Approaching the end of the year, looking back on the bond market in 2023, Ni Kan, assistant general manager of the fixed income investment department of IB** and director of the public bond investment team, believes that this year's bond market is a small bull market, exceeding the general expectations of the market at the end of 2022.
This year's economic recovery has not immediately become a trend upward cycle, but has seen a phased pressure. Ni Kan analysis: "This is the economic fundamental background of the bond bull market, in this scenario, with the interpretation of the second half of the year's debt'**, the monetary policy has also been increased, promoting the interest rate center, especially the medium and long-term interest rates, and the overall decline of high-coupon assets." "In the course of market evolution throughout the year, Ni Kan was deeply impressed by the changes in fiscal policy, monetary policy and capital side. He noted that in the context of "asset shortage", institutional behavior continues to be an important driver of the bond market.
Looking forward to 2024, Ni Kan said that first of all, from the macroeconomic level, under the policy force, the economy in the first quarter may most likely usher in a "good start". However, after the first quarter, the domestic new and old kinetic energy switch superimposed global risk opportunities coexist, the whole year, although the certainty of domestic economic repair is high, but the slope of the recovery remains to be further observed, the uncertainties mainly come from the marginal changes in fiscal and real estate policies and the corresponding actual effects.
Secondly, focusing on the policy and capital aspects, Ni Kan believes: "In 2023, the deficit rate will 'break 3%', and the fiscal will most likely continue to exert force in 2024. ”
Combined with the new capital regulations that will be officially implemented in 2024, Ni Kan judged that it will be generally good for high-grade credit bonds and interest rate bonds. "For assets such as certificates of deposit, financial bonds and subordinated bonds, based on the current theoretical calculation caliber, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the current bond market is diversified. We expect that the actual impact may be limited as the demand for stable allocation of funds such as wealth management and insurance increases. ”
Ni Kan predicts that in 2024, the bond market will be dominated by the overall bond market, "In terms of rhythm, the bond market as a whole in the first quarter may continue to be cautious, but from the second quarter to the second half of the year, the economic vitality may still be mainly repaired, and the bond market will usher in allocation opportunities under the expected difference." ”
Original**: China** Daily.