In a few hours, 2024, a year full of infinite possibilities, will officially kick off.
Recently, various institutions have released the 2024 real estate market outlook and **, what changes will we witness in the real estate industry in the new year?
Middle Finger Research Institute:It is expected that the relevant policies introduced by the real estate market will continue to be optimized and adjusted, and there is room for policies at both ends of supply and demandCorporate financing conditions are expected to improve;The funds and supporting measures of "guaranteed delivery of buildings" may be further followed up to promote the resolution of project delivery risks;At the same time, it is expected that the rules for land auctions in various regions will continue to be relaxed, driving the activity of the land market to increase.
Zhuge looking for a house:In 2024, the policy will continue to be loose to adapt to the new supply and demand trend of the market, the price of new homes will rise structurally, and the price of second-hand housing will continue to be under pressure. The policy tone direction is to loosen the restrictive policies in core cities, such as the reduction of the down payment ratio, the adjustment of the mortgage interest rate, the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, and the adjustment of the price limit policy. The financial policy continues to exert force, bearing the brunt of resolving the risks of the real estate market, supporting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises without discrimination, and the "three not less than" has been implemented, the financing conditions of private real estate enterprises have improved, the debt risk of real estate enterprises has been reduced, and the delivery effect has continued to be strengthened.
Cushman & Wakefield:In 2024, the market is expected to complete the bottoming out in 2024 and achieve it by the end of the year
Kerry:** The real estate policy is expected to exert force from three aspects, one is to support the construction of the "three major projects" financially, and use this as a starting point to promote the construction of a new model of real estate developmentThe second is to implement supply-side financial support such as "three not less than";The third is to reduce taxes and fees on housing transactions to stabilize demand and then stabilize the market. Local regulation and control policies are expected to be further optimized, and there is still room for loosening the regulation and control policies of first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, and the first-tier partial or targeted relaxation of purchase restrictions and adjustment of the number of years of exemption of transaction taxes and fees are optional, and second- and third-tier cities may fully unbundle restrictive housing purchase policies and increase fiscal and tax incentives.
CICC:Sales of newly built commercial housing are expected to stabilize in 2024, but real estate development investment still faces great challenges. Under the premise of considering the further strengthening of the real estate policy response and the smooth progress of the transformation of urban villages, it is expected that the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing are expected to stop falling and stabilize next year, and achieve a slight increase year-on-year (estimated area +0.).4%, amount +19%), but the area of new construction is limited by the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises year-on-year or difficult to turn positive (expected to be -54%）。
Industrial ***The relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market has undergone significant changes, and property sales in 2024 may show a trend of low and then high. With the promotion of the transformation of urban villages and the improvement of supply and demand policies, the annual sales area is expected to be -90%, the amount is expected to be -75%, development investment is expected to be -80%, the current industry is in the adjustment stage, but there is support in the medium and long term.
The industry will usher in a new model of urban village transformation and affordable housing construction. The transformation of urban villages is conducive to expanding domestic demand and optimizing the real estate structure, and the overall scale of urban villages in 35 cities is estimated to be 12300 million square meters, 10 years to drive sales 176 trillion yuan;Affordable housing is conducive to alleviating housing contradictions in large cities and effectively promoting real estate transformation and high-quality development.
China Securities Construction Investment***The credit repair of real estate enterprises is expected to accelerate in 2024, promoting the stabilization and recovery of demand. The construction of three key projects, including affordable housing, urban village transformation, and "level-emergency dual-use" public infrastructure, has become the starting point for building a new real estate development model and helping the market to repair and build a bottom. In the medium and long term, the annual demand for residential buildings in China is about 900 million square meters. In terms of investment, it is recommended to focus on two main lines: demand restoration and urban village transformation.
Shen Wan Hongyuan**:In the short term, the combination of supply and demand will lead to short-term pressure on the industry. On the demand side, in the context of a weakening macroeconomy, the rising unemployment rate, the slowdown in income growth, and the high leverage ratio of residents have comprehensively promoted the short-term purchasing power and purchase willingness of residents to weaken, which may lead to a continued downward trend in the real estate market.
It is estimated that the annual investment amount of this round of urban reform is 15 trillion - 21 trillion yuan, driving the sales area of 0Billion 9-1300 million square meters, corresponding to the annual sales area accounted for about 6%-10% of the country. The follow-up urban village transformation + housing dual-track system will be the key to breaking the situation in the real estate industry, among which the transformation of urban villages is the key point of short- and medium-term policy force, and is expected to accelerate, maintaining the "optimistic" rating of the real estate sector.
Haitong***In the context of the weakening of high-return industries, the pressure on the first end, and the shortage of assets, the risk-free rate of return and the average interest rate level of the market will enter a continuous downward channel in the future. Recovery will not happen overnight, and the timing of investment sales will be mismatched. In the process of destocking, developers have to go through the production cycle of "de-commodity inventory-land inventory-commodity inventory-land inventory-land inventory". When the developer does not fully realize the production saving progress of "destocking the land", it will not arbitrarily replenish the land and commodity inventory.
After the expected economic growth rate has declined, investors' preference for long-term cash flow in traditional industries has been increasing, and new financial instruments such as REITs have brought developers to redefine their businesses.
National Business Daily.