1. The sword of Damocles hangs high!The data on RMB loans was also not optimistic, with RMB loans increasing by 109 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan, and the credit growth rate fell by 01 percentage point, a new low in the same period of 5 years, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by -290.7 billion year-on-year, and although the residential housing loans increased by 22.8 billion, they were only better than in 2022.
It is worth mentioning that the amount of money M2 is 10% and continues to fall, while the M1 narrow currency has dropped sharply by 06%, down to 13%, which is significantly lower than the market expectation of 2%. The scissor difference between M2 and M1 is getting bigger and bigger. Broad money (m2) = m1 + savings deposits (including demand savings deposits and time savings deposits).
M2 continued to grow, while M1 declined. To put it simply, the currency continues to release water (m2), but the currency does not have much intention to continue investing. The housing market is a kind of investment, which is reflected in the fact that the housing market is average, people are not willing to expand investment, people are not willing to buy houses, people are not willing to start a business, although there is a lot of money in the market.
In short, the government is leveraging the economy, and residents and businesses are still waiting and watching. The most fundamental reason is that, as the Economic Council put it, "effective demand is insufficient" and "social expectations are weak". However, it is a pity that the two important meetings have ended, and there is a lack of expectations to stimulate the economy mainly for stability, which also means that the policy expectations for December are basically over.
Second, the Beijing Stock Exchange broke out again!The concept of state-owned enterprise reform broke out again, and Shanghai Jianke staged a "heaven and earth board".
The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 on Thursday is indeed the floor of the sky, up to 3 points, and the end of the direct dive is left at 079% of it, why does the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 only do **, because this sector fluctuates greatly, so fast in and fast out is the safest. Foreign investors bought Wanhua Chemical, O-film, and Changan Automobile respectively obtained a net **4800 million yuan, 47.2 billion yuan, 44.4 billion yuan. Kweichow Moutai was sold in the first net seller, with an amount of 2200 million yuan, that is to say, foreign capital bought chemical smart cars, the automobile sector, and sold the liquor sector.
3. Hu Xijin issued a document denying the rumors of clearing A-shares.
Hu Xijin issued a document denying the rumors of liquidating A-shares. Hu Xijin updated the profit and loss information of his account the previous day, saying that he had an additional loss of 7,932 yuan on December 13. On June 26 this year, Hu Xijin announced the opening of a ** account and officially entered A-shares, in fact, even if Lao Hu cleared his position, he would definitely say that he did not clear it, because A-shares are not allowed to sing short and any negative remarks, especially for an influential person like him, if he dares to say that he has cleared A-shares, he will be invited to drink tea immediately, I think after these months Lao Hu should understand how difficult it is to play A-shares, and when to enter the market is a loss.
Fourth, on the news side, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in December and continue to maintain the target range of the federal interest rate at 525% to 550% between. According to the data, the median policy rate expectation of FOMC members for 2024 is 46%, implying a 75 basis point rate cut next year, slightly more than expected.
In addition, their median policy rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 are 36% and 29%。As the Fed showed a better-than-expected bare move, the CME FedWatch tool also showed traders ramping up their bets on rate cuts in 2024, with the current probability of a 125 and 150 basis point cut combining to 60%.