In the past month, I think the world has ushered in a big bull market, but many friends still don't believe it, no, the Dow Jones index rose again on Friday, and the whole week rose as high as 242%, will the bull market spread to A-shares next?That's what we're going to look at this week.
Let's first review this week's market**, the Shanghai Composite Index was **3040 on Friday97 o'clock, Friday**303164 points, range increase -031%, GEM refers to last Friday**193794 o'clock, Friday**192628 points, range increase -060%, the Dow Jones index closed at 36245 this week50**2.42%, and the S&P 500 closed the week at 459463 points **077%, Nasdaq closed the week at 1430503 o'clock **038%。Judging from the data, it can be concluded that the U.S. stock market has been on the same channel for two consecutive weeks, and the A-share market has not been on the same channel for two consecutive weeks, so even if the U.S. stock rises again next week, there is no inevitable connection with the A-shares.
Let's take a look at the main performance of the market this week. The inflow and outflow of funds is as follows: [Note: This is the average increase in the sector, not the increase in the sector index].
Judging from the market situation this week, the leading sectors with large trading volume (more than 100 billion) are the Internet (131.5 billion), communication equipment (189.8 billion), and software services (284.8 billion), and the top sector with a turnover rate (more than 10%) is hotel catering (18.).06%), the Internet (15.).61%), culture, education and leisure (14.).69%), software services (1301%), communication equipment (12.).69%), the capital has obviously flowed into the TMT sector led by the Internet, communications and media. The leading sector with a large trading volume (more than 100 billion) is chemical (162.3 billion), and there is no ** sector with a high turnover rate (more than 10%), that is, the funds have not obviously flowed out of a certain direction.
Despite the data, if you look at the flow of funds last week, you will know that it is still the same thing: last week, the funds were obviously concentrated in real estate, and the funds flowed out of the TMT track. The stock game market that has been criticized last week has not changed, that is, last week's inflow and outflow this week, and this week's inflow and next week's outflow may also be outflow, the stock game is the first market, if you don't guess wrong, next week's plate rotation will change again, there is no power to continue to do long, and the bull market is very difficult to appear.
Judging from the publicly available capital situation, northbound funds are net **16 this week0.7 billion, the financing balance (borrowed money**) was dominated by net inflows throughout the week, with a net inflow of 107 billion;The balance of securities borrowing and lending (selling stocks and shorting) increased by 24 billion. On the whole, this week's capital inflow was dominated by net inflows, of which domestic capital inflows were about 1 billion (about 10 billion last week) and northbound funds were about 1.5 billion (last week's inflows were about -3 billion). Judging from the data, the northbound outflow turned to inflow at the end of this week, but there is one important event: MSCI rebalancing caused passive inflows, if this impact is excluded, in fact, northbound funds are still active net outflows. On the other hand, unlike the large inflow in the previous period, the pace of inflow of financing in the two weeks this week basically stopped, because the previous period was more and more buying, and now it is stagnant, as a data analysis, I can understand that these funds are beginning to become hesitant, or the original determination to go long is weakening. To sum up, as the index continues to decline, the market's long momentum has weakened significantly.
Finally, let's take a look at the trading volume: the average daily volume this week is 79684.8 billion (last week's average volume was 8876..)6.9 billion), this week's trading volume is about 10% lower than last week, indicating that the investment atmosphere in the market is weakening, as for why it will weaken, it has been made clear last week, the recent market is just speculation for speculation, from the Beijing Stock Exchange to the chairman's daughter, all of them are revealing that the current market does not have any medium-term investment opportunities, and funds have no choice, either to leave the market, or only dare to hype the concept, and have no interest in performance-driven value investment. We know that A-shares are mainly composed of blue chips, white horse stocks composed of a large framework, if these varieties continue to weaken, the index downward will then affect the performance of the theme, just like the Beijing Stock Exchange, from **to**to**.
Analyze the U.S. stock market again, the Nasdaq is at a high this week, but the weekly line is still rising, and now I find that the Nasdaq is a little late to get out of the bull market, I thought the bull market was open when I had the first week, and then I kept saying that it was 4 weeks, and this week is the fifth week. Due toI was bullish the first weekFrom my point of view, of course, the Nasdaq will continue to be optimistic, but just like the ** in August and November, ** will also have a period of adjustment, and it will not rise all the time, if there is a 2-3 week adjustment in December, I think it is normal. My first bullish point was the first week, I will continue to be bullish, and you are only ready to participate in the fourth week or next week, this view is not necessarily right, but it is a high probability event to continue to hit new highs after adjustmentSo whether the Nasdaq goes up or down next week, my view is the same: bullish!Bullish!Keep bullish!(Different starting points may lead to different perspectives).
