Kunpeng Project
At the end of 2023, the economic war between China and the United States has reached a major juncture, and many believe that it is possible to decide the winner in a few years.
Will the situation we face in 2024 be better or worse?What changes have been made to U.S. economic policy toward China this year?What impact does this have on us ordinary people?
We are talking about this topic today because we have recently found two not-so-good signs, and I feel that it is very necessary to talk about the changes in the situation of the Sino-US economic war in 2024. The first sign, recently said that with the arrival of the dollar interest rate cut cycle, the United States has entered the first year, and the impact of inflation easing and other factors, the pressure on the US economy has decreased, and we may usher in a small honeymoon period for the US economy in 2024.
The second sign, someone left a message in the comment area saying that his family's affairs were not handled well, so he blamed others for treating you badlyOur own economy is not doing well, real estate is not doing well, ** is not doing well, what is the matter with the United States?
The first sign is obviously overly optimistic, and the second sign is either ignorance of the economic war between China and the United States, or a lack of understanding of the determination and seriousness of the United States to suppress us.
In our opinion,The economic war between China and the United States is far more complex and cruel than ordinary people think, and the situation in 2024 may not be so optimistic.
History has proven that the competition and replacement of major powers is a long-term historical process, and it is a cruel and ruthless process, which is in no way inferior to a hot war. In 1894, the total value of the United States' manufacturing industry surpassed that of Britain, and then after more than half a century of struggle, it experienced two world wars mainly in Europe, especially World War II, which completely crippled Britain, and the United States gradually took over the hegemony of Britain.
In this process, the United States has launched multiple rounds of attacks in the financial and economic fields against Britain for a long time, and they have mainly used three tricks.
The first was to use the two world wars to continuously weaken the British economy, and immediately cut off aid to Britain as soon as the end of World War II ended, causing British finances to collapse in 1947.
The second move is to implement a liberal policy, use huge interests, through constant negotiations, to infiltrate the countries of the Commonwealth with their own power, and to strike at the closed system of the British Commonwealth.
The third move was that since the 1930s, the United States has continuously weakened Britain's financial hegemony, and finally used the Bretton Woods system to win.
The decline of empires is similar, these three tricks happen to be fiscal, ** and financial, and at present, the United States has also experienced crises of varying degrees in these three aspects, isn't the situation very similar?From this point of view, two things happen. First, in the face of three major crises, Americans will only struggle more and more, and become more and more crazy. Second, the decisive moment will not happen in 2024.
So, will the situation get better or worse in 2024?
On the big picture, there are three major battles to be fought between the Chinese and US economies, and it is impossible to stop without winning or losing, and the same will be true in 2024.
The first is financial warfare. History is always strikingly similar, and how the dollar once defeated the pound can only understand that the final outcome of the financial war can only be the complete collapse of the dollar systemOtherwise, the Americans, like the British in history, will always want to restore the glory of the empire.
So this financial war, whether the dollar continues to raise interest rates or cut interest rates in 2024, is far from over.
The second is science and technology warfare. This is the main battlefield envisioned by the Americans at present, because technology is the best tool for setting limits on national development, and it is also one of the decisive factors at the bottom. The United States issued a final rule on chips in October, which imposed an all-round blockade on lithography machines and their industrial chains. In recent days, the U.S. Department of Commerce has announced that it will launch an investigation into the purchase of traditional Chinese chips by U.S. companies from January 2024, which is a sign of continuous increase.
The third is the ** alliance war. Both sides have their own circle of friends, the United States has allies in developed countries such as Europe, Japan and South Korea, and we have the Belt and Road Initiative, the BRICS organization, and the cooperation mechanism of the South countries, etc.
These three battles are obviously not over, and not only will they continue in 2024, but the Americans will only continue to intensify.
So, is it true that some people say that the US economic policy toward China will tend to be moderate in the first year?
The reason many people hold this view is that the current United States usually pays more attention to the domestic economy and the interests of voters.
The economic tearing between China and the United States is obviously "killing 1,000 enemies and injuring 800 of itself." Every time the United States launches an economic war, it will strongly backlash itself and harm the interests of its own people. One of the more obvious examples is that the U.S. consumer market is strong, but there are not enough cheap substitutes for Chinese-made goods, so inflation is difficult to control.
Therefore, some people believe that the US economic policy towards China will tend to be moderate in 2024.
On December 14, at the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the U.S.-China National Committee, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen made three points about China's economic policy in 2024, which is obviously focused on risk management, and Biden obviously wants to maintain stability.
However, based on the consideration of political correctness, the economic policy toward China can only be tightened in principle, and cannot be relaxed.
Therefore, the United States will continue to increase its weight in financial warfare and technology warfare, such as finance-related fields such as **, housing market, and bond market, as well as technology industries such as chips, and the confrontation is expected to become more intense.
At the same time, the ** war, which is directly related to the voters, will tend to ease, so the three major battles we talked about did not mention the ** war. Therefore, the economic war between China and the United States in 2024 will only become more complicated and stalemate. This is a pressure and test for China's economy, and it will directly affect the vital interests of each of us.
In 2024, China and the United States will not decide the winner, but we are fully prepared, so we will no longer be afraid.