In 2023, the market will open high and go low, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will decrease by 17% year-on-year3%, buyer confidence is still being repaired.
On the evening of December 31, the China Index Research Institute released the TOP100 list of China's real estate enterprise sales performance ranking in 2023, with the total annual sales of the top 100 real estate companies being 6,279.1 billion yuan, and a total of 16 real estate companies of 100 billion yuan were born.
Poly Development topped the list with 420.7 billion yuan, and it is also the only "400 billion real estate enterprise";Vanke, China Shipping, China Resources, and Greentown are among the "300 billion camps".There are 116 real estate companies with tens of billions of yuan. In addition, the monthly sales in December were at the end of the month, and the sales of the top 100 increased by 20 month-on-month8%。
Liu Shui, director of enterprise research at the China Index Research Institute, pointed out: "In 2023, the sales of key real estate companies as a whole will still decline significantly, and the industry concentration will decline. The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 17 percent year-on-year3%, compared with last year's decline of more than 40%, the decline is narrowing. The market share of the top 100 real estate companies is 345%, down 48 percentage points, in recent years, the market share of TOP100 enterprises has continued to decline, and the industry concentration has continued to decline. ”
Among some of the companies that have announced sales targets, only China Resources and Yuexiu have exceeded their sales targets, and the completion rate of Jianye targets is 1415%, the completion rate of Tiandiyuan is 1084%。
It is worth noting that the sales target of real estate companies in 2023 is relatively conservative and has generally been lowered, with only Yuexiu Real Estate raising its sales target to 132 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou maintaining its sales target for 2022.
The China Index Research Institute pointed out that as the industry has entered a period of adjustment, in recent years, more and more companies have stopped increasing sales targets and pursuing large-scale development, but have pursued more stable development by actively controlling sales scale.
Judging from the statistics of the average monthly sales of real estate companies in the past four years by the China Index Research Institute, there are obvious sales peaks in June and December from 2019 to 2022, but the sales for the whole year of 2023 show a trend of high before, low after and at the end of the year.
The sales of real estate companies in all camps have declined. Among them, the average sales value of the top 10 real estate companies is 27440 million yuan, down 11 from the previous year7%；The average sales volume of TOP11-30 real estate enterprises is 851100 million yuan, down 17 from the previous year8%；The average sales value of TOP31-50 real estate enterprises is 420600 million yuan, down 19 from the previous year0%；The average sales volume of TOP51-100 real estate enterprises is 198300 million yuan, down 282%。
In this case, there are 16 real estate companies with sales of more than 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 from the same period last yearThere were 116 real estate companies with 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 14 from the same period last year. There were 19 enterprises in the second camp (50 billion to 100 billion yuan), a decrease of 4 from the same period last yearThere were 14 enterprises in the third camp (30 billion to 50 billion yuan), a decrease of 14 from the same period last yearThe fourth camp (10 billion to 30 billion yuan) increased by 8 from last year to 67.
In the market downturn, in 2023, real estate companies will pay more attention.
Layout of first- and second-tier cities.
The data shows that 30 tens of billions of enterprises are represented by enterprises.
The total contribution of first- and second-tier cities accounted for 854%, an increase of 3 from 20224 percentage points, of which the sales of first-tier cities increased by 2 compared with the previous year46 percentage points to 216%, up for the second year in a row.
Specifically, Shanghai and Hangzhou have sales of 10 billion yuan on behalf of enterprises with sales of nearly 300 billion yuan, Beijing and Guangzhou are slightly weaker, and Shenzhen is inferior to Chengdu, Suzhou, Wuhan, Xiamen and other hot cities, ranking 10th.
The market activity in some strong second-tier cities is increasing, and the proportion of sales has increased slightly, with the sales contribution reaching 638%；The third- and fourth-tier cities are under pressure, with a performance contribution rate of 14 in 20226%, down 33 percentage points.
From the perspective of urban agglomerations, the sales of 10 billion enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao (Mainland), and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations contributed a large amount, accounting for ., respectively62%, accounting for 6533%, respectively62 and an increase of 007 percentage points.
Affected by factors such as the continuous optimization of real estate control policies, the continuous net inflow of population, and the reduction of down payments and mortgage interest rates for two consecutive years, the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has strong demand in the region, the market is the first to recover, and the proportion of sales has increased by 1. year-on-year24 percentage points.
Looking forward to 2024, Liu Shui pointed out that in 2023, the sales performance of real estate central state-owned enterprises will be more resilient, and the performance of private real estate enterprises will be greatly affected by the impact of market adjustment. The recent policy points out that "no one is discriminatory" to support the financing of real estate enterprises, and proposes "three not less than", actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, and build a new model of real estate development. In 2024, under the comprehensive impact of macroeconomic improvement and supportive policies, the sales of real estate enterprises are expected to bottom out and stabilize, and the risk clearance of real estate enterprises will be accelerated.
National Business Daily.