in 8- In September, the Russian-occupied Melitopol land bridge area was only 80 kilometers deep, but the units were unable to continue the offensive due to heavy losses after taking the village of Borodino, and then four brigades moved east to Donetsk, and the Zaporizhzhia offensive ended abruptly.
In December, the Russian army, which was strengthened by the Airborne Forces, began to **, and a large number of NATO armored equipment that was too late to be withdrawn was laughed at by the Russian army, which means that the little territory that Ukraine spent a lot of equipment and personnel in the summer and autumn was almost lost.
On the battlefield of Donetsk, in the summer, the Ukrainian army poured all its strength into the northern front, and the strongholds taken for several months were almost lost in December, whether it was the Mut region, the Avdiivka region, or the Kupyansk region, the Russian army almost fought on the entire front.
* The Ukrainian army in the Mut area has suffered the greatest losses, it is no longer able to maintain the front, the Russian army has launched a wide attack on the front with three brigades and three regiments, and the Ukrainian army will not be able to maintain the summer defense line without the support of the campaign reserve or even the strategic reserve, and will sit back and watch the Russian army complete the pincer offensive in this area.
The Ukrainian army in the Avdiivka area launched a counter-assault on the two brigades of the Donetsk militia in front of it after receiving reinforcements from the 47th brigade, but the Donetsk militia had extremely strong defensive capabilities, and soon consumed the counter-assault momentum of the two brigades. However, the three regular Ukrainian brigades on the defensive can't even do the two militia brigades in Donetsk, and it is difficult to imagine whether the main force of the Russian army will be able to stabilize the defense after the main force of the Russian army turns in the next step.
In the Kupyansk region, the 115 Brigade of the Ukrainian army from afar temporarily withstood the offensive of the Russian army, but the main forces of the Russian army are also not in this direction, if the two battlefields on the southern front cannot contain the elite units of the Russian Airborne Forces for a longer time, then for the Ukrainian army in this area, this winter will be very long.
Except for the news on the battlefield, which is mostly positive, the rest of the statistics are also positive. Shoigu's statistics of the Ukrainian army's manpower losses have been as high as more than 380,000, and NATO's official disclosure is also more than 300,000**, although the Ukrainian side only admits 250,000, but also admits that there are more than 80,000 who are unable to engage in combat missions but can continue to "work".
However, the highest estimate in Western open source intelligence has been as high as 500,000 losses, and more are recognized as 200,000 dead and missing, and 250,000 disabled and decommissioned. If calculated according to 450,000, the Ukrainian army has been conscripted for two years, and only 650,000 are left with a total of 1.1 million consumption, taking into account the important land, logistics, rectification, and rotation training, the Ukrainian front line has indeed reached the point of tight manpower (if you don't believe it, you can refer to the Yangtze River defense line back then, how many people are on paper, and how many are left that can be pulled out to fight. ）
On the Russian side, the number of public battlefield deaths and missing is 50,000, and the Western open source is generally recognized as 70,000. Even if calculated according to 70,000, the maximum loss of manpower of the Russian army is only 150,000, and the lower limit is 100,000. The first wave of the Russian army is 300,000 troops, plus the original contract soldiers, excluding Wagner, Donetsk, Crimea and other militia units, the Russian army still maintains at least about 500,000 complete rotation troops. In terms of strategic reserves, the Ukrainian army only has a total of 4 brigades left, and these four brigades have begun to transfer personnel and equipment to the eastern front. And NATO intelligence shows that the Russian army has assembled a "Chasov Yar Assault Cluster" containing 5 brigades, 7 regiments and 8 battalions in **Mut alone, with a total strength of 770,000, and a full-scale assault will be launched at any time on the area west of **Mutter.
The only news in Zelensky's favor is that someone is finally willing to provide the F-16. As soon as the end of this year, the first aircraft of the first batch will arrive. But....Even the shells are almost out of supply, and the F-16 is returnedWhat Ukraine lacks most now is green dollars and all kinds of NATO shells of the caliber of the meter, and it is better to replace a fighter with equivalent shells.
Therefore, if Russia intends to complete its strategic mission against Ukraine in 2024, this winter is a better opportunity. If we can capture and annihilate the 8-10 NATO-standard brigades of the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine, we will gain a very favorable strategic position in the coming year. Even if it does not achieve its strategic goals in 2024, Russia will need a large-scale annihilation of Ukraine's living forces to buy time. In the same way, if Ukraine cannot keep the precious new NATO brigades, then next summer will no longer belong to Ukraine, and next winter will not be.