After the above analysis, I don't think anything has changed in the market: U.S. stocks continue to be bullish, and A-shares continue to weaken. As for whether the two are warped boards, I don't understand analysis, and I don't want to analyze, obviously there is a bull market in front of you, why do you have to analyze the varieties that continue to adjust?Why don't you study why strong varieties are strong?In fact, this idea can be extended a little further: because A-shares are still structured, we should analyze why some varieties can be strong (such as the coal sector, the Beijing Stock Exchange, etc.), rather than why some varieties are falling and falling, and when is the bottom (such as photovoltaics, new energy, etc.). If you understand this, you don't necessarily have to participate in U.S. stocks, and it's okay to follow the structurally strong A-share variety game, but I think U.S. stocks may be more stable.
Before looking ahead to next week's A-shares, let's revisit last week's market view, which looked like this:
The divergence of funds is still the same, the bull market is not possible, first treated as a structured **, the style of small-cap stocks is still the mainstream, and at the same time, pay attention to whether the real estate sector has news to cash in to drive the index to pick up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell this week, and the fall in the face of resistance is the result of no volume cooperation. If we can't regain the ground we lost this week next week, we could find the bottom again. The GEM refers to the trend is very clear, that is**trend under a weak**, if it weakens again next week, it is still possible to write a new low in the year this year, this index does not even have a stop falling signal, why discuss the arrival of the bull market?The direction of the theme, the current market news is invalid, try not to touch the good news of the impact of the **, 800 billion average market, speculation in small-cap stocks, micro-cap stocks are still OK, but last week's direction judgment was wrong, this week I don't dare to mention the direction, if you can't keep up with this rhythm, it is also a good choice to wait and see or move to overseas markets, look, U.S. stocks are about to hit a new high!Judging from last week's outlook, the view is basically correct: there is no bull market in A-shares, and the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are all weak reversals, so this week continues to find the bottom, and the theme stocks are dominated by small-cap stocks, but I don't dare to mention the direction because I know it. Finally, when it comes to the new highs of U.S. stocks, the expectation is right. It can be seen that this idea is correct, and we will continue to observe the market with this line of thought next week:
1. The enthusiasm for capital entry has weakened, which means that the market will weaken, do not predict the prediction of the main force, if the market is still like this, please be prepared for the ideological preparation of the structured ** + stock game, or wait for the low absorption after the US stock market retreats!
2. The Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out this week, but did not hold the 5-week line, and the lower shadow line could not constitute an effective support, but the upper shadow line of the previous week clearly saw the pressure of the 10-week line, and if it could not break through the 10-week line, it would continue to be bearish. As I said last week, this bottoming ** is obviously different from the previous two times, there is no crisp and powerful yang line**, it is more like a broken repair, because last week has been repaired, it may be a high probability to continue to find the bottom.
3, the gem refers to last week in the yin has lost the 5-week line, this week continues to decline is the confirmation of the loss of the 5-week line, because the gem has been the trend in the past three years, this trend has not seen a decent ** strength, talk about the fall is a little early, if there is a big white line next week to regain the 20-week line of course good, but without this signal, this is the standard ** trend, it is necessary to avoid risks.
4. The direction of the theme, it has been confirmed that this is a stock game, and there is a high probability that this week's ** plate will not continue next week, and this week's ** plate does not have ** objective statistical probability, and it is not worth lurking. Small-cap stocks have been speculated on the chairman's daughter, will there be the concept of speculating on the chairman's grandson next week?Everyone knows that it is a "pure play group", just act on the spot, don't take it seriously, otherwise you are still standing guard. U.S. stocks have been repeatedly reminded for 4 weeks, don't tell me you plan to participate next week, isn't this chasing up?To be optimistic, you can wait until it falls back before participating.
Stream-saving:U.S. stocks have risen for 6 consecutive weeks, even if there is an adjustment in December, I am still optimistic, because I found out at the first time, and I also accept the possibility of adjusting if there is more rise, but it is not recommended to chase the rise next week. In terms of A-shares, the weakness is still the same, the rotation of the plate under the stock game market is accelerating, the big opportunity is gone, and the small opportunity can follow the capital speculation.
Special note: 1. The above content is only a personal investment diary and does not have a guidance function.
2. The views are for reference only, and investors need to judge whether to follow the ideas.
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